Posts Tagged ‘bullion’

Commodity Weekly Commentary 2nd – 6th August

Bullion counter hammered down last week as prices fell like nine pins after investors wind up their long positions in gold and silver. Gold slid nearly $100.0 from the historic record highs, recorded June 21 at $1265.30 an ounce, affected by traders reducing their stakes and investments in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest exchange-trade fund.

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The absence of fundamentals from Europe, led traders to turn to the US for signs of global recovery, but the disappointment came from US durable goods report which slumped in the month of June by 1.0 percent, compared with a revised -0.8%. Base metal pack extended their previous week gains as global inventory draw down and gains in the euro boosted the metals despite a surprise decline in U.S. orders for long-lasting
goods.

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Western world unwrought aluminium stocks fell to 1.192 million tonnes in June from a revised 1.306 million tonnes in May, industry data showed. Moreover, gains in equity market also supported the prices as investors anticipate robust demand in near future. In energy counter crude oil prices wiped out its previous week gains and just fell from the level of $80 after the U.S Energy department reported a surge in inventories in the US. However, crude oil prices managed tom conquer some part of the lost territory mainly on the back of the softer US dollar index.

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However, natural gas futures ended higher last week, backed by firmer cash prices and a government report
showing another light weekly inventory build despite ongoing concerns about too much supply.

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As regards agro commodity, the week gone by majorly known for profit booking at higher levels in many commodities. Traders preferred profit booking in most of the spices as they became overbought in the market. Cardamom futures caught the attention of traders as they traded in lower circuits throughout the week, supported by weak spot market.

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After trading in positive territory for many weeks, finally jeera, turmeric and pepper saw pause in the rally as stockiest released some stocks at higher levels. Good monsoon and improved sowing in producing area dragged down guar counter in both spot and future market.

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What surprised the market was the upside move oil seeds. R M seed, refined soya oil and crude palm oil witnessed nonstop four week rally on confident move in CBOT amid fall in dollar index.

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Maize futures ignored the positive sentiments of CBOT and moved down on profit booking. Additionally, soyabean saw good short covering. Good export demand supported mentha futures to recover from its week low. Weak sentiments in spot market continuously hammered the potato futures.

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BULLION TURNING TO BILLION

Gold has always been one of the favorite avenues for investors to put their money during any economic uncertainty. We’re into a new phase of this bull market that’s been going on since 2004. Factors like the credit crisis, ups and downs in the global economy, the response of the governments and the monetary authorities set up a very positive environment for gold, not only in the near term, but many years to come.
On the contrary,jewelry demand, however, has fallen off a cliff—it’s almost non-existing right now and a lot of scrap is coming into the market due to very high prices. This is also one of the reasons for which we had witnessed some range bound moves in gold prices in past few months. (Two dynamics in the gold market were pulling against each other as strong investment demand and very weak jewelry demand.
Gold is up by roughly 250% since 1999 and approx. 25% from Sept. 2008 till date as we’re seeing money coming into the gold sector. I think the gold market is out of crisis mode. It has been recognized as an alternative, as a safe haven hedge. Sentiment among investors, especially individuals, is very positive. It’s mainly high net worth individuals who are buying the stuff up with a long-term view. Over the period of time we have also seen that investors are putting more and more money into gold as an investment. However, this increase in investment has come from tiny levels. Retail investment in gold remains tiny comparative to investments in equity and bond markets. Also, the physical gold market is such a tiny market comparative to equity, bond, currency and derivative markets that even small flows from these massively larger markets can result in outsize moves up in the gold price in future.

Gold has always been one of the favorite avenues for investors to put their money during any economic uncertainty.
Gold Coin

We’re into a new phase of this bull market that’s been going on since 2004. Factors like the credit crisis, ups and downs in the global economy, the response of the governments and the monetary authorities set up a very positive environment for gold, not only in the near term, but many years to come.

On the contrary,jewelry demand, however, has fallen off a cliff—it’s almost non-existing right now and a lot of scrap is coming into the market due to very high prices. This is also one of the reasons for which we had witnessed some range bound moves in gold prices in past few months. (Two dynamics in the gold market were pulling against each other as strong investment demand and very weak jewelry demand.

Gold is up by roughly 250% since 1999 and approx. 25% from Sept. 2008 till date as we’re seeing money coming into the gold sector. I think the gold market is out of crisis mode. It has been recognized as an alternative, as a safe haven hedge. Sentiment among investors, especially individuals, is very positive. It’s mainly high net worth individuals who are buying the stuff up with a long-term view. Over the period of time we have also seen that investors are putting more and more money into gold as an investment.

However, this increase in investment has come from tiny levels. Retail investment in gold remains tiny comparative to investments in equity and bond markets. Also, the physical gold market is such a tiny market comparative to equity, bond, currency and derivative markets that even small flows from these massively larger markets can result in outsize moves up in the gold price in future.

IMCX-India’s Fourth National Commodity Bourse, To Be Launched Soon:)

IMCX-to-be-launched

International Multi Commodity Exchange (IMCX)

Commodity trading in India has a long history & was started much before it started in many other countries.

Today, apart from numerous regional exchanges, India has three national commodity exchanges namely, Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) and National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE).

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THE RISING WAVES

These commodity exchanges have been performing extremely well in these years.

The turnover of commodity exchanges in India surged by 31% in the April-August period, led by a surge in trading of farm goods.

Total value of trading at the Commodity Exchanges during the fortnight from 16th August 2009 to 31st August 2009 was Rs. 3,04,651.88 crore.

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NEED OF THE HOUR

In India, futures’ trading in commodities is zooming.

India’s commodity exchanges have witnessed major action this year and are getting into investing and managing new commodity bourses.

Another commodity exchange may help using the opportunities better ; thereby improving trading volumes of specific contracts & be more efficient is the price discovery, which in turn will attract a wider constituency of participants from the entire commodity value chain i.e. government, producers, marketers, importers, exporters etc.

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THE FIRST STEP

A new commodity exchange, International Multi Commodity Exchange is going to launch very soon under the market regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC).

IMCX is promoted by Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd (IBFSL) and India’s biggest state-run trading firm, MMTC Ltd, and part-owned by more institutions.

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The exchange is planning to start operations next month as the country’s fourth national commodity bourse & is ready to grab its share of a futures market that is growing 30% a year.

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BUILDING TECH – PLATFORM

The US-based exchange services provider Millennium Information Technology (MIT) has been awarded the contract for implementing the technology platform for the aforesaid exchange.

The US-headquartered MIT provides application solutions to financial and telecom industries.

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THE PILLARS OF FOUNDATION

IMCX will be the first commodity bourse in India to comply with the criteria of revised ownership criteria that makes the participation compulsory of public sector units or cooperatives.

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Currently, Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd. (IBFSL) holds 40% of the exchange, state-run MMTC Ltd. holds 26%.

Forward Markets Commission rejected the United Stock Exchange of India’s (USE’s) 10% stake buy in the bourse, on the grounds that the stock exchange is yet to be fully recognized.

So far, Indiabulls has diluted 24 per cent to HDFC Bank, Yes Bank and Indian Potash Ltd & IDFC + Krishak Bharati Cooperative Limited (KRIBHCO) have purchased a stake of 5% each in Indian Commodity Exchange, which was to be sold to the USE earlier.

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BUSINESS OPERATIONS

The exchange will start operations by launching 10-12 contracts in bullion, metals, energy and agricultural commodities with some uniqueness in contracts to attract more volume.

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·The exchange will launch gold mini and gold 1 kilogram contracts in the bullion segment. The gold contracts will have multiple delivery centers in five-six cities.

· In base metals, it is planning to offer copper, zinc and lead or nickel futures, and in the energy segment it will launch crude oil and natural gas contracts. Delivery-based contracts will be launched in the base metal segment, where contracts are mostly non-deliverable at other exchanges.

·The exchange has also tied up with several logistic providers for warehouse facilities, & in the next phase of expansion, the exchange may create its own warehouses

·Guar seed, rapeseed, refined soyoil, soybean and turmeric will be among the agricultural contracts.

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Gold Touches a New High of Rs 16,220 per 10 gram !

Gold-surges-alltime-high

Due to the speedy buying by stockists in advance of the festival season, in the midst of the global rates climbing to an 18-month high of $ 1,018.15 an ounce, GOLD rose by Rs 250 to touch a new high of Rs 16,220 per 10 gram in the gold market.

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However, it is said that after the metal in London increased to an 18-month high, the buying action gathered momentum as stockists indulged in buying gold.

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While, the concern was that a global economic revival may strengthen inflation in the midst of a weak dollar, enhancing demand for the metal as an alternative investment.

On the other hand, gold in overseas markets advanced 10.60 dollar, or 1.1%, to 1,018.15 dollar an ounce whereas silver coins also touched a record high of Rs 31,800 per 100 pieces.

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Further, standard gold and ornaments spurted by Rs 250 each to Rs 16,220 and Rs 16,070 per 10 gram, respectively.

On the other side, sovereign increased by Rs  50 to Rs 12,950 per piece of 8 gram.

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Marketmen said the precious metal might see new peaks in the coming days once the festival and marriage season starts on September 19.

Current upsurge maybe purely out of reason of stockists buying as retailers refrained from buying gold during ‘Sharaadh’, the ongoing inauspicious fortnight in Hindu mythology.

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According to analysts, gold may climb a high level of $1,100 an ounce in the overseas market in the next six months.

Silver ready shot up by Rs 700 to Rs 26,600 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 910 to Rs 27,570 per kg.

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Silver coins rose to an all-time high by gaining Rs 200 to Rs 31,700 for buying and Rs 31,800 for selling of 100 pieces.

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However in between due to the increasing investment demand with the commencement of festival and marriage season, gold imports observed a huge rise during August at 21.8 tonnes as compared to the previous month where the import of the precious metal was 7.8 tonnes this year.

This shows that India’s gold imports have trebled in a gap of one month.

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Gold Prices Increased to a Record High @Rs 15,900 !!

gold rates

Driven by last minute heavy purchases by traders in order to build up stocks before the start of the inauspicious ”Sharad”, the gold prices increased to a record high of nearly Rs 16,000 per 10 gram in the national capital.

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However, the costly metal spurted by Rs 200 from Thursday’s level at scale a new peak of Rs 15,900 per 10 gram.

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Additionally, the prices of silver coins too skyrocketed to an all time high of Rs 31,200 per 100, pushed up by a steep rise of Rs 700 up in silver rates at Rs 25,300 per kg.

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Moreover, the raise in the gold rates was due to heavy demand from jewellers and stockists before Sharad.

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Additionally, the rally was also sparked by gold”s rise in the overseas markets to a six-month high, towards 1,000 dollars an ounce.

Further the ambiguity in the stocks, which remained more unstable in last one-week, left very less choice for the investors but to invest in bullion as a safe haven.

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However, in the last one week the BSE index Sensex fell for four consecutive days, but gained 290.79 points on Friday at 15,689.12, the last trading day of the week whereas silver ready surged by Rs 700 to Rs 25,300 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 560 to Rs 25,700 per kg.

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Moreover, the standard gold and ornaments shot up by Rs 200 each to Rs 15,900 and Rs 15,750 per 10 gram respectively.

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