Posts Tagged ‘BSE’

CURRENCY FUTURE – BETTER FUTURE FOR CURRENCY TRADERS

There is good news for currency traders who would like to trade in currency futures. After trading in dollar-rupee futures, now corporate and retail investors will also be able to trade in currencies such as Euro, and Japanese Yen.

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Currently dollar-rupee futures are trading on three recognized exchanges, NSE, MCX Stock Exchange and BSE. But the currency derivative is liquid only on the first two bourses, which have together posted an average daily turnover of around Rs. 18,566 crore in December, up from a couple of thousand crore when the currency futures trading commenced in the second-half of 2008.

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NSE commenced currency futures trading in India on 29th August 2008. It has witnessed healthy growth in the turnover and open interest positions during its first completed month of currency futures trading in India.

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Brief of currency future

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Currency futures contracts are those contracts which allow investors to hedge against foreign exchange risk and traders to speculate on the movement in Currency. Since these contracts are marked-to-market daily, investors can exit from their obligation to buy or sell the currency prior to the contract’s delivery date.

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Major Profitable accounts

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The introduction of new currency pairs will go a long way in helping market participants, especially international traders, hedge against cross-currency Volatility and mitigate risk in export and imports across all major traded currencies and will add depth to the exchange-traded currency futures market.

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Along with the above mentioned participants, Currency futures trading in India has generated huge interest among Indian retail investors and traders.

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There is a strong demand for information gathering about the intricacies of currency futures from small investors and enterprises. For instance, entities that have borrowings in Euro will get one more avenue, apart from the over-the-counter market that is dominated by banks, to hedge them against volatility in the 16-nation common currency.

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Due to the transparent mechanism of execution in currency futures trade, increased participation by corporations and high net worth individuals, too, could be witnessed.

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Contract specification

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As in the case of the dollar-rupee futures, the contract size has been fixed at 1,000 units each for pound and euro, and 100,000 units for the yen, across 12 concurrently available contracts, one for each month.

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The contracts, like the existing dollar futures, would be cash-settled in rupees and the settlement price would be at RBI’s reference rate for all the four currencies.

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However, there are different initial margins (cash) that an investor needs to put up for trading each currency on day one and subsequently though this has not been changed for the dollar.

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The market regulator has also decided to modify the calendar spread margin to be applied on the dollar-rupee contracts.

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All the new contracts would be quoted in rupee terms, while the outstanding positions would be in the respective foreign currency terms.

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The maximum maturity of the contract would be 12 months, while all monthly maturities from 1 to 12 months would be made available.

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The contracts would be settled in cash in rupees.

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The client-level position limit has been capped at 6 per cent of the total open interest position.

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Responses:

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Market participants responded enthusiastically to the inclusion of these new currency pairs. The three new currency pairs clocked Rs. 1,98,761 contracts resulting from 7,762 trades at a total value of Rs. 1,277.13-crore on the NSE on day first, which is approximately comes out to be 9.61 percent of the total turnover in value terms. Out of the three new pairs, euro-rupee (EURINR) was the most traded currency pair clocking 1, 82,013 contracts.

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Total contracts and open interest in EUR/INR and GBP/INR:



First Traders inception of currency futures 🙂

The first trade in the new currency pairs was executed by East India Securities, IndusInd Bank executed the first trade amongst banks. Union Bank was the first PSU bank to trade and execute the single largest trade. ICICI Bank and State Bank also participated actively. This market has now become bigger than the cash segment of the equity market, which recorded average volumes of Rs. 20,000 crore last month.

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The beauty of exchange-traded currency futures are that they allow a participant to directly buy or sell the Dollar,Euro,Yen or GBP without having an underlying exposure, so it’s also a view-based market. One can take this opportunity of investing smartly in currency futures and gain by every tick.

Stay Tuned for More updates 🙂

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Indian Stock Market Reaction To Indian Budget :)

Indian stock markets, reacted positively to the budget, with a benchmark index breaking free to close 237 points higher than its previous weekly close. 🙂

The 30-share sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) moved up 237.92 points or 1.47 percent to end Friday at 16,429.55 points, 237 points above its previous weekly close at 16,191.63 points.

The broader S&P CNX Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) too posted gains to end the week at 4,922.3 points, up 77.4 points or 1.57 percent.

Broader market indices, however, ended the week in the red with the BSE midcap index closing 0.54 percent down and the BSE smallcap index 1.67 percent lower.

“Though it is not possible to keep everyone happy, the finance minister has done a commendable job. This was evident from the way markets reacted to the announcements,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, the equity head for brokerage firm SMC Capitals.

“The budget did help in breaking from the side-ways movement, but it is not going to help much going forward. A lot of the budget news has been factored in and one should not expect a major rally,” he added.

The top gainers during the week included Hindalco (up 7.7 percent), Maruti Suzuki (up 6.8 percent), L&T (up 6.2 percent), Hero Honda (up 5.5 percent) and ICICI Bank (up 5 percent).

Among top losers were ITC (down 6.5 percent), Reliance Communications (down 2.8 percent), Tata Power (down 2.2 percent), Hindustan Unilever (down 2.2 percent) and Reliance Industries (down 0.6 percent).

Data with markets watchdog Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) showed that foreign funds were net buyers during the week, having bought scrips worth $313.56 million.

Benchmark indices in the US ended slightly lower this week with Dow Jones industrial average dipping 0.8 percent, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index 500 down 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq composite falling 0.3 percent.

FLASHBACK 2009


For India, 2009, been a great year with the return of a stable government at centre, good FII inflow, 80% increase in the Indian stock market and less terror attacks. But globally, H1N1 influenza and a series of bankruptcy by some big international giants are some events, which we never want to happen again.

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Putting behind the worst annual performance ever, Indian equities were on a roll in 2009, catapulting a key index by more than 80 percent, to close the year with one of the best gains among emerging markets.

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At closing bell Thursday, the 30-share benchmark sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) was ruling at 17,464.81 points with an impressive gain of 7,817.5 points, or 81.03 percent, over the previous year’s close at 9,647.31 points.

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This was the best annual performance since 1999 and was in sharp contrast to 2008, when the Sensex ended with a hefty loss of 10,639.68 points or 52.45 percent making it the third-worst performing equities index among emerging markets.

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The story was no different at the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the other major bourse in the country, where the broader 50-scrip S&P CNX Nifty gained a hefty 2,241.9 points or 75.76 percent when it closed at 5,201.05 points Thursday.

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The main factors that made key indices rise like a Phoenix was resilience of the Indian economy and impressive growth despite global slowdown that also reflected in corporate earnings and the return of the foreign institutional funds.

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According to markets watchdog, the Securities and Exchange Board of India, such overseas funds pumped about $17.46 billion into the Indian stock markets in 2009, as opposed to a net sale worth $13.135 billion for the first time in over a decade..

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‘The performance in 2009 surpassed the expectations of even the most optimistic person. There were not many places left for foreign funds to invest and India was among the few attractive destinations,’ said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capitals.

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Even as the Sensex gained 7,817.5 points, some of the 13 sector-specific indices stood out because of their performance — the metals index appreciated the most, up 233.68 percent, while auto followed with a gain of 204.16 points..

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Similarly, the indices for information technology was up 132.78 percent, capital goods gained 104.26 percent, consumer durables rose 97.8 percent, banking gained 83.9 percent, state-run enterprises inflated 80.54 percent, power moved up by 74.3 percent.

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On the whole, the year started on a promising note with the government unveiling a second dose of fiscal stimulus to help the economy weather the adverse impact of a slowdown in the global economy — touted as the worst in eight decades.

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As a result, the Sensex rallied till Jan 6 and gained 7.13 percent in just three days of trading. But then came the confession of a multi-million dollar fraud by Satyam Computer founder B. Ramalinga Raju, triggering a 7.25 percent fall in just one session.

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Till February, the barometer index was oscillating between 9,000-odd points and 10,300-levels. But as signs of a prolonged economic recession receded the world over, Indian equities found more takers and reflected in steady rise in the index.

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By the beginning of May it was trading comfortably around the 12,000-point mark and gave a thumping welcome to the electoral victory of the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance — that even saw suspension of trading as indices hit the upper circuit twice.

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On that eventful day of May 18, the Sensex stood at 14,284.21 points, gaining 2,110.79 points, or 17.33 percent, over the previous close, while Nifty also rose 17.3 percent, or 636.4 points, to close at 4,308.05 points.

The remaining months of the year saw a steady rise in the index with interim corrections even as events like the presentation of an industry-friendly national budget and a high growth for the economy during the second quarter boosted investor sentiments.

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Looking at individual stocks that go into the Sensex basket, the top five gainers during 2009 were Tata Motors, up 398.33 percent at Rs.792.60; Mahindra and Mahindra, up 293.23 percent at Rs.1,080.80; Sterlite Industries, up 230.45 percent at Rs.861.65; Hindalco, up 211.23 percent at Rs.160.75; and Maruti Suzuki, up 199.88 percent at Rs.1,559.65.

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Only three stocks ended lower — Bharti Airtel was down 54.02 percent at Rs.328.80; Reliance Communications was down 23.92 percent at Rs.172.90; and Reliance Industries which ended lower since the company declared a 1:1 bonus.

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Looking ahead, the markets expect some more action once the government’s divestment programme gets underway even as investors have their fingers crossed on when the Sensex will breach the magical 21,000 mark.

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So, overall, the year 2009 has been one of the most significant chapters in the stock market growth with an increase of 80% in its value. Further, we keep our spirits high on FM’s comment that Indian economy can grow at 7.75% in FY10.

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Global Market Outlook 2009 and 2010 :)

SMC Market Outlook

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With markets giving returns on investment more than 79% in 2009 and showing a strong sign of recovery from mid 2009 on the back of strong domestic demand, policy reforms and stimulus packages, 2009 calendar year emerged as the best year for investors since 2000.

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FII’s have once again proved to be the front runners in terms of the inflow, pumping more than Rs 82,000 crore in the Indian market this calendar.

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But 2010 promises to be another testing year as fiscal and monetary stimulus in many of the world’s major economies begins to wane.

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After being in consolidation for most of the month, in the week gone by the domestic markets suddenly jumped back to life and closed at their highest in 19 months as investors rushed to buy stocks on renewed optimism, after foreign direct investment into the nation jumped 60% in the first eight months of this fiscal year.

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The FM`s comments on GDP growth and encouraging cues from global markets also boosted the market.

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Both the indices, Sensex and Nifty made a new high for 2009 on the eve of Christmas, rekindling the festive spirit.

Bulls were in a mood of rejoice as Christmas took Nifty to a new high of 5,197.90.

The year ends with more than a spark of hope, and next year seems to be a stable and profitable one.

However, we believe that markets would continue to be volatile and hence it is important to manage risk in the coming year too.


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For the forthcoming week, markets may remain volatile as traders will roll their positions in the derivative segment from December 2009 series to January 2010 series ahead of the expiry of the near month December 2009 contracts on Thursday, 31 December 2009.

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On the flip side higher advance tax figures by India Inc which suggests better Q3 December 2009 results, may support the market.

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Corporate advance tax payments for the quarter were up 44% to Rs 48,300 crore against a 3.7% decline in April-June quarter and a 14.7% increase in July-September quarter.

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The global developments also need to be seen for any further directions.

Furthermore, food price index data for the year to 19 December 2009 will be closely watched which is going to release on Thursday, 31 December 2009.

The high food price inflation is a major worry for the policymakers as they contemplate a right approach to tame hike in inflation which seems to be more of a supply side issue.

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The next quarterly review of monetary policy is scheduled on 29 January 2010 which may also give some direction to the markets.

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On the global economic front, the US economy grew at a revised annual growth rate of 2.2% in the third quarter, much slower than initially projected.

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Japan’s unemployment rate rose to 5.2 percent from 5.1 percent in October, for the first time in four months in November, an indication job growth may not be strong enough to support the economy’s recovery from its deepest postwar recession.

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The world stock markets are not ready to react on the downside and after every consolidation they are moving up only.

4960 on nifty is strong support as was mentioned in last week magazine and the nifty touched there and moved up sharply.

Even the base metals and stocks are not reacting to the strong dollar.

Till the trend of stock markets is up, one should be playing from the long side of it.

Nifty has support between 5050-4970 and Sensex between 17100-16700 levels.

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New Year celebration may result in thin trading this week.It may impact domestic bourses as well.

Regarding outlook, dollar index will give next direction to precious metals. If it notices a pause in its rally then precious metals may trade in a range or vice a versa.

Base metals will remain volatile.

Gap between lead and zinc should shrink gradually.

Fresh buying in steel may keep nickel at higher side.

If US crude and other inventories continue to decline then fresh buying will stimulate in crude oil.

However, it already saw spiky moves hence upside is limited.

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Bank deposits, BSE Sensex Move in Reverse Direction

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) market capitalisation and bank deposit levels move in diametrically opposite directions. In an economy that is on shaky ground, bank deposit levels go up, but when there is optimism, market cap goes up, reveals a 34-month study conducted by New Delhi-based SMC Capitals.

The elements of fear and greed (which drive the capital markets) are clearly visible in the trends seen in the allocation of assets by
investors in terms of cash and stocks. An attempt to compare the BSE market cap levels (over the period starting January 2007), with the aggregate bank deposits in the banking system shows the relative measure of the entire market capitalisation of BSE as percentage of aggregate bank deposits in the entire banking system. This is a reflection of the level of risk appetite in the investor community.

For instance, in January 2007, BSE market cap at Rs 3,779,000 crore as a percentage of aggregate bank deposits was 152 per cent, which means BSE market cap was 1.52 times more than the entire bank deposits at that time, that was Rs 2,485,000 crore.

When the market started recovering since March 2009, the BSE market cap as a percentage of aggregate bank deposits crossed 100 per cent level and at present, these level is at about 138 per cent.

BSE market cap at the end of November was Rs 5,793,000 crore, while bank deposits stood at Rs 4,196,000 crore, data from SMC Capitals shows. Latest data on bank deposits is available only till November.

As the bull market cap kept racing ahead during 2007, these levels of BSE market cap, as a percentage of aggregate bank deposits, have kept rising. At the peak of the bull market, that is by December 2007, these levels reached 235 per cent.

Simply put, BSE market cap at Rs 7,169,000 crore was more than double the Rs 3,047,000 crore kept in bank deposits.

“What it means is that the deposits available with sche-duled banks put together can’t even buy half of BSE stocks. This was probably the sign of ‘excess optimism’ in the capital market,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head of SMC Capitals.

However, by the time the bear market started in 2008, this level of BSE market cap as percentage of aggregate bank deposits has consistently kept falling. By the time the markets touched the bottom in February 2009, this level fell to 74 per cent.

This means that with the aggregate bank deposits available with the banking system, one can buy all the BSE-listed stocks and will still be left with 26 per cent of the deposits. This probably marked the sign of excess fear in the system, said Thunuguntla. By this time, the BSE market cap was to the tune of Rs 2,862,000 crore, whereas the aggregate bank deposits were to the tune of Rs 3,848,000 crore.

CESC Bags 140 mw Hydro Power Project in Himachal

CESC Ltd, the Power utility, has bagged a hydro power project from the Himachal Pradesh government on a competitive bidding process. The company has been allocated one project in Himachal Pradesh at Lara Sumta, Vice Chairman Sanjiv Goenka told.

He also said that the company would make an investment of Rs 46 billion as equity component in its power projects over the next 4-5 years and would require about Rs 100 billion as debt component for its projects.

CESC currently trading marginally lower by 0.58% at Rs 393.05. The stock hit an intraday high of Rs 396.90 till now, as against the 52-week high of Rs. 410. The stock hit a low of Rs 392 during the day. The stock had hit a 52-week low of Rs 180 on 12 March 2009.

The stock opens at Rs. 395.05 at BSE. The total traded volume of the scrip on BSE till now stood at 14147.

Meanwhile today, the BSE Sensex is trading with marginal losses of 7.42 points, or 0.04%, at 17,111.61. It has touched an intraday high of 17,275.19 and low of 17,068.37.

On BSE, 2,876 lakh shares were traded in the counter and out of that 1,110 stocks are in positive while 1,703 stocks are on he sellers” radar.

AB Nuvo has an equity capital of Rs 125.60 crore as of March 2009. The face value per share is Rs 10. At the current price of Rs 393.05, the P/E multiple stood at 11.99 with book Value of 233.87 and P/BV at 1.68.

Considering the current price, the stock had outperformed the market over the past one month till 13 November 2009, rising 5.26% as compared to the Sensex”s return of 1.55% and NSE Nifty”s of 2.09% return. It outperformed the market in past one quarter ending September 14, 2009, gaining 10.14% as against 5.53% rise in the Sensex and 6.13% rise in NSE Nifty.

CESC is a fully integrated power utility with its operation spanning the entire value chain: right from mining coal, generating power, transmission and distribution of power. We serve 2.3 million customers within 567 square kilometers of Kolkata and Howrah, delivering safe, cost-effective and reliable energy to our consumers. Even after 100 years of service, we still feel younger than ever.

The Company has posted a net profit after tax of Rs 1260 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2009 as compared to Rs 1240 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 7860 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2008 to Rs 9850 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2009.

Dubai Woes to Hit India Hard? “No” Says India’s Think Tank :)

 

Dubai Woes to Hit India Hard? "No" Says India's Think Tank


Indian policy-makers
are not really worried over the potential adverse impact on the country’s economy because of the multi-billion-dollar debt default risk faced by Dubai World, ranked among the largest conglomerates in the region.

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Commerce Minister Anand Sharma said “India is a very large economy. It is a resilient economy”.

“I don’t think some development in real estate in Dubai will have an impact on the Indian economy” he added.

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🙂

He also said “As far as India is concerned, the housing, real estate sector and construction industry are all doing well.

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This is confirmed by the increasing demand for construction materials, cement and steel,”

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Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla also saw little impact of the Dubai World’s woes on the country’s economy.

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Though he was a trifle more circumspect and preferred to watch the situation before hazarding a guess.

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“We will have to study what the issue is, what is the problem, what will be the possible implication if any for the Indian economy, the people and corporates,” Chawla told.

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Asked if the crisis will impact money flows into India,since the Gulf region accounts for over half the total inward remittances worth over $25 billion annually from expatriate Indians,

Chawla said: “It’s unlikely.”

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The state-run Dubai World stunned the global financial world Thursday when it announced it would need to restructure its debt, estimated at $59 billion, to preempt default and asked creditors for a six-month deferment.

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The conglomerate, which has a host of companies under its fold, has interests in a wide range of businesses such as realty, infrastructure, logistics and economic zones.

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And that is not just in the region but across a clutch of countries including India.

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Indian equities reacted adversely to the development, with the benchmark sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) down as much as 634.16 points, or 3.76 percent, midway into the trading session Friday.

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It later recovered and closed with a loss of some 220 points, or 1.3 percent over the previous close.

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🙂

Indian markets have rallied more than 100 percent from the lows a year ago,mostly backed by news of recovery and not necessarily on fundamentals,”

said Jagannadham Thunuguntla of brokerage firm SMC Capital.

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“This is why such news will have a negative impact on our markets and we will be dragged down,” Thunuguntla, who heads the equities division of SMC Capital told.

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Even some Gulf-based companies, like Emmar, which have business interests in India, said there will be virtually no impact on their ongoing projects in India.

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The response was similar from India’s leading engineering and construction major Larsen and Toubro Ltd, which said its exposure in Dubai was around $20-$25 million.

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🙂

RIL See Retail Sector as Major Value Creator : Ambani

RIL See Retail Sector as an Major Value Creator : Ambani

Reliance Industries has identified retail sector as an important component of its five-platform roadmap for value creation.

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The other value creators include conventional and renewable energy space, innovation and rural transformation, RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani said.


Reliance’s efforts would be on expanding the edifice created by Reliance Retail at the customer end and reinforcing supply chain and logistics,” the chairman said.

Ambani added that Reliance Retail would expand to new cities, markets and form strategic alliances.

This would be done through nearly 1,000 stores, while it has 900 stores across 86 cities.

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The retail company has run up losses over Rs 450 crore in last fiscal.

Ambani said RIL would diversity its conventional energy space with new accumulations in three years.

RIL proposes to accelerate their campaign in the Krishna-Godavari basin,as per the chairman.


Meanwhile, the gas production levels have crossed six billion cubic metres and the D6 field is slated for plateau production by the second half of the year 2010.

Oil production from the D26 field has 2.8 million barrels with daily peak production expected by the end of the year.


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With current cash balance of nearly Rs 19,420 crore, the company expects to be debt free in 21 months, Ambani said.

Even in difficult economic environment, RIL’s capital expenditure was Rs 24,713 crore ($4.9 billion).

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However, the stock market was not enthused.


On the BSE, RIL stock saw a marginal drop of 0.65 per cent to close at Rs 2,133.75 per share.

“Whatever Mr Ambani has said is old. There is nothing to cheer investors.However, overall sentiment is positive.”

Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head, SMC Capital, and other market analysts feels so.

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BSE and NSE all Set to Improve Arbitration and Appeal Mechanism

NSE BSE Mechanism

BSE and NSE all Set to Improve Arbitration and Appeal Mechanism

Both the BSE and NSE will soon be adopting the best practices in the other to improve the investor grievance redressal mechanism where the NSE is considering putting in place an appeal mechanism similar to the one at BSE.

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However, BSE is looking at scrapping the arbitration fees to be paid by the investor for claims below Rs 10 lakh while efforts are on to provide investors with help from a representative of Investor Associations (IA).

Meanwhile, at present, there is a two-level arbitration process in BSE whereas, in NSE, there is a single-level arbitration meaning if you lose your case in arbitration in NSE you shall have to appeal in the High Court.

Further, in BSE, you can appeal against an unsatisfactory verdict to an appellate panel of 5 arbitrators before taking the matter to court while if the arbitration claim amount is less than Rs 25 lakh on the NSE and less than Rs 10 lakh in case of the BSE, a single arbitrator hears the case.

But, if the arbitration claims are higher than this amount then a panel of 3 arbitrators will decide the case while NSE agreed to the appeal mechanism subject to the Arbitration Act.

In addition, on the BSE, an investor seeking redressal has to file an application with the exchange at Investors’ Grievance Redressal Committee (IGRC) comprising of a former justice of high court and a broker member trying to resolve the dispute at the IGRC level itself.

However, if no mutually agreeable settlement is reached, the parties are advised to go in for arbitration while another proposal, when executed, will be beneficial to investors like the BSE levies arbitration fees of approximately Rs 4,000 whereas on the NSE, for claims of up to Rs 10 lakh, only the brokers have to pay the arbitration fees.

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Dividend Payout not the Best Criteria to Judge MFs Schemes

Dividend Payout not the Best Criteria to Judge MFs Schemes

Dividend Payout not the Best Criteria to Judge MFs Schemes

 

Mutual fund schemes generally boast about high dividends but mutual fund experts say picking a mutual fund scheme on the basis of its dividend payout may not be the best way to invest in the sector.

As per MF experts, comparing the quantum of dividends paid in short term is not the correct way to measure a fund’s performance.

The proportion of dividend depends on a number of factors, including the frequency of payouts over a certain period of time.

There are funds that have higher net asset value (NAVs) but lower dividends, while others have lower NAVs, higher dividends.

Moreover, many analysts believes that the consistency of dividend payout is important than the quantum of dividend.

Experts always insist investors to not to base their investment decision on the percentage of dividend paid in a short period.

Rather Investors should look for the track record of the fund in this regard over a longer period of time.

After the recent equity market bull-run, many equity funds have declared dividends up to 70 per cent.

So far in October, over a dozen of equity schemes have declared dividends.

Experts are of view that the quantum of dividend paid does not directly indicate the performance of the fund, especially in the short term.

Unlike equities, if a mutual fund scheme pays certain percentage of dividend, NAV of the scheme drops by the same proportion.
If investors go for dividend plans, they most probably miss the compounding opportunities over the long-term for short-term gains.

An Equity head of a mutual fund said “unlike debt funds, where the intention of an investor is to earn dividends on a regular basis, investors in equity funds,  do not always look for dividend”.

At times, the focus is more on capital appreciation.

Even Fund Managers of reputed firms have maintained quite often that they pay dividends every year irrespective of the market conditions and consistency have always been theirs primary concern not the quantum of dividend.