Posts Tagged ‘bearish’

Commodity Weekly Commentary 5th-9th April

In the week gone by interesting moves were witnessed in gold futures. Gold prices surged high on international bourses while strong rupee kept domestic gold prices under check. International gold futures ended the first quarter with a positive note on buying driven by volatile currencies, firm stock markets and oil as well as euro zone debt but it struggled to sustain gains since hitting a record above $1,200 an ounce last December.

.

The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust said that its holdings stood at 1,129.823 tonnes as of March 31, 2010. Even, silver showed smart gains on international as well as on domestic exchanges. In base metal pack; copper futures hit 20-month highs last week, starting the second quarter in upbeat mood as improving demand sentiment and investor cash supported metals.

.

Falling LME inventories helped aid sentiment in recent weeks, with copper stocks dipping 1,875 tonnes to 512,450 tonnes, having hit 6-1/2 year highs at 555,075 tonnes in mid-February. Nickel stood as outperformer last week among all the base metals as prices rose 34.9 percent in the first quarter of this year, outperforming other metals traded on the LME.

.

The buying was triggered by expectations of stronger demand from stainless steel mills. In energy counter;  crude oil futures hit their highest level this year and posted the loftiest settlement for a front-month crude  contract in almost 1.5 years as a weakening dollar attracted buying.

.

Bearish trend was witnessed in most of agri commodities in the week gone by. Guar pack futures fell last week tracking weakness in the spot market, hopes of normal monsoon rains in 2010 and sufficient stocks. The movement in guar seed is largely driven by the monsoon report as it is a rain-fed crop.

.

However, in top producer Rajasthan, output is likely to drop by 80% to 241,000 tonnes in 2009/10 as scanty  rains trimmed area and yields. Profit booking at higher levels, drop in spot prices and rising arrivals  kept chana futures under check last week. In oil seeds section; soya bean and soya oil futures also  tad down tracking losses in the U.S. market, while rapeseed traded sideways tracking weakness in soya  market on output concerns.

.

Traders are now speculating that output would be lower for mustard than the estimates considering the arrivals in spot market. In spices pack; jeera and chilli prices settled in red zone while pepper futures surged high for the third consecutive week due to extended bargain buying on the exchange platform. The factors supporting the rise in prices are firm rates in the international markets and active buying of exchange because of tight supply situation in the physical markets.

Additional Directional Movement (ADX) Final Part

Hello Friends here we come up with an extension of our previous blog “Additional Directional Movement (ADX)” Part 1.

.

Additional Directional Movement (ADX) Final Part

.

In this blog we would read about the features of ADX and the current scenario of the ADX in the market.

.

ADX On PRACTICE

.

The great feature of ADX is the ability to see buying and selling pressure at the same time.

.

Values above 40 indicate very strong trending while values below 20 indicate non-trending or ranging market conditions.

.

The indicator does not grade the trend as bullish or bearish, but merely assesses the strength of the current trend.

When ADX begins to strengthen from below 20 and moves above 20, it is a sign that the trading range is ending and a trend is developing.

The current scenario of ADX falling from the levels of 32 & now continuing at 25, tells that the momentum of price is toward a weaker section with a sideways movement.

.

It shows that the sellers are stronger than the buyers,this is seen in a downtrend.

.

The lesser volumes of trade & the bearish fundamentals also confirm that the overall sentiments are not supportive to the prices.

The factors are as follows:

.

· Fresh arrivals are coming to the spot market with harvesting in Idukki.

· Commencement of fresh arrivals with higher moisture content is likely to keep check on the price.

· Indian production is also expected to be higher by 10% to 55,000 tonnes.

· Indian parity in the international market quoting at $3,200-3,225 a tonne (c&f).

· Spot prices have plunged by 9% within a span of 4 weeks, quoting near the levels of 14K.

.

The investors are being cautious to enter the trade, which is hence keeping the price in a range between Rs. 13800-14800.

.

However, the current tight stock levels in pipeline, & demand from the overseas and domestic market is adding support to prices.

.

The DMI lines are good reference for price volatility.

.

In a nutshell, values of the ADX can be used to confirm the strength of an upward/down trend & also give the investor the confidence to enter into the trade.

.

🙂

.

Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please Click Here

Market May Continue to See Sideway Movements: Experts

Market To Move sideways : Expert

Market To Move sideways : Expert

After last week’s correction, witnessing a dip of 492 points, market experts said this week might continue to see sideway movements with slight downward bias.

They opined it was basically the momentum play which took the markets beyond 17,000 points and therefore downside movement was expected.

They maintained that currently the markets are over stretched and any rise in the short-term is unlikely.

😦

They ruled out that Reliance’s bonus shares or Infosys’s better than expected earnings will stoke the markets with positive sentiments this week.

In the previous week, CNX Nifty declined 138.2 points or 2.72 per cent on a weekly basis to close at 4,945.20 last Friday against last week’s close of 5,083.40.

Similarly, Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, slipped below 17,000 mark to close the week at 16,642.66, down 2.87 per cent.

Brokers pointed out that this week, Nifty may bottom out at 4,800 levels. It should not come below this as fundamentals of the country are intact.

🙂

Last week, indices which ended in the green include consumer durables, fast moving consumer goods, health care, metals and power.

On the other hand, auto, bankex, capital goods, IT, oil & gas and realty index closed in the red.

Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capitals, said,

“Markets are facing resistance. It is difficult to expect sectors to outperform.  Though some stocks could do well.  But it seems, market is not in a mood to hear any good news.”

🙂

This week, experts are betting big on telecom, infrastructure, consumer durables and banking space.

They held bearish stand on sectors like IT and auto.

Experts said that from this week onwards, corporate earning seasons will start which market will closely watch for.

🙂