Posts Tagged ‘Banking’

Weekly Update 5th – 9th July 2010

The global markets fell in the week gone by as the manufacturing growth exhibited weakness from China to U.S. The investor’s across the globe became nervous with the fading signs of global recovery. G20 leaders said that the limited demand in advanced economies has left the world reliant on emerging markets, led by China, to drive a recovery is “uneven and fragile.”

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China’s manufacturing growth slowed more than expected in June adding to the concerns that the fastest- growing major economy is cooling. The government’s Purchasing Managers’ Index declined to 52.1 from 53.9 in May. In the U.S., manufacturing slowed in June with the cooling demand from rest of the world.

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The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of manufacturing fell to 56.2 from 59.7 a month earlier.

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As anticipated in our last two editions, RBI raised the policy rates i.e. Repurchase and Reverse Repurchase rate by 25 bps taking it to 5.50 percent and 4 percent respectively as a part of the calibrated exit from the expansionary monetary policy. The strong growth shown by manufacturing sector especially capital goods sector, acceleration in credit growth and the widening current account deficit helped RBI to take such a step in order to anchor inflationary expectations going forward. In order to address the liquidity situation which is currently in deficit mode under LAF operations, RBI allowed banks to borrow to 0.5 per cent of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) even in case of a shortfall in maintenance of statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) till July 16, 2010.

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The expectation of hike in policy rates by RBI was very much priced in and will not have any bearing effect on the stock markets. However expecting good monsoon, the market was in the belief that inflation will come down in the months to come. But the recent numbers from IMD suggests a relook as so far the monsoon was 16 percent below normal in June 2010.

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Indian stock markets were holding on when all the world stock markets are falling but one should be very cautious when world markets are falling so much as Banking and IT sector are showing some weakness. Nifty has support between 5200-5100 levels and Sensex between 17300-17000 levels.

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Gone was wholly a brutal week for commodities. After the fourth quarter of 2008, first time commodities witnessed quarterly decline. Even the topmost hot favorite of investors gold and dollar index toppled down as money manager’s shifted their attentions towards euro, which saw a decent rise last week. Poor economic data’s in a row further pave the path for selling. At present one should wait for the clear trend. Base metals and energy have already seen a steep decline, may trade in a range for the time being. Similar story is of gold and silver.

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IRDA Allows Banks to Sell Insurance Products of Multiple Companies

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The Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority (IRDA) is likely to permit banks to sell insurance products of more than one company.

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The move will allow banks to retail insurance products and not just be distributor for one insurer.

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A panel, set up by the IRDA to look into bancassurance, is finalizing its report, an IRDA official said.

From 2002, IRDA had allowed bancassurance.

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A bank was allowed to act as an agent for only one life and one general insurer according to the norms.

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Bancassurance is a delivery channel in which an insurance company uses a bank”s sales channel to sell its products.

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At present, bancassurance garners more than a quarter of the entire premium collected by the insurance industry.

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Combining scheduled commercial banks, co-operative banks and regional rural development banks, India has close to 1,70,000 bank branches.

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IRDA has been concerned about tie-ups between banks and insurance companies and is considering a regulatory framework for an open architecture for such arrangements

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RBI Emphasizes on Managing the Economic Recovery, For Now :)

RBI emphasizes more on Managing economic Recovery

 

The Reserve Bank of India, country”s Central bank, has said that managing economic recovery is now its focus area and the first phase of monetary tightening will arrest inflation without hurting growth.

RBI Executive Director Deepak Mohanty was found quoting  that at present, the focus around the world and also in India has shifted from managing the crisis to managing the recovery.

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He said that withdrawing soft monetary policy, which was initiated to weather the financial crisis is the key challenge.

“The key challenge relates to the exit strategy that needs to be designed, considering that the recovery is as yet fragile but there is an uptick in inflation, though largely from the supply side, which could engender inflationary expectations,” he said.

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Besides this, Mohanty said that the first phase of exit has been initiated by RBI in its monetary policy review in October 2009.

That was done mainly by withdrawal of unconventional measures taken during the crisis.

RBI, in its monetary review in October has raised the requirement for banks to hold portion of the deposits in cash, gold and government securities to 25 per cent.

Moreover, it had also done away with special liquidity provision for banks to provide money to mutual funds and others.

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Indian Stocks Rose After Govt Approved Disinvestment Plans

Indian Stocks Rose After Govt Approved Disinvestment Plans

Indian Stocks Rose After Govt Approved Disinvestment Plans

Indian stocks rose, extending the benchmark index’s longest string of gains in five weeks, after the government approved a plan to sell more shares in state- controlled companies, helping it raise funds to boost spending.

MMTC Ltd., India’s biggest state-owned trading company, surged 20 percent, the most in 10 months.

Rico Auto Industries Ltd., an auto component maker that supplies General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co., climbed 5.1 percent after workers ended a 45-day strike.

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The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, rose 94.38, or 0.6 percent, to 16,158.28.
The measure this week gained 1.7 percent, snapping two weeks of losses.

The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange rose 0.6 percent to 4,796.15.
The BSE 200 Index added 1.1 percent to 2,011.08.

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“The disinvestment move will help moderate India’s fiscal deficit,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of equities at SMC Capitals Ltd. in New Delhi.

“Also, it may help in higher GDP growth led by increased government spending.”

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MMTC soared 20 percent to 36,146.85 rupees, the most since Dec. 17.
State Trading Corp., the No. 2, leapt 15 percent to 353.6 rupees.

NMDC Ltd., India’s largest iron-ore producer, climbed 10 percent to 338 rupees. 

Hindustan Copper Ltd., India’s biggest copper miner, 99.59 percent state-owned, gained 10 percent to 256.35 rupees.

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Budget Deficit

The government owns 99.33 percent in MMTC and 91.02 percent in State Trading, while it holds 98.38 percent in NMDC, according to filings to the Bombay Stock Exchange.

The government will use the money raised from the sale of shares of state companies for social spending.

India’s fiscal deficit reached 6 percent of gross domestic product in the year ended March 31, surpassing the 2.5 percent government target.

The key Sensitive stock index has more than doubled from this year’s lowest level, in March.

Govt’s stand to sell state assets and accept more overseas funds into insurance and banking, has strengthened, after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh resounding re-election victory in May.

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RBI’s Monetary Policy Stance – Part 3

Just an extension of our previous blog “RBI, Monetary Projections And Indian Economy


RBI’s Monetary Policy Stance - Part 3

RBI’s Monetary Policy Stance - Part 3

In this Blog we would touch upon the aspects as that of RBI’s Monetary Policy Stance and few more facts which carries direct or indirect connection with the RBI Policies.

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For example, business confidence index ,industrial recovery status, overall consumption and investment, export-imports status etc;

The True Facts:

So far business confidence has also improved, and demand conditions seem to have picked up, as seen by better order book and increased capital finance requirements.

Industrial recovery seems to be on its way with 5.8% growth in IIP during April-August ’09.

A revival in capital flows, and stronger performance of the core infrastructure sector (4.8% for April-August ’09) seems to be indicating a slight recovery in the economy.

However, there has been a deceleration in growth of private consumption and investment demand, and raw material prices are expected to rise on account of inflationary pressures.

The deficient monsoon could also reduce rural demand.

First quarter earnings of corporates reflect a decline in sales, and non-food credit growth has decelerated, with credit card and consumer durables related credit turning negative.

Exports have continued to decline as external demand dependent services remain sluggish.

The economy is showing some signs of recovery, while a rising CPI has now pushed WPI into the positive territory, mainly on account of higher food prices.

The RBI’s stance will thus have to manage the trade-off inflationary pressures between supporting growth and controlling .

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Monetary Policy Stance

On the basis of the above overall assessment, the stance of monetary policy for the remaining period of 2009-10 will be as follows:

– Keep a vigil on the trends in inflation and be prepared to respond swiftly and effectively through policy adjustments to stabilize inflation expectations.

Monitor the liquidity situation closely and manage it actively to ensure that credit demands of productive sectors are adequately met while also securing price stability and financial stability.

-Maintain a monetary and interest rate regime consistent with price stability and financial stability, and supportive of the growth process.

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Stay Tuned for more on the topic.

We would cover Analysis view from the Analyst with respect to the monetary point of view.

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RBI to Assess Affairs of Foreign Banks Operating in India

RBI to Assess Affairs of Foreign Banks Operating in India

RBI to Assess Affairs of Foreign Banks Operating in India

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to run a detailed assessment of the risk-management capabilities and evaluate the transparency in financial affairs of all foreign banks operating in India with an aim to ensure that they do not pose any systemic risk to the banking sector.

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However, until this process is finished, foreign banks are doubtful to be permitted to open more branches in India while India has committed to allowing 12 new branches to foreign banks in a year, but has been more liberal.


Moreover, this has resulted in a high presence of foreign banks in India as their WTO commitment allows them to deny licenses to foreign banks once their share in the total assets of the banking system exceeds 15%.


Additionally, as it comes in the aftermath of the financial crisis, the audit reflects concerns over an unduly large presence of foreign banks creating risks for Indian financial markets.


Meanwhile, the finance ministry and the central bank had always supported allowing foreign banks to operate in India as they thought that increased presence of foreign banks boosts the efficiency of the domestic banking sector.

RBI And Its Policies – Part 1

Hello Friends, last month we witnessed loads of action with the RBI’s monetary policy being laid down.

However here we bring more on the RBI policies and projections.

RBI policies and projections

RBI policies and projections

 

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) laid the groundwork on Tuesday i.e. on 27th Oct in its monetary policy for a rise in interest rates by tightening credit to the commercial property sector, lifting its inflation forecast and warning of the threat of asset price bubbles.

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The RBI had injected in massive liquidity in the banking system in the past one year or so to help revive the domestic economy in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

For now, the Reserve Bank has decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 4.75 per cent, the reverse repo rate unchanged at 3.25 per cent and the (Cash Reserve Ratio) CRR of banks unchanged at 5 per cent of their (NDTL).


The following measures constitute the first phase of ‘exit’:

– The Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR), which has earlier been reduced from 25 per cent of NDTL to 24 per cent, is being restored to 25 per cent.

-The limit for export credit refinance facility, which was raised to 50 per cent of eligible outstanding export credit, is being returned to the pre-crisis level of 15 per cent.

The two unconventional refinance facilities:

(i) special refinance facility for scheduled commercial banks; and

(ii) special term repo facility for scheduled commercial banks [for funding to Mutual Funds (MFs), Non-banking Financial Companies (NBFCs), and Housing Finance Companies (HFCs)] are being discontinued with immediate effect.

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Further, the liabilities of scheduled banks arising from transactions in Collateralized Borrowing and Lending Obligations (CBLO) with Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. (CCIL) would now be subject to the maintenance of the CRR.

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Stay Tuned for more on this in our coming blogs.

We would cover Monetary Projections of RBI and Economy scenario and indicators at the moment.