Posts Tagged ‘banking system’

Weekly Update of The Market (1st – 5th February) Part 1

Hello Friends, here, we bring you the weekly overview of the Indian as well as of the Global economy and along with the latest global business and industry updates.

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Weekly Update of The Market (1st - 5th February) Part 1

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A bout of volatility was witnessed in the domestic market throughout the week due to

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1.  F&O expiry,

2.  unfavorable global cues because of gloomy earnings forecast,

3.  anxiety about China‘s monetary tightening,

4.  the deteriorating finances of countries ranging from Greece to Japan and

5.  India’s central bank‘s decision to raise the CRR to 5.75.

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🙂

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But on later days of the week, US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged boosted sentiments of global markets.

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Closer home, investors also heaved a sigh of relief as the central bank kept key interest rates unchanged at the quarterly policy review indicating that it would maintain a balance between price stability and growth and raised its GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.5 %.

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The RBI at its quarterly monetary policy review raised CRR by 75 basis points to suck out excess liquidity from the banking system to the tune of Rs 36000 crore.

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On the flip side, the challenges that RBI foresees for the economy is fiscal consolidation.

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The central bank lifted its wholesale price index inflation forecast for the end of the fiscal year in March 2010 to 8.5% from its earlier forecast of 6.5%.

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RBI also said it expected inflation to moderate starting in July 2010, assuming a normal monsoon and global oil prices holding at current levels.

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Moreover, US Federal Reserve too maintained interest rates at near zero levels and vowed to do so for an extended period of time.

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Additionally, it also signaled its intention of unwinding the massive monetary stimulus that it had undertaken during the peak of the crisis.

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🙂

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Stay Tuned for More on weekly updates.

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please click here

India’s Total External Debt Touched $243 Billion

India’s Total External Debt Touched $243 Billion

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India’s total external debt rose by 8.1% to $242.8 billion at the end of September 2009 from $224.6 billion at March-end 2009.

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The long term debt increased by 10.6% to $200.4 billion, while short term debt declined by 2.3% to $42.4 billion.

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Most of the increase in the debt ($8.3 billion or 45.6%) is due to depreciation of dollar against major global currencies, out of total increase of $18.2 billion, according to a finance ministry statement.

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The total external financial assets increased by $21 billion to $378.6 billion at September end 2009 over the previous quarter.

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Total external financial liabilities increased significantly by $32.7 billion over the previous quarter and stood at $476.4 billion at Septemberend 2009.

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Direct investment and Portfolio investment in India increased by $11 billion and $10.2 billion respectively over the previous quarter.

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Long-term debt at $ 220.4 billion accounted for 82.5% of the total debt.

As a positive development, India’s short term debt, which had increased sharply between March 2005 and March 2008, went down by $985 million to $42.4 billion at September-end.

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The decline was seen in all the components of short-term debt except trade related credits for period above six months and up to one year

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Short-term credit, that is a credit of less than 180 days, short-term liabilities of banking system and investment of foreign central banks and other global financial institutions in government’s treasury bills is considered bad for economy.

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🙂

Bank deposits, BSE Sensex Move in Reverse Direction

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) market capitalisation and bank deposit levels move in diametrically opposite directions. In an economy that is on shaky ground, bank deposit levels go up, but when there is optimism, market cap goes up, reveals a 34-month study conducted by New Delhi-based SMC Capitals.

The elements of fear and greed (which drive the capital markets) are clearly visible in the trends seen in the allocation of assets by
investors in terms of cash and stocks. An attempt to compare the BSE market cap levels (over the period starting January 2007), with the aggregate bank deposits in the banking system shows the relative measure of the entire market capitalisation of BSE as percentage of aggregate bank deposits in the entire banking system. This is a reflection of the level of risk appetite in the investor community.

For instance, in January 2007, BSE market cap at Rs 3,779,000 crore as a percentage of aggregate bank deposits was 152 per cent, which means BSE market cap was 1.52 times more than the entire bank deposits at that time, that was Rs 2,485,000 crore.

When the market started recovering since March 2009, the BSE market cap as a percentage of aggregate bank deposits crossed 100 per cent level and at present, these level is at about 138 per cent.

BSE market cap at the end of November was Rs 5,793,000 crore, while bank deposits stood at Rs 4,196,000 crore, data from SMC Capitals shows. Latest data on bank deposits is available only till November.

As the bull market cap kept racing ahead during 2007, these levels of BSE market cap, as a percentage of aggregate bank deposits, have kept rising. At the peak of the bull market, that is by December 2007, these levels reached 235 per cent.

Simply put, BSE market cap at Rs 7,169,000 crore was more than double the Rs 3,047,000 crore kept in bank deposits.

“What it means is that the deposits available with sche-duled banks put together can’t even buy half of BSE stocks. This was probably the sign of ‘excess optimism’ in the capital market,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head of SMC Capitals.

However, by the time the bear market started in 2008, this level of BSE market cap as percentage of aggregate bank deposits has consistently kept falling. By the time the markets touched the bottom in February 2009, this level fell to 74 per cent.

This means that with the aggregate bank deposits available with the banking system, one can buy all the BSE-listed stocks and will still be left with 26 per cent of the deposits. This probably marked the sign of excess fear in the system, said Thunuguntla. By this time, the BSE market cap was to the tune of Rs 2,862,000 crore, whereas the aggregate bank deposits were to the tune of Rs 3,848,000 crore.

RBI to Assess Affairs of Foreign Banks Operating in India

RBI to Assess Affairs of Foreign Banks Operating in India

RBI to Assess Affairs of Foreign Banks Operating in India

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to run a detailed assessment of the risk-management capabilities and evaluate the transparency in financial affairs of all foreign banks operating in India with an aim to ensure that they do not pose any systemic risk to the banking sector.

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However, until this process is finished, foreign banks are doubtful to be permitted to open more branches in India while India has committed to allowing 12 new branches to foreign banks in a year, but has been more liberal.


Moreover, this has resulted in a high presence of foreign banks in India as their WTO commitment allows them to deny licenses to foreign banks once their share in the total assets of the banking system exceeds 15%.


Additionally, as it comes in the aftermath of the financial crisis, the audit reflects concerns over an unduly large presence of foreign banks creating risks for Indian financial markets.


Meanwhile, the finance ministry and the central bank had always supported allowing foreign banks to operate in India as they thought that increased presence of foreign banks boosts the efficiency of the domestic banking sector.

RBI And Its Policies – Part 1

Hello Friends, last month we witnessed loads of action with the RBI’s monetary policy being laid down.

However here we bring more on the RBI policies and projections.

RBI policies and projections

RBI policies and projections

 

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) laid the groundwork on Tuesday i.e. on 27th Oct in its monetary policy for a rise in interest rates by tightening credit to the commercial property sector, lifting its inflation forecast and warning of the threat of asset price bubbles.

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The RBI had injected in massive liquidity in the banking system in the past one year or so to help revive the domestic economy in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

For now, the Reserve Bank has decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 4.75 per cent, the reverse repo rate unchanged at 3.25 per cent and the (Cash Reserve Ratio) CRR of banks unchanged at 5 per cent of their (NDTL).


The following measures constitute the first phase of ‘exit’:

– The Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR), which has earlier been reduced from 25 per cent of NDTL to 24 per cent, is being restored to 25 per cent.

-The limit for export credit refinance facility, which was raised to 50 per cent of eligible outstanding export credit, is being returned to the pre-crisis level of 15 per cent.

The two unconventional refinance facilities:

(i) special refinance facility for scheduled commercial banks; and

(ii) special term repo facility for scheduled commercial banks [for funding to Mutual Funds (MFs), Non-banking Financial Companies (NBFCs), and Housing Finance Companies (HFCs)] are being discontinued with immediate effect.

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Further, the liabilities of scheduled banks arising from transactions in Collateralized Borrowing and Lending Obligations (CBLO) with Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. (CCIL) would now be subject to the maintenance of the CRR.

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Stay Tuned for more on this in our coming blogs.

We would cover Monetary Projections of RBI and Economy scenario and indicators at the moment.

Greed and Fear : Factors that Drive the Stock Market !

fear and greed are the two key factors that drive the stock market :)

Everyone knows that fear and greed are the two key factors that drive the stock market.

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If you talk to any seasoned investors in the market, they would tell you of the stories of how people got carried away by greed and lost all their money in the process.

Stories about people spooked by ‘fear factor’ also do the rounds of Dalal Street at regular intervals.

According to a study by SMC Capitals, “the elements of fear and greed are clearly apparent in the trends of allocation of assets by the investors in terms of cash and stocks.’’

The trend, says the study, can be seen at the levels of market cap and bank deposits in the economy.

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When there is fear among the investing community, the bank deposits go up.

And, when there is widespread optimism, the market cap levels go up.

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“If you look at investor behavior in the last three years,
the pattern is very clear:

the first year was of over-optimism,

the second was of over-pessimism and

now it’s the recovery period.

This trend is clearly visible if you look at the market cap and bank deposits (or the real wealth),’’ says Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head of New Delhi-based SMC Capitals.

🙂

In the study, SMC has compared the BSE market cap from the period starting January 2007, with the aggregate bank deposits in the bank deposits.

The relative measure of the entire market capitalisation of BSE as a percentage of aggregate bank deposits in the entire banking system demonstrates the mindset of the investor community.

🙂

Read the Full Story on The Economic Times

However For More latest Industry,Stock Market and Economy News Updates, Click Here

Small savings in demand again !!

NEW OPTION TO PARK FUNDS

NEW OPTION TO PARK FUNDS

Schemes Like NSC, Bonds Attract Investors As Deposit Rates Of Banks, Cos Fall

With bank and corporate deposit rates falling, investors are ‘‘rediscovering’’ an alternative avenue to park their funds.:)

According to investment consultants, people are once again showing interest in government backed small saving schemes like National Savings Certificate, Kisan Vikas Patra and Government of India bonds, among other things.

There is also a clamour among retired people to invest in the government-sponsored Senior Citizen Saving Scheme.


Investors are also forced to look into these schemes as corporate deposits, which paid better than bank deposits, have either had their interest rates slashed or companies have stopped accepting deposits altogether.

Banks paid interest rates as high as 10.5% till recently. However, they have begun reducing rates after liquidity improved dramatically in the banking system.

Most banks offer around 7-8% interest on fixed deposit these days. Some companies too used to offer higher rates of around 11-12%.


Some experts also points out that the ‘‘newfound favour’’ for safer or preferably government-backed returns also could be the reason for the renewed investor demand for small saving schemes.

There was some kind of anxiety about the safety of one’s money till recently because of the uncertainties in the global economy. The sentiment has improved marginally after the stock market started showing signs of revival.

However, some people, especially retirees, are still concerned about the safety of their money. That is why they prefer government schemes like government of India bonds and Senior Citizen’s Savings Scheme.


The Senior Citizen’s Savings Scheme particularly appeals to retirees as it offers a higher interest of 9%.

The scheme was launched by the government in 2004 because retirees were complaining about lower rates on bank fixed deposits. It is now once again in favour because it offers 9% interest.

And it seems investors will have to be happy with these small saving schemes for some time, as experts don’t think banks or companies are likely to up rates anytime soon. 🙂
Source : TNN