Posts Tagged ‘auto’

INDIAN ECONOMY – GAINING STRENGTH Part 1

Stock market reflects & discounts the overall conditions in the economy.Besides, stock prices in the market are also governed by the investor behavior & valuations. Sometimes investor’s optimism takes the market valuation to a level that it does not matches up with the actual future growth, thus becoming the basis for correction & vice- versa. It is said that “ markets may remain irrational till the life of human being”. Now let us have a look at the economy to see what lies in the future & how it is shaping up for the next leg of growth.

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Indian economy is expected to grow by 7.2% in the fiscal ended on 31st march 2010 & is projected to expand by 8.55 in the current fiscal year and 9% in the next year. The continued improvement in the sentiments of the manufacturing sector which currently contributes around 15% in GDP is likely to play a major role in taking GDP growth to double digits.

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Strong industrial recovery has been the key underlying strength behind the recovery of GDP. During April- December 2009, the index of industrial production (IIP) increased by 8.6% over the corresponding period. Factors that will drive the growth in the industrial production are:

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  • Improvement in agriculture output- Tokyo-based Research institute for global change has predicted normal monsoon rains in india for the current year. On the belief of climatic conditions will remain normal during the year we expect the improved availability of agricultural output to push up production of manufactured food products..

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  • Rising consumer demand – as the business conditions are improving & corporate are giving wage hikes, we believe this will strengthen the sense of financial security in the minds of urban middle-class. A rise in purchasing power and availability of easy and affordable loans are expected to increase the demand for durable goods like auto, consumer appliances.

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  • More availability of mining products- we expect natural gas & crude oil output would increase as the result of the efforts that are being done by companies like Reliance & Cairn India. Coal Production will also rise owing to the allocation of new coal blocks by the government. Fertilizer & Electricity sector would be the key & direct beneficiary with the improvement in the gas & coal availability.

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    Stay tuned for more on this 🙂

    WEEKLY Update 22nd – 26th March

    Global market sentiments together with continued buying by foreign institutional investors led domestic markets to pose one of the best six consecutive weekly gains after almost a year. The fact behind such a move is that market participants are gaining a lot of confidence & believe that the domestic economic activity is getting stronger & stronger over the period.

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    Encouraging advance tax payments for the Q4 March 2010 also assured the market participants for better than expected corporates profit. As expected Standard & Poor’s (S&P), the credit rating agency revised India’s outlook to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’ with the government’s pledge to reduce fiscal deficit over the next three years in the budget.

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    The move complemented overall sentiments of the market post the S&P upgrade as some foreign investors who were restricted from investing in countries below a certain degree of credit worthiness would now come to the market. On the expected lines of monetary tightening, RBI surprised the markets on the last day of trading by increasing both policy rates by 25 bps, a month before its quarterly meeting scheduled in April.

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    In the light of sustained pickup in economic activity & headline inflation passing through the baseline projection of 8.5 for end-March 2010 has induced RBI to come up with such stronger action. Moreover, non-food manufacturing products that constitutes 52.2 per cent weight in WPI has seen sustained rise from negative (-0.4 per cent) in November 2009 to 4.3 per cent in February 2010.

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    Increasing capacity utilisation and rising commodity and energy prices are exerting pressure on overall inflation. The small hike of 25 bps in policy rates is considered only as a signal & if needed, RBI may come out with more of such steps in case of sustained inflationary conditions in the economy. In the coming week, interest rate sensitive like, Auto & Real estate stocks may see some pressure on the expectation of dearer loans in the future.

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    Overall trend of world markets is still up but the rise in dollar index every now and then gives some fear to the rally in commodities. Dollar index, which is at current levels of 80.75, if closes above its key resistance level of 81, can give jitters to various commodities and stock markets so one should take care. Nifty has support between 5150-5050 levels and Sensex between  17200-16800 levels.

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    Range trading from last few weeks has kept investors in a fix. Ambiguity over the next move is refraining investors to take large positions in commodities. Currency has become crucial here. Greece concern is capping the upside of euro and dollar index is not breaking its range.

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    Furthermore, there is no as such big fundamental news which can give a clear cut direction to commodities. Some supply disruption in copper and nickel can support the prices at higher side. Hence, cautious trading is advised for investors.

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    Even in agro commodities, arrival pressure in many commodities is limiting the upside despite the steady demand. Once arrivals get clear, bottom formation is expected in many agro commodities.

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    Market May Continue to See Sideway Movements: Experts

    Market To Move sideways : Expert

    Market To Move sideways : Expert

    After last week’s correction, witnessing a dip of 492 points, market experts said this week might continue to see sideway movements with slight downward bias.

    They opined it was basically the momentum play which took the markets beyond 17,000 points and therefore downside movement was expected.

    They maintained that currently the markets are over stretched and any rise in the short-term is unlikely.

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    They ruled out that Reliance’s bonus shares or Infosys’s better than expected earnings will stoke the markets with positive sentiments this week.

    In the previous week, CNX Nifty declined 138.2 points or 2.72 per cent on a weekly basis to close at 4,945.20 last Friday against last week’s close of 5,083.40.

    Similarly, Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, slipped below 17,000 mark to close the week at 16,642.66, down 2.87 per cent.

    Brokers pointed out that this week, Nifty may bottom out at 4,800 levels. It should not come below this as fundamentals of the country are intact.

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    Last week, indices which ended in the green include consumer durables, fast moving consumer goods, health care, metals and power.

    On the other hand, auto, bankex, capital goods, IT, oil & gas and realty index closed in the red.

    Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capitals, said,

    “Markets are facing resistance. It is difficult to expect sectors to outperform.  Though some stocks could do well.  But it seems, market is not in a mood to hear any good news.”

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    This week, experts are betting big on telecom, infrastructure, consumer durables and banking space.

    They held bearish stand on sectors like IT and auto.

    Experts said that from this week onwards, corporate earning seasons will start which market will closely watch for.

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