Posts Tagged ‘Australian wheat’

Lower Output of Rice will Shift More Demand for Wheat

Hello Friends, just an extension of our previous blog “wheat may move in range with up bias”.

Lower Output of Rice will Shift More Demand for Wheat

Lower output of rice and maize will shift more demand for wheat

Despite record wheat production in 2007-08, wheat consumption in 2008/09 is estimated to have declined to around 70.2 million tonnes from 76.2 million tonnes in the previous year due to high prices.

Domestic prices have shot up after a significant hike in the minimum support price discouraging consumption.

Highly subsidized rice distribution program of some state government also tempered wheat demand.

Domestic wheat consumption in 2009-10 is expected to rise by 70.2 million tonnes to 76.88 million tonnes ; likely decline in rice and maize production may lift wheat demand.

Export ban may continue, import at this juncture is viable

With bumper production and significant built up of stock wheat export was earlier estimated to be 2 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Even government relaxing ban placed in February, 2007 allowed two million tonnes of government-to government export.

But weak monsoon and poor sowing prospects of paddy forced
government to scrap government-to-government export allowed earlier.

It is likely that government would continue with its stance on export of wheat at least till the end of current marketing year.

After importing wheat in 2006-07 (6.2 million tonnes) and 2007-08 (1.8 million tonnes), India did not import any wheat in 2008/09 as the domestic supply situation improved considerably.

As domestic supply situation is comfortable, import is also not likely in the current season.

However imports are currently viable as international prices of wheat (equivalent to domestic mill quality) are lower.

Ukraine origin wheat is trading $ 180-200 per tonne and

Australian wheat is at $ 210-230 per tonne, while wheat prices on Southern India is at around $275-300 per tonne.


In Next Blog, We would touch upon the aspects like Domestic and International price trend of wheat. demand and supply scenario in coming months, price trend and on Export Ban.

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