Posts Tagged ‘Asian markets’

Sensex Tumbles 216 Points on Weak Global Cues

Stocks dropped on Wednesday, triggered mainly by weak sentiments in Asian markets  on concern over rising dollar, ahead of the expiry of October series of futures and option contracts.

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European markets saw a gap-down opening, but recovered later, helping the market to gain some ground in the last half-an-hour of trade. The BSE Sensex trimmed 216.02 points, or 1.07 per cent, to close at 20,005.37. Nifty index declined 69.35 points, or 1.14 per cent, to 6,012.65.

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“Strengthening of the dollar against a basket of major world currencies dragged the market on Wednesday. The Dollar Index, which has an inverse relationship with different assets classes, is rebounding these days. Due to which, investors have turned cautious on equities markets,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of research at SMC Global Securities.

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The Dollar Index on Wednesday rose to 77.92 against 76.64 on October 14. Before this, the index was falling continuously from the middle of July.

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There was also speculation that US Federal Reserve’s asset purchase plan may be a disappointing one, said Alex Mathews of Geojit BNP Paribas.

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“Nifty has a major support at 5,963 while on the upside, it faces resistance at 6,089 level. On Thursday, we are going to see the October F&O expiry. The rollovers at the end of Wednesday’s session was around 45 per cent,” he said.

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Banking stocks continued to weigh heavy while disappointing results of heavyweight NTPC hurt sentiments on the power counter.

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Union Bank, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank fell 5.85 per cent, 2.23 per cent and 1.93 per cent, respectively. SBI inched up 0.41 per cent to Rs 3,193.45. Union Bank on Wednesday posted 40 per cent decline in September quarter PAT to Rs 303 crore compared with the same period a year ago.

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NTPC fell 3.24 per cent after the company reported 2.07 per cent drop in PAT on 20.46 per cent year-on-year rise in net sales for the September quarter. The results were announced after Tuesday’s trading hours.

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Among other stocks in news, MRPL rose 1.76 to Rs 83.95 after its Q2 net profit jumped 56.70 per cent to Rs 281.57 crore. ONGC and HPCL, the two stakeholders of the company, dipped 1.80 per cent and 1.42 per cent.

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Shriram Transport Finance hit an all-time high and rose 3.94 per cent to Rs 89.45 after its net profit surged 44.11 per cent year-on-year to Rs 298.96 crore.

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Weekly Update 2nd – 6th August 2010

Asian markets saw buying as more than half of the companies that announced results in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index have exceeded the analyst’s estimates, boosting confidence about the strength of the recovery. U.S. economy expanded at a 2.4 percent annual pace in the second quarter less than forecast, indicating that the world largest economy will see a moderate recovery.

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The jobless recovery is curbing household purchases as consumer spending that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy rose 1.6 percent in last quarter, compared with a 1.9 percent rate in the previous three months. U.S. financial system recovery is fragile and as per IMF stress tests banks may need as much as $76 billion in capital. In India, as per expectations RBI hiked the policy rates and indicated that monetary steps will continue in order to moderate inflationary pressures.

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RBI chief said that despite of the monetary measures, monsoon rains would play a critical role in moderating food prices. Now RBI will release eight monetary policy statements in a year that will cut short the time of monetary policy adjustments. The central Bank also revised its estimates for inflation and economic growth to 6 percent and 8.5 percent from earlier estimates of 5 percent and 8 percent respectively.

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The annual monsoon rains bounced back from a 17-percent deficit in the previous week to 38 percent above normal in the week to 28 July 2010.Heavy, well distributed showers in the past week helped total rainfall rise to normal during July have raised the farm sector prospects thereby indicating a pickup in rural demand.

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Till now the results announced so far have shown a mixed picture with some disappointment coming from the large caps.The combined net profit of a total of 1,085 companies declined 12.6 percent to `47280 crore on 23.1 percent increase in sales to 609368 crore in Q1 June 2010 over Q1 June 2009. Going next week some of the top companies like SBI, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Tata steel, etc will announce their quarterly numbers and would help in setting the undertone of the market.

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Indian Stock Markets are holding on to the gains though the momentum for rise is lacking. But the world stock markets are slowly inching up with base metals commodities also showing strength. The rise in Rupee and the midcap stocks rally in the week gone by gives a hope of further rally. It seems the market would take a clearer direction in the coming week. Nifty has support between 5315-5250 levels and Sensex between 17700-17500 levels.

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It is quite visible that good corporate earnings have propped up the sentiments of financial market and commodity is not an exception. Hence we have seen that capital inflow switched to riskier asset from safe asset like gold and dollar index.

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Base metals are the major beneficiary and they are trading at multi months high whereas crude is reacting on stocks pile up in US and ignoring other positive cues. If positive outcome of economic indicators and earnings continue to come in near future then all base metals will trade in a range with upside bias and vice a versa.

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Even in crude oil some lower level buying may occur this week. Expect further fall in gold and if it breaches the mark of 17500 then we may see some spurt in physical buying. In agro commodities, spices may trade in a range on mix fundamentals.

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Weekly Update 19th – 23rd April 2010

After nine consecutive weeks of gains, domestic markets ended in the negative terrain in the week gone by on the concerns over interest rate tightening by the RBI in its monetary policy scheduled on 20th April coupled with weak cues from the Asian markets.

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Moreover increase in unemployment numbers in US and China’s measures to cool its real estate market raised the uncertainty over the global economic growth. Now, Investors are much wary over the signs of overheating in China as its economy grew almost 12%, the biggest expansion since 2007, Industrial production grew 18.1% in March & retail sales increased 18%. Closer home IIP numbers for the month of February grew by 15.1% as against an annual gain of 16.7% in January, and 17.6% in December. While India’s inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index (WPI), surprisingly stayed almost unchanged in March at 9.90% as compared to 9.89% in February. However, it is expected that after the strong Industrial numbers, improving trade, healthy credit off take in the last fortnight of last financial year & high Inflation, RBI may take steps to suck liquidity by increasing Cash Reserve Ratio & give signals of higher interest rates to the banking system & industry as well by increasing both policy rates. The other concern emerging for the manufacturing growth is appreciating rupee.

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As a major proportion of manufactured goods are meant for exports, the rise in domestic currency will arrest exporters’ margin & may result in lower export.

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FII’s also were a bit cautious to actively participate in the market ahead of RBI’s policy review. In the current CY, FIIs have so far pumped in more than $5.42 billion, while in the month of April; they have been net buyers at $ 1.05 billion in the Indian markets. Expectation of the good corporate results is likely to play a catalyst role for the next direction of the market. World stocks & commodity markets fell across the board after the revelation of SEC announcing civil fraud charges against Goldman Sach’s. This incident is likely to have its effect on the markets in the coming week.

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After 9 weeks of continuous rally in Indian stock markets, the rally ended last week after Nifty closed down 1.85% for the week. With world stock markets including the commodities taking a sharp correction on Friday, it seems that temporarily a top has been made in the market and one should be careful.

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Nifty has support between 5200-5100 levels and Sensex between 17400-17200 levels.

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On the commodity front, a range trading is expected in metals and energy.

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Since last few weeks, bullions and base metals have been trading in upper zone but are unable to break the resistance. Once they break their resistance then only, traders’ can see a new trading range. Back at home, sharp appreciation in rupee is also locking the movements. Data from European Union is important for the week apart from PPI and housing data of US. If improvement continues then only commodities will trade in upper trading range or vice a versa. Agro commodities could be more volatile ahead of expiry of April contract on NCDEX. In agro commodities, guar could see further rise on improved fundamentals as well as technical.

Weekly Update 15th – 19th March

Here’s the weekly update again 🙂

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Its weekly overview of the Indian as well as of the Global economy.



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Despite volatility throughout the week, Indian market posted fifth consecutive weekly gains, the biggest stretch of weekly gains since June 2009, but closed flat on Friday erasing early gains as traders booked profits in selected stocks due to lack of triggers from global markets and as in line January IIP failed to lift sentiments of the market participants.

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On the contrary, though the broader index, Nifty closed in green but there was selling in mid cap and Small cap stocks as evident from the fact that BSE Midcap Index was down -0.51 per cent and BSE Small cap Index moved -0.79 per cent lower.

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On the Global Markets front; except Shanghai Comp., all the Asian markets closed in green.  🙂  European markets too closed in the positive terrain led by banking stocks.

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Both FTSE 100 and CAC 40 were up by 0.47 per cent and 0.42 per cent respectively. 🙂

Even mixed economic reports held the US stock market to only modest moves on Friday but gains for the week were strong.

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Uneven figures on retail sales and consumer confidence gave investors little new insight into the economy. If we talk about Indian economy, some concerns pertaining to further tightening in monetary policy after a partial withdrawal of fiscal stimulus in the budget have emerged in the light of robust manufacturing activity as indicated by IIP numbers.

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A sustained recovery in India’s industrial output which stood at 16.7% in January on a YoY basis as against 17.6% YoY growth recorded in the month of December and ballooning inflation is expected to force RBI to hike policy rates in its monetary policy review on 20’Th April.

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The food price index rose 17.81% in the 12 months to 27 February 2010, while the fuel price index was up 11.38%.

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FIIs net investment in Indian equity markets has crossed $75 billion mark. So far in calendar year 2010, FIIs have made net investments of $2.5 billion, of which $2.3 billion net flow made in last eight trading days since Union Budget 2010 held on February 26, reflecting the strong economic fundamentals of Indian economy, as well as confidence of the foreign investors in the growth and stability of the Indian market.

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For the forth coming weeks, advance tax payment by the major corporate will give an indication of fourth quarter earnings & would help market to take further direction in the coming week.

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Overall trend of world markets is up. The fall in the dollar index and rise in Euro from lower levels is giving support to stock markets.

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Nifty has support between 5030-4950 and Sensex between 16700-16400 levels. The coming week will give more clarity after the FOMC meet.

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As the rally after the budget had been swift and markets had a five week continuous rally, it seems that our markets are more in a consolidation mode before they take their next direction.

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Right now, investors are mostly following the “Wait & Watch” strategy and refraining to build heavy position at the time when market is expecting mixed outcome of economic releases and dollar index is oscillating between ranges.

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Market is waiting for clear direction. Recent downtrend in LME stocks is offset by still-slow pace of demand recovery, and we expect a range trading in base metals complex with downside bias.

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News that China has started work on its second phase of state strategic oil reserves in the southern province of Guangdong, is limiting the downside in crude oil prices.

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However, cautious trading is advised here as it appears overbought.

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Stay Tuned for More updates

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please click here

Weekly Update of The Market (08th-12th February)

Hello Friends, here, we bring you the weekly overview of the Indian as well as of the Global economy and  latest global business and industry updates.

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Weekly Update of The Market (08th-12th February)

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After starting the year on a good note & Indices making fresh highs within few weeks many Asian markets have corrected between 7 to 10%.

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The global sell off over sovereign debt problems in Europe and an unexpected rise in jobless claims in US put investors on the defensive mode.

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The anxiety about sovereign debt in Greece, Portugal and Spain sparked a sell-off in the Euro & has led strength to US dollar.

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Foreign investors sell off is an outcome of dollar-carry-trade unwinding as when they borrowed the dollar was cheap & now it is recovering.

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Investors viewed the markets in year 2010 with confidence in view of recovery gaining momentum is now shaken over the debt problems, nascent economic recovery & confidence of the governments that stand behind the euro.

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Efforts of China to curb lending preventing overheating in economy also pose a risk to derail the global recovery.

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Back at home, the effect of turmoil in the international market also made government to think its strategy on ambitious disinvestment programme.

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🙂

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Lukewarm response to the NTPC, the much awaited issue managed to get subscription of just 1.2 times on its closing day.

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The maximum bid of 20.87 crore shares was put by Indian institution under the first time adopted French Auction route.

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This has challenged the finance Ministry hopes on the proceeds from disinvestments to make up the sliding revenue & rising expenditure.

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While it looks that PSU disinvestment may not yield desired results on market weakness, the 3G auction i.e. expected to garner Rs. 35,000 crore could be postponed to next fiscal year.

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The fate of some of the IPO’s like NMDC, Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Ltd and Rural Electrification Corporation that are on the disinvestment agenda before March 31, looks tough to sail through, if the stock markets do not rise and big investors do not come back.

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On the contrary, Banks like Bank of Baroda & Indian Bank that were expected to raise money overseas have put now their plans on hold.

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The good news from the external sector continued as the data showed a 9.3% annual increase in exports in December to $14.6 billion, a second consecutive month rise.

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While imports increased by 27.2% from a year earlier to $24.75 billion.

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Food inflation remained at high levels & rose to 17.56% in the week ended 23 January 2010 from 17.40% in the previous week on the back of rising pulses & potato prices.

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Markets are likely to take a closer view of the advance estimates on economic growth for the current fiscal ending March 2010 scheduled to be released on Monday.

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In the days to come an activity in the sectors like railways, fertiliser, textiles, pharma, education, power and infrastructure may be seen on expected positive policy announcements and budgetary sops.

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It was clearly mentioned last week that world markets are going in downtrend and one should be careful in such a scenario and that one should be moving in cash.

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Now the markets have taken a very sharp fall last week due to rise in Dollar Index and fall in all asset classes.

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The coming week might see some counter rally from lower levels.

Nifty faces resistance between 4900-5000 levels and Sensex between 16400-17000 levels.

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If we talk about commodity markets then one can see that strengthening dollar and lack of firm global cues had pressurized commodities prices to move southward.

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Investors are selling riskier assets and putting their money in dollar as a safe haven buying.

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Debt concerns facing Greece, Portugal and Spain coupled with dollar index which is trading above the mark of 80 is most likely to compel commodities to trade lower.

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French and euro zone GDP, USD advance retail sales, USD U. of Michigan Confidence will give further direction to commodities.

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Investors should keep an eye on gold – silver ratio.

It was 58:1 few months back, now reached to 67:1 on MCX, heading towards the level of 70:1.

It is demonstrating more selling in silver.

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🙂

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Stay Tuned for More on weekly updates.

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please click here

Indian Stock Traders To Contend With Fewer Holidays in 2010 !

Indian Stock Traders To Contend With Fewer Holidays in 2010

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Indian brokerages and traders would have to contend with fewer trading holidays in 2010, going by the list of weekdays on which the markets will remain closed in 2010.

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Moreover, they would have to put in longer hours this year owing to the decision of stock exchanges to increase the trading hours.

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In comparison to 2009, when there were 19 holidays throughout the year, the projected number of public holidays in 2010 has dropped to just 11, including the first day of the year.

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As per the official of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), this is certainly not by design.

Eight holidays this year — including Dussehra, Guru Nanak’s birthday, Christmas, Independence Day — fall either on a Saturday or Sunday,” he said.

“It’s only that we have mentioned them on our holiday list.”

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According to SMC Capital’s Jagannadham Thunuguntla, the Securities and Exchange Board of India was already contemplating a cut in the number of holidays to align the Indian markets with other peers, where trading holidays are restricted to six-seven a year.

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“This year, coincidentally, this has fallen in place. Many festivals and events are on weekends. That’s why, if you notice, today has been declared a holiday as a consolation to us,” Thunuguntla told.

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The authorities at the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) have not only increased the trading hours by 55 minutes but have also decided not to advance the opening bell this year .

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From Jan 4 onwards, trading will commence at 9 a.m., while the closing bell will ring at 3.30 p.m. in a move intended to woo foreign funds from other major Asian markets like Singapore and Hong Kong.

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RUBBER – STRETCHING & MOVING ON THE WAY AHEAD Part 1

Hello Friends here we come up with another write up on “Commodity Corner Series”.

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Topic is RUBBER ………… “STRETCHING & MOVING ON THE WAY AHEAD”

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RUBBER - STRETCHING & MOVING ON THE WAY AHEAD

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We would touch upon aspects like the investment scenario of rubber in India and price movement of the rubber in Indian market.

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We would also read about the gap in the demand and supply of the rubber in the market.

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Rubber is springy & has the potential energy of getting stretched.

These properties are also seen in the price movement of the prices.

The year 2009, has given stretchable & phenomenal return on investing in rubber futures.

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INDIAN SCENARIO :

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The four-month period between October and January is the peak season of rubber output in the country.

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The total area of plantations in the country is 662,000 hectares of which 92-93 per cent is in Kerala.

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Tripura is the second-largest rubber planting state in India after Kerala.

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DEMAND & SUPPLY GAP –Walkthrough 2009:

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As we know that profit increases when the difference or the gap between the cost price & the selling price increases.

This immense gap was witnessed in rubber prices.

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Tight supply & tracking the rise in Asian markets like Tokyo and Singapore gave momentum to the prices to rise through out the year.

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The Indian industry consumed 356,400 tonnes of natural rubber (58 per cent of the total domestic consumption) during April-November.

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In April-November, natural rubber production in India dropped 6.5 per cent at 538,125 tonnes against an increase of 3.5 per cent in consumption at 614,600 tonnes.

So there was a gap of 76,475 tonnes in production and consumption.

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PRICE MOVEMENT “Focus on the journey, not the destination”:

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The spot prices at the benchmark Kochi had begun its journey at Rs.67.23/Kg & touched the high of Rs. 139.19 within a year.

Strong appreciation in prices in all major global markets which touched Rs 130.48 per kg, made the domestic market bullish.

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Similarly, the futures at MCX posted a gain of 78.94% as of 22nd December, 2009.

This spike was also supported by the increased gap between production & supply.

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Next Blog we would read about the impact of the shortage of rubber industry on major industries and the scenario of the rubber production in other countries.

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Stay Tuned for more on this.

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