DAILY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

13/12/2010

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Major Market Updates:

13/12/10

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• U.S. currency rose after benchmark Treasury yields reached a six-month high last week on speculation an extension of tax cuts will boost U.S. growth.

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• The Australian dollar snapped a two-day gain following a report showing China’s inflation surged, stoking concern the Asian nation will raise interest rates to cool its economy.

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• Retail sales probably climbed in November for a fifth consecutive month as Americans began their holiday shopping, showing consumers are playing a bigger role in the U.S. recovery, economists said before a report this week.

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03/11/10

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• The dollar suffered slight losses vs. the euro and the yen Tuesday as financial markets settled back to await the outcome of a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee that began Tuesday afternoon.


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• The Japanese yen weakened yesterday as the rallying stocks and the interest rates hike in Australia added to the signs of the global economic recovery, decreasing the demand for the safer currencies.


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• The reserve bank of India boosted the repurchase rate by a quarter-point to 6.25 percent and the reverse repurchase rate by a similar margin to 5.25 percent with immediate effect.


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• Congressional elections in the US are expected to result in a shift of power towards the Republicans in Congress. The situation isn’t so easy for the Obama administration, so things aren’t expected to dramatically change.

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02/11/10

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• A surprisingly strong report on U.S. manufacturing gave a boost to the dollar. The currency got a lift just days before the Federal Reserve is expected to launch a big bond buying program to support the weak U.S. economy.


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• The Canadian dollar gained today against its US counterpart as oil, the main nation’s export, advanced and on the speculation that the quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve would weaken the US currency.


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• China’s manufacturing growth also bolstered the South African rand as it has increased the appeal of the higher-yielding currencies.

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29/10/10

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• The dollar’s weak attempt at holding back the speculative selling tides would fail this week, with EURUSD eventually reviving its month-long bull trend to overtake the closely watched 1.40 level.

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• The U.S. dollar drifted lower against the euro and yen in Asia Thursday, as market players continued to re-calibrate their expectations of the size of fresh Federal Reserve easing measures expected to be announced next week.

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• The Great Britain pound surged as the report this week showed the faster growth of the UK economy in the third quarter, causing the speculation that the next round of the quantitative easing would be postponed.

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• The U.S dollar weakened for the first time in three days against the euro in overnight trading, as Asian stocks gained amid optimism the global economic recovery remains intact, damping demand for the greenback as a refuge.

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28/10/10

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• The US dollar climbed yesterday against all other major currencies on the speculation that the bonds purchases by the Federal Reserve would be less extensive than anticipated.


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• French consumer spending climbed more than economists forecast in September as expectations of better job prospects and higher wages boosted confidence. Spending rose 1.5 percent from August, when it declined 1.6 percent.


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• The dollar edged higher against the yen and euro on Wednesday after the Wall Street Journal said the Federal Reserve was likely to unveil plans for gradual Treasury purchases at its policy meeting next week.

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27/10/10

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• The dollar rose after the euro again lost momentum near $1.40 on Tuesday, while the yen fell from a 15-year peak after a Japanese minister called gains one-sided and warned authorities could act to stem further yen strength.


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• The U.S. dollar looked set to stay firm in Asia on Wednesday after a strong bounce overnight while stellar UK growth data that diminished chances of more imminent policy easing was likely to keep the pound buoyed.


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• The Australian Dollar sank against the spectrum of major currencies after third-quarter Consumer Price Index figures fell short of expectations, weighing heavily on the outlook for future interest rate hikes


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• The People’s Bank of China set the Yuan’s central parity rate at 6.8283 to the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, slightly higher than the 6.8284 rate set Tuesday.

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26/10/10

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• The US dollar slumped today as the G-20 meeting failed to provided any reasonable plan on how to avoid the competitive devaluation of the currencies across the world, fueling the speculation about future quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.


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• U.S. sales of existing homes, town homes rose 10.0% to a 4.53 million sale annual rate, another month of a “solid recovery” as the housing market continues to heal on its own without a government tax credit, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday morning.


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• The Great Britain pound fell today against the Japanese yen after report showed the number of the mortgage approval decreased more than expected. The pound gained against the US dollar, which fell against all other currencies.

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25/10/10

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• The dollar was holding a mixed tone in quiet afternoon dealings Friday, with the greenback essentially unchanged vs. the euro after modest morning chop while able to secure slight gains vs. the yen.

 

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• The People’s Bank of China set the Yuan’s central parity rate at 6.6729 against the U.S. dollar on Monday, higher than last Friday’s parity of 6.6759

 

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• The European Central Bank is keeping a close eye on the euro and its potential for further appreciation as it ponders the pace of its exit from very accommodative policy.

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• The euro rose against the Swiss franc after the report showed the unexpected growth of the German business confidence. The euro fluctuated versus the US dollar, but had tendency to rise gradually.

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22/10/10

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• Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment benefits fell by 23,000 to 452,000 in the October 16 holiday  week after seasonal adjustment, almost reversing the previous week’s 26,000 rise, the U.S. Labor  Department reported Thursday.


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• The German government has raised its GDP forecasts for this year and next to +3.4% and +1.8%, respectively, from the +1.4% and +1.6% projected in April, the Economics Ministry said Thursday.


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• U.K. retail sales unexpectedly dropped in September for a second month as consumers bracing for the government’s budget squeeze curbed spending on items from clothing to gasoline.

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21/10/10

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• The dollar dipped against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, it made after a surprise rate hike by China spurred the market to lower risk exposure, but was seen likely to stay supported due to the potential for
further short-covering.


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• The U.S. Dollar Index slipped in Asian trading today, falling after yesterday’s surprise rate hike by the People’s Bank of China.


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• The decline in Japanese corporate demand for financing via bank loans decelerated in July-September from the previous quarter a survey of senior loan officers by the Bank of Japan showed Thursday.

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20/10/10

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• The People’s Bank of China’s decision earlier to raise the one-year deposit rate and one-year lending rate by 25 basis points, the first since December 2007, prompted a wave of profit-taking in riskier instruments, with emerging markets and commodities especially hard hit Tuesday.

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• Federal Reserve Gov. Elizabeth Duke Tuesday night indicated she is not ready to take sides in the public debate over whether to expand quantitative easing yet said that most of the Fed’s impact is from expectations, not execution, of policy

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• The dollar was able to rack up solid gains vs. the euro Tuesday while holding its own against the yen on a day when a surprise interest rate hike by the Bank of China rattled global markets.

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18/10/10

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• Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke once advocated setting an inflation target to keep prices from rising too fast. Bernanke said Friday that inflation is too low and that the Fed could modify its statement to signal interest rates will stay low for longer than investors expect.

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• Japanese industrial production fell 0.5% in August from July, revised down from a preliminary 0.3% drop and marking the third straight monthly decline after -0.2% in July and -1.1% in June, data from the Ministry of Economy.

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• Retail sales at U.S. stores rose 0.6% in September, with gains in most of the categories, though sales excluding motor vehicles posted a smaller 0.4% rise in the month, data released Friday morning by the U.S.

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15/10/10

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• The European Central Bank said interest rates in the 16-nation euro region are “appropriate,” indicating it sees no immediate need to tighten policy.

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• The Chinese Yuan climbed against the US dollar today to its highest level since 1993 on the speculation the Chinese policy makers will submit to the international pressure to allow the currency appreciate with faster pace.

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• The Governing Council continues “to view the current key ECB interest rates as appropriate” and the monetary policy stance remains “accommodative,” the Frankfurtbased ECB said in its monthly bulletin published today

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• US, Producer Price Index was better than expected with a reading of 0.4%. a more modest rise of 0.2% is forecasted now while the Core PPI is likely to remain the same as in August at 0.1%.

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13/10/10

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• The dollar weakened after the Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes of its policy makers’ meeting, which signaled about the second round of quantitative easing.

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• A highly-anticipated look into the Fed’s thought process was interpreted by markets as supportive of risk appetite, as well as the current downtrend in the U.S. Dollar.


• Japan went on the offensive as currency tensions escalated, charging on Wednesday that South Korea’s leadership of the G20 could be called into question because of Seoul’s regular intervention to stem the won’t rise.

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• The US Federal Reserve anticipates additional stimulus may be needed soon to prop up a slackening economic recovery, the minutes of its last policy-setting meeting have revealed.

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12/10/10

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• The U.S. dollar continues to slide on almost all fronts. As a result, during the past week the euro reached a 5-month high against the dollar and the Japanese yen saw a 15-year high vs. the greenback Bookmark.

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• The dollar’s ongoing devaluation is the result of positive indications from the U.S. economy, which supports risk appetite in the market. Economic reports from the past week show that the number of contracts to purchase previously owned homes increased by 4.3% in August

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• The Yuan touched the highest level versus the US dollar today in more than two years on the speculation that China would allow its currency appreciate as the US and Europe threaten to implement the trade sanctions.

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08/10/10

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• The US dollar fell today to the lowest level since February against the euro and the Great Britain pound before rebounding and extended its decline versus the Japanese yen.

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• The dollar weakened on the speculation that the Federal Reserve would resume its purchases of the government debt to stimulate the US economy.

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• Moves in the FX market were volatile in a day that had multiple decisions by European central banks and better than expected weekly jobs data. Commodities were hit hard with both gold and spot crude oil falling sharply.

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06/10/10

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• The dollar touched an eight-month low versus the euro on speculation the Federal Reserve will join the Bank of Japan in increasing purchases of government debt.


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• Bank of Japan rate decision which has opened some decent selling in the Yen after the BOJ also surprised markets by easing monetary policy further, effectively lowering rates to 0.0% (0.0%-0.10%) and  concurrently stepping up asset purchases.


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• The BOJ cut its overnight call rate target to 0-0.1 percent from 0.1 percent, said it would create a 5 trillion yen ($60 billion) pool of funds to buy a wide range of assets and said it would keep zero rates until prices stabilized.


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• The greenback held on to gains despite a release of mixed economic data. While pending home sales showed an increase of 4.3% in August, factory orders fell 0.5%, a worse than expected result.

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05/10/10

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• The dollar rose on Monday, recovering earlier losses as traders cut bets the currency will weaken, which have been piling up on speculation the Federal Reserve may further ease U.S. monetary policy


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• The dollar surged higher on Monday in a short-covering rally against the yen, which retreated against other currencies as investors unwound some long yen positions ahead of a Bank of Japan policy meeting this week.


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• The euro was unable to hold earlier gains made after China pledged on Sunday to support a stable euro and not to reduce its holdings of European government bonds.

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04/10/10

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• Asian central banks have been buying USDs, but USD not really in demand so makes equation more and more perplexing..
• US dollar continues unabated. Over the last three weeks, it has appreciated by 4.4% against the greenback, rising to a 5-month high.. 


• Dollar the Worst Performer into the Weekend as Risk Perks Up but Fails to Curb Stimulus Fears

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• Euro’s Climb Unimpeded by High Unemployment as Traders Turn to Next Week’s ECB Decision.

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• Currency markets are likely to focus on the US ISM Manufacturing report, looking past the European set of economic data releases.

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01/10/10

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• The US dollar reached its lowest level against the euro in five months Wednesday, as investors anticipated a Federal Reserve move to boost the ailing economy by renewing spending policies.


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• The euro slid against the Japanese yen on the concerns for the costs required to bailout Ireland’s banks and after Spain’s credit rating was downgraded. The currency rose against the US dollar.


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• British pound finds limited confidence on BoE Posen’s flexibility with his stimulus vote.


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• Japanese yen loaded with event risk but traders will be preoccupied with intervention’s ineffectiveness.

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29/09/10

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• The dollar fell broadly today as a decline in U.S. consumer confidence, to the lowest level since February, increased expectations that the Federal Reserve is more likely to print money in order to buy assets.


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• The dollar index broke its support at 79.50 and dropped to the lowest level since February. The index is in a clearly defined downtrend, indicating further declines.


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• Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in seven months in September, underscoring lingering worries about the strength of the economic recovery.


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• Amid the central bank movements from the United States and Japan, the euro zone has been eerily silent regarding its currency valuation and interest rates.

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28/09/10

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• The dollar’s downfall came after several positive U.S. economic indicators were released last week. The U.S. sales of previously owned homes rose in August to a 4.13 million, up from 3.84 million in July..
• The euro’s bullishness followed positive European economic releases, which indicated that the euro-zone is likely to overcome the economic slowdown.. 


• The Canadian dollar fell today after the stocks and the crude oil prices declined, erasing the demand for the growth-related currencies.

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• New Zealand Dollar Rapidly Losing its Investment Status as 10 Year Yield Slides Below Australia Return.

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27/09/10

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• Seven European banks would not be strong enough to withstand another recession and would face a capital shortfall of 3.5billion euros ($4.5 trillion), tests run in an attempt to revive investor..
• The Obama administration warned on Friday the U.S. economy had encountered “strong headwinds” and the country’s fiscal challenge remained grave, but it lowered an estimate for the budget deficit this year.. 


• Two top ratings agencies said on Friday they might downgrade Hungary’s sovereign debt after its prime minister snubbed the IMF and rejected austerity measures in favour of a pro growth policy.

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• The Indian rupee rose to its strongest level in a week on Friday boosted by a rise in global risk appetite after a string of strong data and expectations of bullish bank stress test results in Europe.

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24/09/10

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• The euro fell today as the reports signaled that the European economic recovery may be slowing, diminishing the attractiveness of the shared 16-nation currency to the investors..
• The housing market showed a renewed signs of life. The Existing Home Sales Mom,released by the conference Board, rose 7.6% to an annualized 4.13M. 

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• The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at record lows at 0-0.25%.

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• The U.S dollar has endured weakness across the board as the marked views the commentary as an additional step toward quantitative easing

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23/09/10

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• The U.S dollar hits its lowest level in seven weeks against a basket of currencies

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• An appreciation of 20 percent in China’s currency would cause widespread bankruptcies in China’s export sector.


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• Japan’s Nikkei average slipped 0.5 percent on Wednesday as the yen edged higher after the Federal Reserve’s latest statement on the U.S economy.


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• New Zealand’s economy slowed unexpectedly in second quarter as manufacturing activity fell,

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22/09/10

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• The Dollar fell broadly today against 15 of its 16 most traded counterparts after the Federal Reserve stated concerns at the slowing pace of the U.S. economy

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• The euro gained against the dollar Tuesday after several successful auctions of eurozone government debt helped allay concerns over the region’s festering fiscal issues.

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• The pound edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, to trade in a tight range ahead of the release of a highly anticipated rate statement by the Federal Reserve’s policy setting committee

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17/09/10

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• Swiss Franc drops sharply against Euro and dollar after SNB left rates unchanged and lowered its inflation forecast.
• Japan’s Yen intervention continued in US session and sent the yen over 3% lower against dollar, Euro and Canadian dollar to close the day. 

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• Jobless claims fell 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 450,000. However, bad news followed as the Labor Department also reported a 0.4% rise in producer prices fueled by a surge in energy costs.

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• The Federal Reserve of Philadelphia released today their own September Manufacturing Survey resulting in -0.7 index points.

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• The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the data concerning August’s Producer Price Index: the MoM at 0.4% and the YoY at 3.1%

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16/09/10

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• Japan’s Yen intervention continued in US session and sent the yen over 3% lower against dollar, Euro and Canadian dollar to close the day. Japan started buying dollar, selling yen in Asian session, a day after PM Naoto Kan won leadership re-election..• The Federal Reserve Board released Augusts’ Industrial Production report; the indicator retreated to 0.2%, while Capacity Utilization ticked up to 74.7%.. 

• Us industrial output slowed last month and factory activity touch 14th month low.

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• Australian industrial activity slowed sharply in the quarter as global conditions and political uncertainty at home created concerns’.

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• Newzealand kept interest rate constant

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Major Market Updates:

13/09/10

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• The euro was up against the yen on Monday, rising to a 4-day high, amid increased risk appetite after new banking regulations imposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision were less strict than expected..
• EUR/JPY hit 107.75 during European morning trade, the pair’s highest since September 7; the pair subsequently consolidated at 107.64, gaining 0.88%.The pair was likely to find support at 105.78, the low of September 8, and resistance at 109.54, the high of September 3.. 


• The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision agreed on new banking regulations. While the committee increased the amount of capital banks must set aside against potential losses, it gave them up to eight years to comply with the new rules.

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06/09/10

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• The nonfarm payrolls release outdid expectations does not mean that there was more jobs created than lost. Actually the figure stands at 54K jobs obliterated in the tumbling economy that is the Us’. The previous was revised down, coincidentally to -54K, while expectations stood at -105K..
• The big picture still suggests we are in a jobless recovery. The focus of today’s report will be on the private sector. An anemic jobs number is likely to cause companies to continue to conserve cash and refrain from hiring. One key factor that remains a major concern is the high level of the weekly jobless claims number.. 


• The number of unemployed persons (14.9 million) and the unemployment rate(9.6 percent) were little changed in August. From May through August, thejobless rate remained in the range of 9.5 to 9.7 percent

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03/09/10

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• Pending sales of previously owned U.S. homes rebounded unexpectedly in July and new claims for jobless benefits fell last week, hopeful signs for the sputtering economic recovery..• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained on Thursday, building on their best day in eight weeks in the previous session as data showed an improvement..• Higher household spending and investment drove euro zone growth in the second quarter of 2010, while first quarter growth was also stronger than thought. 

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• The European Central Bank extended its liquidity safety net for vulnerable euro zone banks into next year, delaying its exit from crisis measures for now as it urged caution about the economic recovery.

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02/09/10

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The U.S. manufacturing sector grew faster than expected in August but private employers unexpectedly cut jobs, showing the economic recovery still faces headwinds..
• World trade continued to rebound strongly in the first half of this year, rising by over a quarter from year-ago .. 


• The U.S. dollar fell against major currencies on Wednesday after upbeat data around the world soothed worries about the health of the global economy, boosting investors’ appetite for riskier assets.

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• The Australian dollar rallied 2 percent against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday after upbeat economic data around the world lifted risk appetite.

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01/09/10

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• U.S. consumer confidence edged up in August while prices for U.S. homes gained more than expected in June, providing a little relief for those concerned about a slowdown in the economic recovery.

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• Japanese factory output edged up in July but manufacturing activity in August expanded at its slowest pace in more than a year, suggesting that companies were starting to feel the pinch from an export slowdown and a strong yen.

.• Net lending to British households unexpectedly fell to a four-month low last month after a sharp decline in mortgage lending. .
• Canada’s economic growth rate slowed more sharply than expected in the second quarter on weaker consumer spending and trade performance.

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31/08/10

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• The Bank of Japan boosted its cheap loan scheme on Monday, bowing to government pressure for
action to protect a fragile recovery by curbing the yen’s rise, while cabinet ministers signalled they may intervene to weaken the currency.

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• U.S. stocks dipped on Monday as confidence about the economy sagged and investors were cautious ahead of several key reports coming this week..
• Euro zone economic sentiment improved by more than expected in August and inflation expectations were muted, data showed on Monday, auguring well for continued economic recovery in the third quarter..  

 

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27/08/10

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• New U.S. jobless claims fell more than expected last week but were too high to signal a shift in a weak labor market that is constraining economic growth.

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• British retail sales volumes rose at their fastest pace in more than three years in August, a survey by the Confederation of British Industry suggested, boosting hopes economic recovery may be gaining traction.

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• The dollar erased losses versus the Japanese yen on Thursday after a government report showed new U.S. claims for unemployment benefits fell more that expected last week.

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• Sterling rose against the dollar on Thursday, recovering after falling for much of this month, as a rise in global equities prompted investors to take profit on the dollar’s recent gains.

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24/08/10

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• The euro zone’s economic recovery moderated only slightly in August and companies are more optimistic about the coming months despite a divergence in growth rates between countries, a survey showed on Monday.

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• India on Monday offered incentives to some exporters to help them tide over an uncertain and “fragile” global economic recovery, but said fiscal consolidation might not allow continued support in the future.

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• The euro edged lower on Monday, hurt by concerns over the euro zone economy and prospects of loose monetary policy until year-end, leading investors to bet against the single currency.

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19/08/10

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U.S. mortgage applications leaped last week as rock-bottom rates lifted demand for home refinancing loans to its highest level in 15 months, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.

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• World stocks resumed their bearish run on Wednesday after tepid earnings reports from some big U.S. companies and energy shares fell as crude oil prices remained under pressure after a disappointing industry report.

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• Bank of England rate-setters mulled the case for both easing and tightening policy this month before voting eight to one to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5 percent, minutes showed on Wednesday.

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18/08/10

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The New York Empire manufacturing index plummeted from 19.6 to 5.1 – the lowest level this year.

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• The dollar and yen fell on Tuesday as investors sought riskier assets. July US economic data were mixed. Producer prices rose for the first time since March and industrial production grew for the fourth time in five months, but building permits dropped to the lowest level since May 2009.

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• US producer prices grew as forecast 0.2% m/m in July, the first increase in four months, after a 0.5% m/m decline in June, according to PPI data from the Labor Department


 

For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18.


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.

 

 

Major Market Updates:

.                                                                       16/08/10

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The dollar on Friday chalked up its best week against major currencies in nearly two years as a lackluster Italian debt sale and tepid U.S. consumer data fed fear that slower U.S. growth would hurt the world economy..
• Sterling rose to a six-week high versus the euro on Friday as the shared currency stayed pressured by concerns over economies on the euro zone periphery..
• U.S. retail sales rebounded in July but showed hints of lingering economic softness, as did inflation data showing underlying price pressures stuck at their lowest level since the 1960s..
• U.S. business inventories rose in June to their highest level in a year while sales fell, suggesting consumer demand may have been weaker than firms had anticipated. 

.


 

For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18.


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13/08/10


• The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week to the highest level in close to six months, the latest evidence the economy’s recovery is faltering.

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• Euro zone industrial production declined in June, with output in France and Germany falling sharply.

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• Spain will need to make extra budget cuts in 2011 and must not be over-optimistic about economic growth.

For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18.


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12/08/10

Major Market Updates:

.

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• The U.S. trade gap widened a surprising 18.8 percent in June on a wave of consumer imports from China and other suppliers, suggesting U.S. second-quarter economic growth was weaker than previously thought.

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• U.S. stocks erased the year’s gains in a broad selloff on Wednesday as fears of sustained global economic stagnation caused investors to flee to safer assets.

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• The Bank of England left the door open on Wednesday for more monetary easing, cutting its forecast for UK economic growth and predicting that inflation would fall well below its 2 percent target in two years.

For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18.


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11/08/10

Major Market Updates:

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The Federal Reserve on Tuesday took a small but significant step to counter a weakening U.S. economic recovery, saying it would use cash from maturing mortgage bonds it holds to buy more government debt..
• The dollar hovered within sight of a 15-year low versus the yen on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced plans to boost a flagging economy..
• The Bank of Japan on Tuesday held off on new policy steps to combat a stronger yen, saving its limited firepower in case the currency’s rise accelerates and threatens the country’s fragile economic recovery..

For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18.


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10/08/10

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Major Market Updates:

• The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to maintain the fed funds target at a range of 0 to 0.25% at its August 10 policy meeting. The Fed may consider additional stimulus to boost slowing US economic growth..• Australia’s home-loan approvals fell a more-than-expected 3.9% m/m to 46,420 in June, the eighth fall in nine months, after an upwardly revised 3.0% m/m increase in May, a report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed..• The pound eased down from a higher open against the U.S. dollar on Monday, amid fresh fears the economic recovery in the U.S. is losing momentum after Friday’s weak jobs data.GBP/USD hit 1.5943 during European morning trade, a daily low, the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5954, shedding 0.06%.

.

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For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18.


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09/08/10

Major Market Updates:

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• The yen traded near an eight-month high against the dollar as Asian stocks fell and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its growth outlook for the U.S.

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• The dollar was near a three-month low against the euro on prospects the Federal Reserve ill take steps tomorrow toward providing more stimulus. .
• China’s exports grew 35 percent and imports rose 30 percent in July from a year earlier.Exports advanced 43.9 percent and imports gained 34.1 percent in June.

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For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18.


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05/08/10

Major Market Updates:

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• U.S. companies hired more workers in July but the gains are too slow to reduce unemployment and spur the economy significantly, reports showed on Wednesday.

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• The euro zone’s dominant service sector picked up speed last month, a survey showed on Wednesday, allaying fears of a double dip recession.

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• China’s economy will cool further this quarter as fiscal pump-priming starts to fade and the restocking cycle draws to a close, a government think tank said on Wednesday.

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For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18.


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.

04/08/10

Major Market Updates:

• U.S. consumer spending and incomes were flat in June while home purchase contracts tumbled to a record low, implying an anemic economic recovery for the remainder of this year.

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• Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the U.S. unemployment rate could rise for two months before it drops.

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• Australia’s central bank held interest rates steady for a third straight month on Tuesday, and moderating inflation at home combined with uncertainty abroad could allow it to pause for some time to come.

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For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18.


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03/08/10

Major Market Updates:

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• Global stocks surged to a 2-1/2 month high and the euro hit a three-month high on Monday as growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector topped expectations and European bank earnings boosted optimism. .
• Sterling rallied to a six-month high against a broadly weaker dollar on Monday, lifted by buoyant risk appetite and higher British share prices on the back of solid earnings from UK bank HSBC..
• The U.S. economy is improving but has yet to recover fully, with high unemployment and a weak housing market leaving consumers unsettled, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday..
 

 

For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18.


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.

02/08/10

Major Market Updates:

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• The dollar hit its lowest since November against the Japanese yen on Friday as data showed growth in the world’s largest economy is slowing.

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• Sterling hit a five-month high versus the dollar on Friday on month-end demand for higher-risk currencies, as investors were unconvinced slightly weak U.S. economic data meant the country was set for a double-dip recession.

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• U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter as companies invested heavily in equipment from abroad and the pace of consumer spending eased, raising concerns about the recovery in the rest of 2010.

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For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18.

.


30/07/10

Major Market Updates:

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• New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits slipped last week, but stayed at a stubbornly high level that underscored the labor market recovery was having trouble gaining traction.

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• Euro zone economic sentiment rose strongly in July, buoyed by figures from Germany that point to a recovery as the currency area overcomes the sovereign debt crisis.

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• The euro rallied above $1.3100 to a 12-week high against a broadly weaker dollar on Thursday.

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For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18

.


29/07/10

Major Market Updates:

.

• The U.S. dollar rallied against the euro but slid against the yen on Wednesday as weaker than- expected U.S. durable goods orders added to fears about economic recovery in the world’s largest economy..
• Sterling hit a five-month high against the dollar on Wednesday as investors shrugged off dovish comments from the Bank of England and resumed their optimism in the wake of a run of encouraging UK economic data..
• New Zealand’s central bank raised its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3 percent on Thursday, and said further rate hikes will likely be slower than previously expected..

For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18

.


28/07/10

Major Market Updates:

• Job worries drove July U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest since February, with one in six people expecting lower income in the next six months..• British retail sales grew at their fastest pace in three years in July, and retailers were their most upbeat in 6 years about the prospects for August..• Spain’s treasury easily auctioned 3.4 billion euros ($4.39 billion) of 3- and 6-month bills on Tuesday, with the average yield falling from a month earlier for the first time since March..

For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18

.


27/07/10

Major Market Updates:

• The euro held near a two-month peak against the dollar on Tuesday on relief over stress tests on European banks, but it was capped at $1.30.

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• Sales of new U.S. homes rebounded strongly in June from May’s record low, pushing the number of houses on the market to the lowest level in nearly 42 years.

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• A key measure of U.S. business borrowing continued to show modest signs of improvement in June

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For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18

.


26/07/10

Major Market Updates:

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• Seven European banks would not be strong enough to withstand another recession and would face a capital shortfall of 3.5billion euros ($4.5 trillion), tests run in an attempt to revive investor.

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• The Obama administration warned on Friday the U.S. economy had encountered “strong headwinds” and the country’s fiscal challenge remained grave, but it lowered an estimate for the budget deficit this year.

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• Two top ratings agencies said on Friday they might downgrade Hungary’s sovereign debt after its prime minister snubbed the IMF and rejected austerity measures in favour of a pro growth policy.

..

For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18

.



23/07/10


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• Consumer confidence in the euro zone climbed to a 26-month high in July as the currency area is shaking off the debt crisis, figures showed on Thursday..• The Federal Reserve may try to push borrowing costs even lower if the job market continues to languish, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday..• Sales of previously owned U.S. homes hit a three-month low in June while new claims for jobless benefits surged last week , claiming the fragile recovery..

For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18

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22/07/10

Major Market Updates:

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• The euro fell sharply against the dollar while the yen rallied on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke expressed concern about the U.S. economy and dampened risk appetite.

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• President Barack Obama signed into law on Wednesday the most comprehensive financial regulatory overhaul since the Great Depression, vowing to stop risky behavior on Wall Street that imperiled the U.S. economy.

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• The current drive to cut government debt and spending in the euro zone could reduce the region’s economic growth in the coming years, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday..

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For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18



21/07/10


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• U.S. housing starts hit their lowest level in eight months in June, further evidence the economy lost momentum in the second quarter.

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• The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate on Tuesday by 25bps as expected, but warned the domestic and global recovery will be slower than it had previously forecast.

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• Britain’s public sector net cash requirement rose unexpectedly last month compared to the same time a year ago thereby disappointing improvement in Britain’s fiscal position.

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For Complete Daily Currency Outlook Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18

.


19/07/10


• Weak energy costs pushed U.S. consumer prices down for a third straight month in June while consumer sentiment dropped to a near one-year low in July, highlighting the sluggishness of the economic recovery.

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• The euro stepped back after touching a two-month high versus a broadly weaker dollar on Friday, as investors bet that gains supported by rising European money market rates were overdone.

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• U.S. Treasuries rose on Friday as falling inflation and tumbling consumer sentiment enhanced the allure of safe-haven government bonds.

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For Full Report Please visit :  http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18

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16/07/10


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The Indian rupee rose on Thursday as a dovish outlook in the Federal Reserve minutes weakened the dollar to a two-month low, which triggered selling in the U.S. currency by local exporters. .
• World stocks dropped on Thursday and the dollar declined broadly after downbeat U.S. manufacturing and inflation data deepened worries that a double-dip recession could be at hand..
• The U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in May, led by a big jump in imports from China that helped overpower the best month for U.S. exports since September..  

For details please visit: http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18

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15/07/10


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• The euro hit a two-month high on Wednesday and the dollar fell against the yen as data showing U.S. retail sales declined for a second straight month stoked fears the U.S. recovery may be slowing..• President Barack Obama’s economic policies have significantly boosted U.S. growth and hiring this year, the White House said on Wednesday.

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For details please visit: http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18


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14/07/10


Week GBP data kept rates buoyant further and induces to higher levels in evening sessions.

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• Canada’s frothy economic recovery fueled an import surge in May, boosting the country’s modest trade deficit and suggesting another interest rate hike may be warranted.

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• The U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in May, led by a big jump in imports from China that helped overpower the best month for U.S. exports since September .

.

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• U.S. Senate Democrats on Tuesday appeared to nail down the votes needed to pass a historic rewrite of U.S. financial regulation with backing from another Democrat and moved to set up a final vote by the end of the week.

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For details please visit: http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18

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09/07/10


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• New U.S. claims for jobless benefits fell last week to their lowest level in two months, offering cautious hope for an economic recovery that had shown signs of fatigu.

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• Markets eagerly waiting for the coming crucial data from Japan, Great Britain and Eurozone which will decide the next trend else will rule out the probability of economic recovery in some minor profit booking.
.

• The International Monetary Fund upgraded its 2010 global growth forecast on Thursday, citing robust expansion in Asia and renewed U.S. private demand, but warned the euro area’s debt crisis posed a big risk to recovery

.

• The U.S. dollar will depreciate in value moderately over the next five years, the International Monetary Fund predicted on Thursday.

.

For details please visit: http://www.smctradeonline.com/Research/ResearchLogin.aspx?id=13&Report=18

06/07/10

Note: The above levels are only for intraday trading.

Major Market Updates:

.

• Euro recovered from the yesterdays low from the tight ranged markets but still lacking the strength.

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• The dollar and the yen gained in thin trade as investors reduced risk positions on Tuesday, while the Australian dollar fell ahead of a central bank decision where it is widely expected to be keep interest rates steady.

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• The greenback hit a seven-month trough of 86.96 yen last week on the back of growing worries about an economic slowdown in the United States. Four Spanish savings banks plan to combine to form the nation’s fifth-largest financial group with more than 135 billion Euros ($167 billion) in assets, as regulators push ailing lenders to merge with stronger partners.

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• Selling of currencies all across the board took place in Asia session against Yen as traders are still not ready to take risky assets in trade considerations..

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• Market still awaits for the clear trend keeping an eye over Canadian building permits, USA Employment trends and ABC Consumer confidence index along with GB Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index.

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11/06/10

Note: These are strong technical levels.

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Major Market Updates:

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• Euro is recovering its losses against dollar as fundamentals are influencing the currency.

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• The Euro rose yesterday for a third straight day as strong demand for Spanish bonds eased concern about the country’s ability to finance its debt and a spike in Chinese exports boosted confidence on global growth.

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• The European Central Bank promised extra cash yesterday to keep Euro Zone liquidity flush until the end of the year but kept a resolute silence on details of its controversial government bond buying programme.

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• The ECB left interest rates on hold as expected and raised slightly its 2010 growth forecast, though Trichet said the pace of growth would be uneven in coming quarters.

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• The labour market reforms in Spain, along with bank restructuring and reducing a budget deficit that is above 11 percent of national output, essential to solving Spain’s longer-term economic problems after a deep recession.

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• Euro zone weakling Portugal attracted strong demand at a bond auction on Wednesday and ruled out needing to draw on the Euro Zone rescue package.

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• The Bank of England left interest rates at a record low ahead of the government’s June 22 budget, which will detail the belt-tightening the UK faces as it tries to cut its deficit.

.

RUPEE

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• The rupee gained marginally tracking the Euro and global equity markets.

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• It is expected that the rupee is likely to trade in the range of 44-45 to a dollar by December if the situation in the Euro zone stabilizes.

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• High GDP and upward pressure on interest rates due to the high inflation figure is a positive for the rupee.

.

• According to the deputy governor of RBI the financial crisis was not around the world it was in some countries which spilled over.

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• He added the drive for global financial regulation must take into account regional and country differences and cannot impose the same solution on everybody. So each system has to evaluate what its core problems are and what it needs to do to end recurrence.

.

Disclaimer:

This report doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to anybody. The report is based upon information that may be considered reliable, but do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report.

The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive.

Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors 🙂 or employees assume any responsibility for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any trading/action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own investigations and judgment while taking any positions or investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the currencies thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such currencies and earn brokerage or other compensation (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of courts at Delhi.

Highlights: The dollar edged lower on Thursday after the Federal Reserve painted a less gloomy outlook for the U.S. economy, an assessment that led investors to return to commodity-linked currencies. As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates unchanged after its second day of deliberations. The Fed said it would slow the pace at which it buys Treasuries by extending the duration, but not the size, of its $300 billion programme to buy long-term government securities. Global markets seemed indecisive of whether they were on the path to recovery ahead of the FOMC report and after the FED statements, markets returned to their bullish trend with a sharp rise in the values of riskier assets.

Indian rupee snapped a two-day losing streak and rose on Thursday as gains in local shares boosted hopes for inflows, with a weakness in the dollar after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s comments also underpinning sentiment. The U.S. Fed said on Wednesday the world’s largest economy was showing signs of levelling out two years after the onset of the deepest financial crisis in decades and it moved to phase out one emergency measure. Indian shares benchmarks rose over 2 percent early, joining higher Asian peers, as investor appetite for riskier assets was boosted after the Federal Reserve’s comments. Foreign funds have bought a net $7.4 billion so far in 2009 after having sold more than a net $13 billion last year.

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