Commodity Research

Date : 13.12.2010


NEWS HEADLINES

Date:13.12.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Spices: Pepper futures may see some recovery as domestic demand for winter is yet to pick up, while arrival of the new pepper is awaited.Unfavourable weather in the growing areas of Kerala’s southern districts, form where arrivals normally begin, has delayed harvesting. Indian parity on Saturday came down to $4,9755,000 a tonne (c & f) making it competitive. Lower acreage of about 9% in Andhra Pradesh may continue to support chilli futures. Turmeric futures may remain sideways till the fresh crop arrives the spot markets & investors find a clear price direction. Extended buying on reports of crop damage may support the prices. Jeera futures may recover some losses reacting positive to the reports that Unseasonal rains and cloudy weather has slashed jeera sowing in India’s western state of Gujarat, the country’sbiggest producing region, by 25.2 percent, data showed on Friday.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Bullions: In bullion counter gold and silver can trade on positive note tracking positive overseas cues. The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust holdings fell to 1,289 tonnes by Dec 10.The holdings hit a record at 1,320 tonnes on June 29.Ratio of gold to silver steadied after dropping as low as 46.6 last week, near a two year channel support line and the lows of 2008 and1999.It means that this ratio can bounce from these levels and hence gold may out perform silver in medium term.

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Date:03.11.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Other commodities: Chana futures may trade sideways taking support at 2395 levels on lack luster demand. A decline in both price and open interest indicates liquidation by discouraged traders with long positions. As long as this trend continues, it is a bearish sign. Guar seed futures may continue to rise & likely to touch 2160 levels. Arrival pressure which is gradually increasing may limit the upside. The quality issue in the new crop arrivals may continue to provide cushion to prices. Mentha oil futures may remain steady on good demand from menthol flakes manufacturers. Marginal profit booking is expected at such high levels, ahead of long weekend.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Energy: Crude oil futures may also extend its previous session gains as weak dollar index is supporting prices. U.S. crude inventories fell unexpectedly last week, while product stocks also fell more than forecast, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday. Crude inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels in the week through Oct. 29, compared with expectations for a 1.2 million barrel build. Distillate stocks fell 4.7 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations for a 1.1 million barrel draw.

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Date:02.11.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Oilseeds: Arrivals of soybean have dropped somewhat in Madhya Pradesh which reportedly supported the prices. Plants as well as stockists are buying actively. Soybean offered at Rs 1,700- 2,125 per 100 kg in Madhya Pradesh and at Rs 1,700-2,300 per 100 kg in Maharashtra. Soybean futures may trade sideways and mustard futures may take support at 560 levels & rise on short covering. U.S. soybean futures inched lower, pulling back from earlier gains on a rebound in the U.S. dollar and improved South American crop weather.Traders took a cautious ahead of this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve actions. Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended just off a fresh 27-month high at 1.2% to MYR 3,098/ton. Despite bullish indicators, palm oil prices may take a breather, as the weak export data point to higher end-month inventory levels.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Energy: Crude oil may trade on firm note tracking firm overseas cues. U.S. crude futures extended gains on Tuesday, drawing support from comments by Saudi Arabia about consumers tolerating oil prices as high as $90 a barrel and expectations that further monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve this week could spur more dollar weakness.

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Date:01.11.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Other commodities: Chana futures is expected to trade above 2370 support levels in today’ session. Weak sentiments prevailed across major spot markets of Chana due to subdued trading activity. Reports of increased imports of pulses during April to September 2010 are pressurizing chana prices. Guarseed futures may continue to see some selling pressure amid higher supply. In September 2010, Guar seed output was estimated at around 150 lakh bags (according to a government official). However, according to the market sources, there are reports of crop damage in some parts of Haryana and Rajasthan which may lower the output slightly, by 10-15 lakh bags. The rally in mentha oil futures may witness some pause as the investors may take a wait & watch stance for buying the commodity at such high levels.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Base Metals: Base metals pack can also see some marginal short covering after better than expected PMI data from China today. Base metals were seen firm on Monday, with support likely from a softer dollar, which lost 0.4 percent against a currency basket, ahead of this week’s pivotal Federal Reserve meeting. Market attention is fixed on the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is expected to announce another round of quantitative easing — buying bonds to inject cash into the market.

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Date:30.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Spices: Pepper futures may trade sideways taking support at 20300 levels as erratic rainfall in the pepper growing areas this year is reportedly to delay the arrival of new crop by 15 to 20 days. Hence, from the usual time of arrival in December, it may hit the markets in January. This factor coupled with the decreasing stocks is aiding the prices to move up. Indian parity in the international market is at $4,850-4,875 a tonne (c&f) almost competitive with other origins. Turmeric futures may trade above 12700 levels on account of sustained demand & better offtakes from the spot markets. Any revival of demand in good quantity may provide support to the prices. Jeera futures may seesome bounce back on short covering. Sideways movement of rupee is capping the export enquiries as the market lack the clarity of direction. Chilli futures may continue to post marginal gains on reports of lower acreage this season. However the large carry-over stocks may keep the upside capped at 5000 levels.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Metal section is expected to trade sideways in today’s session amid weekend closing. U.S. gold ended more than 1 percent higher on Friday, setting a 10-day high on a lower dollar and as investors bought ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, at which the central bank is expected to discuss further monetary stimulus. Market concerns rose over suspicious packages in Britain and Dubai after U.S. and British security officials searched Parcel Service cargo flights. U.S. data on Friday showed third-quarter economic growth edged up as expected, but not enough to reduce unemployment. Investors still believe the Fed will resume government debt purchases in a second round of quantitative easing to boost the sluggish economy. Copper futures ended lower on Friday, extending a retreat from 27-month peaks hit this week, as GDP data came in as expected and investors squared positions before the Federal Reserve meets next week. In energy counter U.S. crude oil futures settled nearly 1 percent lower on Friday, after data showed that U.S. third quarter economic growth, though edging up as expected, was still anemic, stoking fresh worries about oil demand.

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Date:28.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Other commodities: Chana futures may trade sideways as a decline in both price and open interest indicates liquidation by discouraged traders with long positions. As long as this trend continues, it is a bearish sign. Moreover weakness in other pulses like Tur & Urad is adding bearishness to the counter. Desi tur remained weak between Rs 25-50 per quintal at many interior mandis of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat in the absence of buying support from millers and traders. Pulses remained steady in many interior markets of Maharashtra and Karnataka on quiet trading activities. Guar seed may see a downside on account of arrival pressure over the counter. The downside may be capped as demand is good from exporters but arrivals have also increased. Mentha oil futures may recover from its yesterday loss on improved buying activities along with an equally strong spot market.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Base metals: Base metals are expected to open with negative impression tracking losses mad in Shanghai and London markets. Copper closed down in a sharp reversal from 27-month peaks on Wednesday, as buyer interest faded on a stronger dollar and speculation that fresh monetary easing in the United States would not be as pronounced as previously thought. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected next week to discuss whether to embark on a new round of government debt purchases, or quantitative easing, to boost the sluggish U.S. economy.

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Date:27.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Spices: Pepper futures may trade higher as rupee commenced slightly lower on Tuesday, in line with regional peers that started weaker tracking a gaining US dollar overseas. The trend is bullish on strong buying support due to increasing demand from domestic market and some from exporters. At the same time, availability is tight in all the origins. In India, pepper is mainly available on the exchange platform and the outstanding position indicates of a tight situation. Turmeric futures may face resistance at 12650 levels. There is absolutely nodemand for turmeric from other States. Demand in the local markets was also poor. Jeera futures may remain stable as there are lower stocks of jeera in the domestic market till the fresh arrivals expected in the month of March. Chilli futures may trade sideways above 4580 levels. Yesterday, spot red chilli traded bullish in the benchmark Guntur mandi of Andhra Pradesh. At present, 32-33 lakh bags of red chilli stock is held in Guntur cold storages.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Energy: In energy counter crude may witness some profit booking as bounce back in dollar index can limit the upside in prices. U.S. crude inventories jumped by 6.4 million barrels in the week to Oct. 22, the American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday, more than six times the forecast gain of 1.1 million in a Reuters poll and despite an increase in refinery utilisation. Distillate inventory statistics were also bearish, showing an increase of 818,000 barrels, compared to expectations for a drop of 1.5 million barrels. But gasoline posted a surprise drop of 1.8 million barrels, compared to a projected 200,000 barrel gain.

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Date:26.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Other commodities: The downside guar seed futures may remain intact in absence of fresh fundamental triggers in the market. Guar seed production is expected to be around 70-80 lakh bags this year on higher acreage. Carry-forward stock of guar seed and guar gum is estimated at 2 lakh tons. Chana futures may remain range bound between 2400-2420 with persisting demand from the retailers and millers who were actively buying. Farmers are busy in harvesting and selling of soybean so chana arrivals dipped in the major markets indicating that prices might gain. Mentha oil futures may strike further high as low arrivals is supporting the mandi rates.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Base metals: Base metals may also remain in range tracking choppy movement in dollar index and mixed fundamentals. The price of copper rose on Monday above $8,500 a tonne for the first time since the fall of Lehman Brothers, as the sliding dollar coincided with buoyant investment demand. The market for the red metal, a crucial cog in the global economy as it is widely used in manufacturing, has been in relentlessly bullish mode for several weeks as demand is expected to outstrip supply this year and next.

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Date:25.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Spices: Cardamom may tumble to lower levels on selling interest. Arrival pressures at spot market have pulled down the prices. Prices and volume have gone down while open interest has increased. It is a good indication that a sharp rally may happen which will create a sell point for downtrend. Jeera futures may continue to take support at 12900 levels & rebound from the current levels. Lukewarm export demand & sideways movement of rupee is helping to cushion the prices. There are lower stocks of jeera in the domestic market till the fresh arrivals expected in the month of March. Pepper prices are expected to make a U-shaped recovery in the price movement as availability is tight in all the origins. In India, pepper is mainly available on the exchange platform and the outstanding position indicates of a tight situation. Indian parity in the international market was at $4,600 a tonne (c&f) and may remain competitive. Brazil was reportedly active with some trading taking place for B 1 at $4,050-4,100 (f.o.b.). Turmeric futures may face some resistance near 12600 levels. Stabilized open interest & volumes in trading depict that downside is limited.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Energy:Oil rose on Monday as the dollar weakened ahead of a speech by Fed chief Ben Bernanke, where he could outline details of an expected new round of U.S. monetary stimulus, after G20 finance ministers agreed to shun competitive currency devaluations. Market players were keenly waiting to see if Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke would indicate how much Treasury bonds the U.S. central bank is likely buy, in a highly anticipated move to pump more money to shore up a faltering economy. Bernanke is due to speak at a conference. At a meeting in South Korea over the weekend, G20 finance ministers recognized the quickening shift in economic power away from Western industrial nations by striking a surprise deal to give emerging nations a bigger voice in the International Monetary Fund.

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Date:23.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Other commodities: Chana futures may see a downside of 2380 levels on account of profit booking with bearish scenario in the spot market due to weak demand and ample supply. The weak trend in other pulses is also compelling the futures counter to trade downside.Guar seed futures may remain stable for delayed arrivals of the new crop & fall in arrival in the mandis—thus perking up the price for the commodity. Some concerns over crop quality are there and the arrivals would start picking up from next week onwards. Exporters are reportedly waiting for more corrections for initiating fresh queries. Mentha oil futures trading at all time high, may witness some marginal profit booking before the weekend. However, the overall trend is still upside due to strong buying fueled by receding arrivals in major mandies of Uttar Pradesh accompanied with follows up buying.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Base metals: Base metal pack may trade with sideways bias after yesterday mixed movement except lead and zinc which have defied the weakness in the entire pack. The shutdown this week of a major zinc smelter in southern China, apparently stemming from toxic pollution concerns, reverberated through world metals markets, high lighting how Beijing’s nascent efforts to improve its environmental record may mean higher global prices. China’s third-largest zinc producer, Shenzhen Zhongj in Lingnan Nonfemet Co., said in a statement to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on Friday that it had stopped production of lead and zinc at a smelter in Shaoguan, Guangdong province,confirming market rumors.

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Date:22.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Spices: Turmeric futures may witness some marginal short covering. Sturdy crop progress of turmeric in the current season & crop growth in growing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu which have entered into corm development stage in most of the areas may cap the upside. Jeera futures may continue to take its crucial support at 12900 levels & trade sideways. Lack of supplies and dwindling stocks may keep the downside restricted. Pepper futures may remain above 18900 levels with speculative buying supported by short covering. Selling pressure from other directions is totally absent. In Kochi, Black pepper ungarbled is sold at Rs 18,500 per quintal,MG-1 at Rs 19,000 a quintal. In the international market, Indian black pepper is offered at USD 4,550-4,650 a ton (c&f). Cardamom prices may tumble further in futures and spot markets on strong arrivals and on the reports that Saudi Arabia made purchase from the Guatemala.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Bullion: Bullion counter is expected to open on flat note and may remain under pressure in today’s session. International gold bounced on Friday on bargain hunting by jewellers after losing 1.5 percent in the previous session, but was heading for its biggest weekly fall since July as the dollar firmed ahead of a G20 finance ministers meeting. Gold was about 4 percent below a lifetime high around $1,387 an ounce hit last week, losing its appeal as an alternative investment as the dollar regained strength despite anticipation of further monetary easing by the U.S. central bank.

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Date:21.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Oilseeds: Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange rallied Wednesday & ended MYR65 higher at MYR2,984 a metric ton, its highest closing level since July 31, 2008., shrugging off earlier losses on late buying interest and improved export demand. US soybean futures soared, propelling to a new 14-month high on strong export demand and a broader rebound in commodities. CBOT soybean futures for Nov delivery, the most active contract rose 32c or 2.7% to $12.12. “Continued strong global soybean consumption coupled with a weaker U.S. dollar served as rallying points to push values to higher levels. Soybean futures at NCDEX may get strength from the global markets to break the resistance at 2250 levels, supported by good amount of crushing at plants.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Base metals: Base metals may open on positive note and can extend gains in later session as international markets are giving positive cues to the metal pack. Copper prices were steady on Thursday, as investors were poised for economic data out of China showing stronger-than-expected growth, following Beijing’s surprise rate hike earlier this week. China’s economic growth slowed in the third quarter but was a touch stronger than expected. Consumer inflation hit a 23-month high of 3.6 percent in September, but was in line with market expectations.

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Date:20.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Other commodities: Guar seed futures may see some recovery above 2080 levels on account of lower level buying. Reports of delayed arrivals of the new crop due to late sowing this year could also support the rates. Mentha oil futures is expected to remain above 980 levels on expectation of further pickup in domestic and export demand at lower levels. Chana futures are expected to remain sideways as MSP decision for Chana to Rs.2100 per quintal is yet awaited. Inventory of Chana at NCDEX warehouses marginally increased by 5 tons to 35460 tons as on 16th October.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Bullion: Bullion counter is expected to remain on weaker path tracking bounce back in the greenback yesterday however some short covering can be seen at lower levels. Gold can test the key support of 19400 and silver 35000 in near term. Policy changes in the United States are likely to remain the most closely watched factor in the market.

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Date:18.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Other commodities: Chana futures may rise further on continued buying spree from enthusiastic demand from mills. Prices are rising and the volume and open interest are both up, the market is decidedly strong. Guar futures may remain downside being as the buying sentiments are being hampered by the reports of record production of 1.51 million tonnes this year & also stronger rupee hitting the export demand of guargum. Mentha oil may once again post gains & touch the levels of 1000 due to lower level buying & higher demand from menthol industry.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Bullion: Bullion counter is expected to open on negative note taking cues from weak international markets. International gold fell nearly one percent on Monday, weighed down by a rebound in the dollar, after Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke on Friday gave few detailsof the much-anticipated easing move being weighed by the central bank. The dollar rose about half a percent against a basket of currencies on Monday, after rising off a 10-month low late last week, and technical indicators pointed to the possibility of a further short covering rebound.

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Date:16.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Spices: Pepper futures may continue to rule steady above 18000 levels with decent buying interest amid limited availability. Availability of pepper is, in fact, confined to the exchange platform. Indian parity in the international market moving up to $4,400 – $4,450 a tonne (cost & freight) as the rupee was strong against the dollar, is capping the gains. Jeera futures may continue to trade above its crucial support at 12800 levels. Rains in Gujarat over last few months have created possibilities of better sowing this year and created a bearish sentiment for some time. Turmeric futures may witness a downside on account of profit booking & reports of higher acreage. As per the latest report from Agriculture Dept., Andhra Pradesh, sowing under the commodity has spurted upto 102% this year. Cardamom may continue to trade within its consolidated range. Upcountry buyers were covering, albeit not aggressively. They were hesitant to buy from the declining market. The peak period of the harvesting in the current season is about to end and the third round of picking will commence by the month-end.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Steady moves are expected to remain in metal market amid weekend session. U.S. gold futures ended lower on Friday, after a two-day record-setting rally, as investors took profits on a dollar bounce and as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke offered few new details on further economic stimulus. Bernanke delivered his most explicit signal yet that the U.S. central bank is likely to adopt easier monetary policy as soon as its next meeting in November. But he failed to offer the details that some gold investors are craving to sustain the rally. In basemetals U.S. copper futures ended up for a fifth consecutive weekly gain on Friday, with a spike in regional manufacturing activity helping to keep prices buoyed near 27-month highs, even in the face of a firmer dollar. U.S. crude oil futures prices fell on Friday in choppy trading asthe dollar bounced, pressuring oil, and as November crude oil options approached their expiration at the end of the session. Crude prices finished lower on the week, the first lower finish in four weeks.

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Date:15.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Oilseeds: U.S. soybean futures climbed, propelled by strong export demand and the supportive influence of a weaker U.S. dollar. CBOT Nov soybeans ended 12c or 1% higher at $11.88 1/2 a bushel. Consistent export demand, reflective of a fresh sales announcement to China coupled with a stronger-than expected crush pace generated fundamental price support. Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended mostly lower Thursday, easing from multi-year highs on expectations of lower half-month export numbers.Oilseeds may continue to remain under pressure e upper side may be capped with limiting factors like India’s edible oil import forecast for MY 2010/11 is revised slightly higher at 87 lakh tonnes, estimation by Rajasthan’s farm department, that mustard crop was expected to be sown on 3.2 million hectares in 2010 from 2.2 million hectares in 2009.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Bullions: Bullion counter may open on firm note in today’s session. International gold held steady on Friday, pausing in its record-breaking rally, as the dollar rebounded from a 10-month low, but expectations of a Federal Reserve easing move hardened after disappointing jobless data, supporting bullion. Both SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Silver Trust experienced hefty gains in holdings after the metals continued to hit new highs, showing increased interest from investors. The weak job market data from the United States added to the expectation that the Federal Reserve would pump more money into the economy to stimulate growth. New jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week.

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Date:13.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Other commodities : Chana futures may remain sideways & trade in tight range of 2245-2260. On the other hand, prices of pulse seeds continued to remain either steady or edged slightly lower in the spot because of its subdued demand at mill-level. Guar futures trade may remain on downside in range of 1950-2000 levels. Fresh arrivals in Haryana and Rajasthan coupled with strong production estimates of the current year may continue to shave off the price movement. Mentha oil futures may remain upside, facing resistance at 980 levels. The spot prices at Chandausi mandi were seen at Rs 1020 per kg.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Base Metals: Base metal may also travel towards north in today’s session tracking weak dollar index. Copper prices in London and NewYork extended gains on Wednesday to touch 27-month highs, while Shanghai zinc futures hit their highest since April, buoyed by a 0.3 percent fall in the dollar and expectations of U.S. stimulus. LME aluminium, zinc and lead all touched their highest since April in the previous session after the minutes of the Sept. 21 meeting of the Federal Reserve offered the clearest signal yet that the Fed would injectmore cash into the market.

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Date:12.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Other commodities: Chana futures may trade in range of 2265-2275 amid spill over impact of other weaker pulses prices. The total area under pulses was seen at 115.93 lakh hectares compared to last year’s coverage of 97.66 lakh hectares. This is 18.27 hectares more area compared to last year and 11.7 lakh hectares. This was mainly due to strong gains in Urad and Tur. Guar futures may see some slight recovery above 2000-1980 support levels and the rise on the greenback of short covering. However, fresh arrivals in Haryana and Rajasthan coupled with strong production estimates of the current year may cap the gains. Wheat futures may also recoup on account ofgains in the CBOT grain futures. Wheat is continuing to follow corn, albeit with corn outperforming.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Base Metals: Base metals pack to remain choppy with weak bias tracking choppy movement in SHFE. London copper edged lower on Tuesday, extending a small loss in the previous session, as expectations of additional Federal Reserve stimulus to prop up growth viedwith fears prices are technically over bought. Meanwhile UK-based ETF Securities said it would introduce physical exchange-traded products for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin, nickel and a basket of the six major base metals. This will also give another tool for investors to invest in base metals.

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Date:11.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Other commodities: Kapaskhali futures may continue to move in the green zone posting moderate gains tracking rising cotton prices.Indian textile commissioner’s office received applications to register exports of 3.48 million cotton bales until Friday evening, data on theTextile Commissioner’s website showed. Of this, the government has registered exports of 753,542 bales. Chana futures may test the levelsof 2300 mainly because of increased demand from the millers. Potato prices may witness some correction tracking release of stocks fromcold storages. The State government has instead decided to opt for direct selling by various agencies to potato traders and cold storagesacross the State at a pre-determined price,

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Base Metals: Copper futures may also extend gains along with other base metals, tracking strong overseas leads, though a strong rupee could limit the upside. Copper rallied to a more than two-year peak above $3.80 per lb in New York futures trade on Friday, after anunexpected drop in U.S. non-farm payrolls upped the chances of a faster stimulus response from the Federal Reserve.

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Date:09.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Oilseeds: Soybean futures may trade sideways taking support at 2000 levels. Steady arrivals may cap the upside movement. U.S. soybeanfutures soared on indications of tighter supplies, as U.S. Department of Agriculture surprisingly viewed soybean yield potential to be lowerthan previous forecasts, while also lowering its estimate for soybean ending stocks. This week’s U.S export sales were at the high end ofexpectations for soybeans, in line with expectations for meal. Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange fell from highs afterrallying to MYR2,808 a metric ton in the morning session, the highest since August last year, due to speculative buying interest and someinvestors scrambling to cover shorts. However, the ringgit’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar will likely keep some buying interest alive.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Steady trend is expected to prevail in metal market today ahead of weekend closing. U.S. gold futures ended nearly 1percent higher on Friday following a sharp retreat in the previous session, as a disappointing non farm payrolls report reinforced expected U.S. monetary easing. U.S. Labor Department report showed the U.S. economy shed jobs in September for a fourth straight month as government payrolls fell and private hiring slowed. Weak jobs data should push the Fed toward trying to stimulate the economy through purchases of government debt, or quantitative easing. Gold has rallied about 10percent since the end of August. It hit a record high on Thursday of $1,364.60 an ounce on a spot basis before finishinglower for the day. The precious metal is viewed as a hedge against inflation and dollar depreciation. Crude oil futures rose onFriday as the dollar weakened due to an unexpected dip in U.S. jobs, further raising expectations of easier money policiesfrom the Federal Reserve to help lift the struggling economy. U.S. equities gained, bolstered by the likely Fed action, andgasoline futures rallied. Both aided crude’s rebound from Thursday’s losses.

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Date:08.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Oilseeds: Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange rose as much as 2.1% Thursday on speculative buying and short covering amid an improved demand outlook and a weak production forecast for 2010. This would be the third consecutive year of zero output growth for Malaysia, the world’s second-largest palm oil producer after Indonesia. U.S. soybean futures ended higher, finding traction, as traders evened positions ahead of Friday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture crop reports. The market despite climbing, held within recent trading ranges, as the market braced for key government crop and  supply/demand updates from USDA Friday morning. On the domestic scenario, soybean futures may continue to trade in safer zone amid the buying spree from the crushing plants ahead of soymeal demand f
Japan. India’s oil meal exports in September jumped 53% to 354,252 metric tons from 231,297 tons a year earlier because of higher soy meal shipments as put by the Solvent Extractors.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Bullions: Bullion counter may open on negative note in today’s session and can trade sideways in later part of the day. However international gold steady on Friday, as the U.S. dollar rebounded after upbeat U.S. jobless claims data on Thursday, after investors await key employment figures out of the U.S. later in the day. New U.S. jobless claims hit a near three-month low last week, showing some improvement in the labour market, but the data is not strong enough to keep the Federal Reserve from easing monetary further. China’s financial markets reopen after a week-long holiday. Spot gold has risen nearly two percent during China’s absence. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust shed more than one percent to 1,288.542 tonnes, its sharpest loss since April 2009.

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Date:07.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Oilseeds: Soybean futures are expected to take support at 1980 levels. Oilmeal exports in the first half of the current financial year that began in April also rose to 1.4 million tonnes compared with 1.2 million tonnes a year ago. As per the latest figures, India’s oilmeal exports rose 53 percent to 354,252 tonnes in September from 231,297 tonnes a year ago. The nation may drive-in international buyers as long as India is $20 a tonne cheaper than other origins. U.S. soybean futures stumbled, backpedaling in the absence of fresh supportive news to attract buyers following Tuesday’s strong price performance. Selling pressure emerged from fears the government will raise soybean export projections and lower ending stocks after a record export buying spree by China in September. Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended higher Wednesday due to speculative buying interest as investors took cues from a rise in soyoil and crude oil prices.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Bullions: Bullion counter may remain on firm note tracking strong cues from international markets .Gold is now in uncharted territories and can head towards $1365 in COMEX and 19700 in MCX. Silver has also outperformed gold recently and it can test the levels of Rs 35000 in near term. Devaluation of the dollar is going to lead to inflationary times and decreasing purchasing power..

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Date:06.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Other commodities: Chana futures may face a resistance near 2300 levels. The counter witnessing lower volumes since last four sessions, shows that the investors are keeping a word of caution entering to the trade. Guar futures may continue to take support at 2000 levels. The prices may see some upward trend as arrivals are delayed by about 15 days. Wheat futures are seen in a narrow range with negative bias on prospects of record output and the government’s decision to continue export curbs. Mentha oil futures may trade higher upside for 885 levels based on account of aggressive buying from lower levels. Major mandies of Uttar Pradesh such as Sambhal and Chandausi have witnessed the daily average arrivals of around 550 drums.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Base Metals: Base metal pack may also get underpinned taking cues from international markets. London copper rose 1 percent on Wednesday to its highest in over two years, while tin hit a contract high and other metals jumped, on expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve monetary easing supply worries in copper and tin support sentiment, and commodities are attracting the attention of funds keen to put cheap cash to work. Equities extended gains and the dollar held near lows after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly cut  interest rates on Tuesday, fueling speculation that other governments will take additional action and flood global economies with cheap money..

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Date:05.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Other commodities: Chana futures may trade above 2290 taking positive cues for festive buying & ignoring the fundamental of higheracreage this kharif season. Guar seed futures may trade sideways as the investors seem to be skeptical about the price direction onaccount of arrivals which may hit the market in days to come. Minor damages to guar crop in some growing areas are supporting the prices.Mentha oil futures may witness some profit booking at higher levels. Open-interest numbers flattening shows a warning sign of animpending top. Declining volumes of trade in wheat futures, amid lack of fresh cues depict a weak tone & a nominal downward movement.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Base Metals: Base metal pack may also witness some downward pressure as investors reduced some risk as the dollar firmed andconcerns about the financial stability of some euro zone banks resurfaced. On London Metal Exchange (LME), benchmark copper forthree-month delivery ended at $8,064 a tonne from a close of $8,095 on Friday, when it hit a 26-month peak of $8,178. Mixed economicdata from the United States did little to alter the mildly negative tone Monday. Pending sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose to fourmonthhigh, while new orders received by U.S. factories fell by 0.5 percent in August. Copper rose on Friday after strong manufacturingdata from China reinforced a healthier demand outlook from the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals.

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Date:04.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Oilseeds:Soybean futures are likely to feel the continued pressure of higher yields this season. The soybean yield is likely to rise to 1,089kilograms per hectare in 2010 from 1,006 kg/hectare last year. In Rajasthan, higher production is attributed to sturdy gains in productivity by25% to 1106 kgs per hectares. The edible section may witness some less demand as Indian government has extended a ban on exports ofvegetable oils until Sept. 30, 2011 to ensure steady domestic supplies at domestic market. Government allows edible oil exports only inbranded consumer packs of up to 5 kg, with a ceiling of 10,000 tonnes. U.S. soybean futures tumbled Friday, sliding to two-week lows asharvest pressure. Weather forecasts calling for clear skies for the next week across the heart of the Midwest are expected to produce asignificant acceleration in soybean harvesting.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Energy:Crude oil may trade with upside bias and can extend its previous session gains as U.S. crude futures stood steady above $81,near their highest levels in almost two months on Monday, helped as the dollar stayed near a six-month low against the euro. The strengthof that momentum will be tested this week by a round of economic data, including the much-watched non-farm payrolls report, as well asthe start of third-quarter earnings season.

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Date:01.10.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Oilseeds:Crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives rose & ended MYR32 higher at MYR2,730 a metric ton, boosted by improved September export data and a rally in e-CBOT soyoil. Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s September palm oil exports at 1.48 million tons, up 21% on month. U.S. soy bean futures ended higher, as strong demand reflective of higher than expected weekly export sales helped futures rebound from early price weakness. Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans, the most-active contract ended 7 3/4 cents or 0.7% higher at $11.06 3/4. On the domestic scenario the seasonal harvest pressure is expected to build a pressure on soybean futures. India’s soybean output in 2010 is likely to rise 4.2% to 10.13 million metric tons as good rains are expected to increase the yield. The soybean yield is likely to rise to 1,089 kilograms per hectare in 2010 from 1,006 kg/hectare last year.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Energy:Crude oil futures may witness see saw moves in today’s session as international prices are hovering around $80 mark on NYMEX division. However local prices may remain under cap amid stronger rupee. U.S. crude futures stood little changed near a seven-month high on Friday, after posting a rise of almost 3 percent a day earlier as lower U.S. jobless claims stoked optimism for economic recovery in the world’s top oil consumer.

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Date:30.09.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Oilseeds:Crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives fell by MYR39 or 1.4% lower at MYR2,698 a metric ton Wednesday asinvestors took cues from declines on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and CBOT soyoil to book profits. Soybean futures are expected totake support at 2000 levels. A lower level buying along with some short covering can be witnessed in today’s session. A weak global cuealong with steady arrivals at the cash markets is capping the upside. Seasonal harvest pressure and end-of the month and quarter positionevening combined to pressure U.S. soybean futures for the second consecutive day. Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans, themost-active contract ended 11 cents or 1.0% lower at $10.99. Global vegetable oil markets fell on Wednesday after China said it would sellvegetable oil reserves and as an improving outlook for soy crops for crushing in South America depressed the market.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Energy:In energy counter crude oil is likely to open on flat note and may trade sideways tailing mixed fundamentals. U.S. crude futures stood little changed on Thursday to hold a gain of more than 2 percent from a day earlier, helped by data showing a drop in U.S. crude and product inventories. A tightening in product stockpiles — just as U.S. refiners were stepping up seasonal maintenance and with more than a month to go before the hurricane season winds down — prompted traders to bid up prices. U.S. crude stocks fell 475,000 barrels last week,data from the Energy Information Administration showed, slightly wider than a decline of 300,000 barrels in a Reuter’s poll.

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Date:29.09.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Oilseeds:Crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange were little changed, ended MYR2 higher at MYR2,737 ametric ton as investors appeared content to consolidate recent gains. Forecasts for a higher production period during October-Novemberand profit taking on the Dalian Commodity Exchange kept a lid on prices. The influx of newly harvested 2010 U.S. crops and the absence ofany fresh supportive fundamental news sent U.S. soybean futures prices backpedaling. Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans, themost-active contract ended 18 1/2 cents or 1.6% lower at $11.28 1/2. The domestic market lacked any bullish spark to promote upwardprice movement, as investors are feeling more skeptical about the price direction with a soybean harvest entering the cash pipeline. India’sOilseeds production in the kharif season is likely to be 17.27 million tonnes as against 15.66 million tonnes last season.Refined Soya Oilfutures may extend the loss on heavy selling amid weak domestic fundamentals. Higher production estimation, higher stocks and importsare pressuring the prices.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Energy:In energy counter crude oil may trade with bullish bias but a stronger rupee can cap the upside in prices. Oil rose on Wednesdayafter an industry report showed crude and winter fuel stockpiles declined last week in top-consumer the United States, reducing a surplusthat has weighed on market sentiment for months. U.S. inventories of distillates, a fuel category that includes heating oil and diesel,unexpectedly dropped by 2.8 million barrels in the week to Sept. 24, pulling stockpiles 3.5 million barrels below year-ago levels, theAmerican Petroleum Institute (API) reported late on Tuesday.

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Date:28.09.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Other commodities:Guar futures may take support at 2020 levels. The upside is being capped amid higher production this year, with rainssupporting the crop growth. Cumulative rains till Sept. 15 in the western and eastern wings of Rajasthan were 72 and 5 percent respectivelyhigher than normal, the weather office data showed. Chana futures may rise higher to 2300 levels, as the arrivals have been affected,farmers becoming wary of sending their produce in view of the scheduled Allahabad High Court verdict on Ayodhya. Mentha oil futures maytrade sideways facing resistance at 855 levels. As per market sources, major mandies of Uttar Pradesh such as Sambhal and Chandausihave witnessed the daily average arrivals of around 550 drums while the spot prices at Chandausi mandi were seen at Rs 954 per kg, downRs 6 from previous day.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Base Metals:Base metals counter can remain subdued as profit booking can lead to more fall from current levels. Shanghai copperopened steady today supported by supply tightness, as London copper hovers below the psychologically important $8,000 level. Creditagency Moody’s slashed some debt ratings on Anglo Irish Bank on Monday, citing a risk Dublin might default on lower-grade loans issuedby the nationalized banker, knocking the euro off a five-month high against the U.S. dollar. Investors are eyeing data, including U.S.consumer confidence for September, purchasing managers indexes from a number of countries including the U.S. and China, due thisweek to gauge the health of the global economy. Lead and zinc have witnessed sharper correction as compared to other base metalsrecently.

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Date:27.09.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Oilseeds:Malaysia’s palm oil stocks are likely to be below 2 million tonnes by the end of this year. Bullish fundamental factors may continueto support domestic oilseeds prices. Traders have signed contracts for 150,000 tons to 200,000 tons with buyers in Vietnam and SouthKorea for delivery in the December quarter. Soybean meal, mixed with poultry feed as a form of protein to aid birds’ growth, is being offeredat about $370 a ton on a free-on-board basis at Indian ports, Soyoil stocks are seen declining to 3.31 billion pounds in the report, down from3.55 billion the previous month. In the NOPA report, soyoil stocks saw a 207.9 million-pound decrease in stocks. High temperature duringthe maturity stage of soybeans has witnessed some yield loss in some of the major states such as Madhya Pradesh while excess rainfallduring the pollination stage has delayed the crop formation in Maharashtra.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Energy:Crude oil counter may also trade on firm note as international crude is heading toward the key resistance level of $78 and Rs3600 in MCX. The latest data from the U.S. offered a glimpse of hope on the economic recovery, showing that new orders for a widerange of long-lasting U.S. manufacturing goods rose in August and business spending plans rebounded strongly.

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Date:25.09.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Other commodities:Guarseed futures may remain stable above 2000 levels. The upside is being capped by the reports that production isexpected to rise to 1.51 million tonnes in 2010/11. Yield is expected to rise to 545 kg per hectare this year against 78 kg in 2009. The crop ison good condition and there were no reports of any loss due to diseases till date. The decent buying done by traders for stocking thecommodity for festive season may supported the chana prices in futures trading. Arrivals in the Kacchi mandi were almost nil, while theChawni mandi received a mere 47 bags of desi chana, whose mandi price was quoted at Rs 1,861-2,200 a quintal. Wheat futures mayremain steady above 1220 levels on some export hopes of grains to Bangladesh. Mentha oil at an yearly high may trade further high onaggressive buying.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Base Metals:Metal section is likely to trade with sideways bias amid weekend closing. In base metal section U.S. copperfutures charged to a new five-month top above $3.60 per lb on Friday, with the bullish prospect of a cheap dollar andimproved demand outlook through the end of the year powering the recent price momentum.

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Date:24.09.10

DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Spices:The profit booking scenario may continue in pepper futures. The counter may however trade sideways taking minor support at19000 levels. Flattening open interest depicts the situation that the investors are skeptical about the price direction & opting for a “ wait &watch” attitude. Chilli futures may trade in a narrow bearish range of 4750-4800 levels. The upside is being capped with higher acreage inAndhra Pradesh. Turmeric futures may continue to post marginal gains facing resistance at 13800 levels. The buying spree in the countermay remain firm tracking firm spot markets. In the Regulated Market Committee, the finger variety was sold at Rs 14,169–14,829 and theroot variety was sold at Rs 14,019–14,599 a quintal. The sales were very high with 1,271 bags of the total 1,461 bags that arrived beingsold. Cardamom prices may continue to trade at lower levels. Total arrivals during the current season, from August 1 to September 20, 2010stood at 1,311 tonnes. Of this, 1,304 tonnes of cardamom were sold.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Bullions: Bullion prices can trade sideways with mixed sentiments as some profit booking at higher levels can be seen as it is about tocross the magical figure of $1300 in COMEX. Meanwhile strong local currency has curtailed the upside in gold on domestic bourses tosome extent. Yesterday U.S. gold futures ended higher, rallying to near $1,300 an ounce after disappointing U.S. jobless claims andhousing data triggered safe-haven demand into the metal. Gold market is responding to uncertainty, and any weak economic news is abull signal to gold. If our domestic currency weakens it will give support to the gold prices.

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Date: 23.09.10

DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Spices: Pepper futures may give a dip downside towards 19200 levels & later recover on short covering. Indian parity in the international market remained nearly steady at $4,525-$4,550 a tonne (c&f). On the spot markets, Interstate traders were buying pepper from Idukki and Wayanad and small quantities were traded. The rally in turmeric futures may slow down facing a resistance at 13600 levels. In the Regulated Market Committee, the finger variety was sold at Rs 14,169–14,829 and the root variety was sold at Rs 14,019–14,599 a quintal. The sales were very high with 1,271 bags of the total 1,461 bags that arrived being sold. Further, there is very heavy demand from the traders, as they are getting a number of orders for the spice from all over the country. Chilli futures may face resistance at 4900 levels. The sowing progress at Andhra Pradesh as on date is almost complete by 86% at 95,754 lakh hectares as compared to 61% normal sowing during this time.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Bullions: Bullion prices can once again get underpinned today as international prices are hovering around their highs. However stronger rupee can limit the upside in prices up to some extent. International gold inched higher on Thursday in electronic trading after touching record highs for the fifth consecutive session, and silver hit a 2-½ year peak, as economic uncertainties boosted investor appeal for these safe-haven assets. Holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed exchanged-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust were unchanged at 1,304.168 tonnes.

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Date:22.09.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Spices: This unhealthy price trend of pepper often makes it difficult for exporters to make any commitments to their potential overseas. Prices are declining and the open interest is rising, this indicates that new short positions are being opened. As long as this process continues it is a bearish factor. Turmeric futures may test the levels of 13500 in today session. In the regulated market, the finger variety was sold at Rs 13,765-14,319 a quintal, and the root variety Rs 13,609–14,089. This is because of the good demand from other States, especially from the North. Chilli futures may face some resistance at 4850 levels. Prices are rising and open interest is increasing at a rate faster, this is a bullish sign. More participants are entering the market, involving additional buying, and any purchases are generally aggressive in nature. Cardamom futures may remain sideways in range of 1050-1080. Total arrivals during the current season, from August 1 to September 20, 2010 stood at 1,311 tonnes. Of this, 1,304 tonnes of cardamom were sold. The weather conditions, of late, have been good in the cardamom growing areas, facilitating smooth harvesting.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Bullions: Gold prices are expected to open with strong note tracking firm overseas clues. Gold rallied as dollar index fell lower to its key support of 80. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates near 0% and avoided unveiling new steps to stimulate the economy, though it signaled concern over deflation and said it was prepared to take further extraordinary measures to revitalize the weak U.S. economy.

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Date:21.09.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

Spices: Pepper futures may trade range bound between 19500-20500. This unhealthy trend often makes it difficult for exporters to make any commitments to their potential overseas buyers, as they said they were not certain about the price the next moment. The physical pepper availability in the country is believed to be tight. Added to this, there is a strong domestic demand and a good part of it is expected to emerge in the coming days in view of the ensuing festivals, wedding and winter seasons. Chilli futures may test the levels of 4800 in today’s session. Prices are rising and open interest is increasing at a rate, this is a bullish sign. More participants are entering the market, involving additional buying, and any purchases are generally aggressive in nature. Turmeric futures may witness resistance at 12700 levels amid higher acreage. 100% turmeric sowing has been completed in Andhra Pradesh region. Jeera futures may remain sideways. Projected lower stocks of 14 lakh bags are supporting the prices.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Bullions: Gold prices are expected to open in negative zone tracking stronger rupee. However international prices are trading steady and hovering around $1280 on COMEX division. Gold was little changed on Tuesday after hitting a record high for the third consecutive session, as investors await the outcome of a meeting of the Federal Reserve later in the day. It is expected that Fed may launch a new round of bond buying this week. Some policymakers worry that more easing could fuel market imbalances or sow the seeds of sky-high inflation ahead. The latest data from the U.S. showed home-builder sentiment remained stuck at a 1-1/2-year low in September, the latest suggestion the sector is in for a painful and prolonged climb back to health. The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings rose to 1,304.472 tonnes by Sept 20 from 1,300.825 tonnes on Sept 17.

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Date:18.09.10

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

Spices: Pepper futures (October) may continue to trade sideways taking support at 20000 levels. Spot Pepper remains neglected as buyers not interested in buying anything from the local market. Although, sellers not very aggressive, its becoming difficult for them to find buyers with reducing prices. Domestic demand continue to remain slower. There are reports indicating that arrivals from the upcountry markets have been better since the last few days. Indian MG I ASTA grade parity at $ 4425 / 4450 PMT FOB Cochin. Turmeric futures (October) may remain weak on lack of any clear direction of prices & high volatility. However the counter is expected to take support at 11900 levels. Chilli futures (October) may manage to sustain above 4500 levels. The only ray of hope is that the forward month contracts are trading in contango (i.e prices of next month contract is higher than the most active traded current month contract), which suggests that the demand from the domestic industries & exporters may give some speculative buying to the counter at lower levels. Jeera prices may remain stable taking the advantage of crop damage in Syria & turkey.

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Other commodities: Chana futures may continue to post profits on account of sustained festival buying. Guar complex may remain in the negative territory, with reports that Yield is expected to rise to 545 kg per hectare this year against 78 kg in 2009. The crop is on good condition and there were no reports of any loss due to diseases till date. Mentha oil futures may continue to move through profit booking scenario. Barley futures may remain upside with strapping demand from industries, as they are active in physical market to convene their requirements of the lean period (October to January).

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Oilseeds: Soya oil futures may bounce back lead by fresh buying and short covering in the near month futures. Soybean futures may remain sideways with weak spot markets due to fresh arrivals. The spot prices of soya bean were trading in the range of around Rs 1960- 1990 per quintal at Indore mandi in Madhya Pradesh. U.S. soybean futures ended up sharply as corn’s surge to nearly two-year highs raised concerns about the potential for soy plantings to suffer. Commodity funds bought an estimated 7,000 contracts. CBOT Nov soybeans closed up 32 3/4 cents at $10.69 a bushel. In September, USDA raised its forecast of the 2010 soybean yield to a record high 44.7 bushels per acre, increasing production by 50 million bushels to a record 3.483 billion bushels.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Bullions: Bullion counter is likely to remain on sideways. Recently bullish momentum was seen in bullions as worries about Europe’s sovereign debt have been a key driver in gold’s price rise. Because the metal isn’t as linked to economic cycles as more industrial commodities like copper and oil, it is often bought as a “safe-haven” asset when investors are worried about the economy or the stock market. Gold has also been supported by continued talk of the U.S. government initiating another round of economy-stimulating asset purchases, referred to as quantitative easing.

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Base Metals: Base metal pack may remain sideways. Copper ended on a positive note at 355.40 after a lack of proper direction in the price trend. Looking at the straight bull rally in the last week, copper future remains under pressure in the entire present week due to lack of volume and mixed macro economic outlook from China and USA. Copper may fall further in the coming days on reversing earlier gains after advancing by the most in the last two weeks. Fundamentally, Copper seems to be strong as it’s heavily used in industry.

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Energy: Crude oil may trade sideways. Crude oil prices fell a fourth straight session Friday after U.S. consumer sentiment data showed a surprise drop to the weakest level in more than a year. U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly worsened to its weakest level since August 2009, as distress over jobs and finances intensified among upper-income families. A longer pipeline shutdown could have started to drain U.S. stockpiles that remain well above year-ago levels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

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Date:17.09.10

DAILY OUTLOOK (Agri)

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Spices: Pepper futures may remain in range of 19600-20000 on heavy selling pressure and switching over on bearish activities. Heavyliquidation by investors coupled with huge switching over to next contract may pull down the current month contract. Turmeric futures maycontinue to take support at 12000 levels.

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Turmeric farmers and traders were expecting the price to rise. In the Regulated Market, the finger variety was sold at Rs 13,619-14,057 a quintal and the root variety sold at Rs 13,769-13,618 a quintal. Jeera futures may manage to tradeabove 13200 levels. Lower crop at Syria & turkey is supporting to the demand for Indian Jeera.

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Syria crop is lower by 5-10% while Turkeycrop is down by 40% due to heavy rains at the time of crop maturity. Cardamom futures may trade above 1000 levels on sustained buying.Total arrivals during the current season from August 1 to September 12, 2010, stood at 1,085 tonnes. Of this, 1,078 tonnes of cardamomwere sold.

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Other commodities: Chana futures may remain in range & the upside may be capped on account of luke warm demand & higher acreage.The increasing stocks at the exchange warehouse are also indicating that the stockiest are not liquidating their stocks, as they are not ableto fetch higher prices in retail market. Guar futures may remain range bound.

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The counters may not see a much higher side, as the upsidemovement is being underpinned by reports of bumper crop this season. In Jodhpur, guar seed traded at Rs 2,050 a quintal (all paid) andguar gum at Rs 4,750 a quintal. In Sriganganagar prices placed at Rs 1,960 per quintal (all paid). Mentha oil may witness the levels of 790on extended profit booking & weaker demand at spot markets. In Chandausi, mentha oil (68 GLC) quoted at Rs 920-922 per kg, in Sambhalat Rs 924, in Rampur at Rs 905 a kg and in Barabanki at Rs 885 a kg.

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Oilseeds: Domestic oilseeds may remain firm tracking talks of export orders. Millers in neighboring Thailand were in talks to buy up to70,000 tonnes of soy meal for October shipment, and looking to tie up another 100,000 tonnes for November. Feed makers in Vietnam arelooking to purchase 100,000 tonnes of soy meal for shipment in October and another 150,000 tonnes in November. Most business is likelyto go to India on competitive prices being offered by bean processors from the country. U.S. soybean futures snapped a three-day winningstreak as the early harvest uncovered strong yields and traders booked profits. U.S. exporters sold 170,500 tons of soybeans to China, theworld’s top soy importer. Soy futures likely to open higher, tracking firm global markets, buying momentum during yesterday’s closing hours.

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DAILY OUTLOOK (Metals & Energy)

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Bullions: Bullion counter is likely to open on positive note taking cues from international markets. Gold and silver both are currently trading at their life time highs and are anticipated to remain in bullish mode in near term.

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Gold held steady on Friday near its record asinvestors remained concerned over the economic recovery, and as a weak dollar provided support. Data out of the U.S. on Thursdayshowed an improved job market, while factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic continued to contract in September, albeit at a slower pace. Theeuro hovered below a one-month high on the dollar and yen.

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The dollar held near its highest in a month against the yen, capped by chartpoints and expected sales by Japanese exporters but supported by wariness of Japanese yen-selling intervention.

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Base Metals: Base metal pack is likely to open on positive note tracking firm Chinese markets. A drop in U.S jobless claims and strongproducer prices boosted risk appetite in commodities on Thursday, sending copper towards north. Even gold, the safe-haven, hit recordhighs on a weaker dollar.

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The 19-commodity Reuters-Jefferies CRB index however, fell slightly, due to lower oil prices. Bearish andpositive fundamentals have pulled commodity markets both ways this week. Gold surged to all-time highs on economic worries; coppertraded near four-month peaks on some encouraging data while other commodities like cotton and coffee hit multi-year highs on supplyconcerns.

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Energy: Weak demand and ahead of pipeline restart is pressurizing crude prices now a days. Oil was heading for a weekly drop onFriday, erasing gains related to the week-long shutdown of Enbridge’s biggest Canada-U.S. pipeline, now scheduled to restart in a matterof hours.

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Prices touched a one-month high of $78.04 earlier this week on expectations of an extended outage. Enbridge Inc hascompleted repairs and received regulatory approval to restart the duct on Friday, which carries up to a third of Canada’s U.S.-boundcrude shipments, restoring nearly 5 percent of imports by the world’s largest oil consuming nation.

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