Archive for the ‘SMC Global’ Category

Weekly Update 13th – 17th December 2010

The fall in the domestic markets in the week gone by was really painful. The fall was seen across the board; both mid and small size company stocks were heavily punished. SEBI probed in some companies for price rigging reignited the concerns that there may be some cases which are yet to come.

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On the global front, thiswas the week when most of the major developed markets along with the emerging economies closed in positive. The disconnect reveals that overhand in the markets was more related to domestic issues only.U.S. economic data is continuing to point out that environment over there is improving. A consumer sentiment that reflects the strength of consumer spending rose six months high to 74.2 in the first half of December from 71.6 at the end of November.

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U.S. trade deficit in October shrank more that expected to $38.7 billion from a revised $44.6 billion shortfall the month before. Further more, the expected continuance of Bush tax for next two years which is likely to be cleared by U.S. senate in next two weeks will also help in improving sentiments. Japanese economy saw an annualized expansion of 4.5 percent for the quarter ended 30th September against expectations of 4.1 percent. In order to address inflationary pressures in the economy, China once again raised the reserve requirements for the third time in five weeks by 50 bps.

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The recent move takes reserve ratios requirement now to18.5 percent for the biggest banks. Chinese leaders have also indicated that the nation will shift to a tighter, “prudent” monetary policy for next year. Consumer and producer price index rose to 5.1 percent and 6.1 percent respectively for the month of November as against the expectation of 4.7 and 5.1 percent respectively. Moving ahead, we believe that the concerns pertaining to Indian Industrial growth and in turn overall growth of the economy would not be there after seeing the 10.8 percent growth in IIP for the month of October as compared to 4.4 percent last month. Moreover,we also believe that even for the month of November we could see the Industrial growth picking up close to 12 percent.

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The indicators like car sales growth of 20 percent,commercial vehicle sales growing by more than 18 percent and HSBC Manufacturing PMI rising to 58.4 in November from 57.2 in previous month give support to our belief.In the forthcoming days we believe we may continue to see bouts of volatility in the markets as nervousness is still there. In short term now we think the advance tax figures would help the markets in gauging the profitability of India Inc. as the result season is approaching. Nifty has strong support between 5900-5840 and Sensex between 19400-19000.In commodity section, bullions counter may trade on volatile path due to lack of clear direction on risk sentiment. Base metal counter will take cues from economic data from US. Crude oil further movement will depend on the demand from China, OECD countries and weather conditions in Europe.

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OPEC members are planning to increase output over the coming months. Copper will continue to make fresh high in near term as the global deficit will push its prices to new levels. The outcome of Central Economic Work Conference in China will further guide the movement in metal counter. In agro pack guar complex may remain on weaker side amid weak export demand. Jeera and peeper maytad lower on selling pressure on news of re-sowing. Mentha oil can tumble lower onarrivals. Soya will remain range tracking mixed movement in CBOT. CPO may trade on higher side tracking firm Malaysian CPO.

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Equity News Update

DOMESTIC NEWS

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Economy

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•The Food Price index increased 13.75 per cent in the week ended October16, sharply lower that the previous week’s annual rise of 15.53 per cent,mainly as vegetables continued to exert downward pressure on account ofa base effect.

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Power

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•Reliance Power Ltd has placed order for 30,000 MW capacity of Boiler,Turbine, Generator Packages (BTG) for its coal based power plants withShanghai Electric Group Co Ltd, the leading global supplier of powerequipments.

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Realty/ Construction

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•Nagarjuna Construction has bagged four projects worth 540 crore in thestates of Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh.

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Capital Goods

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•BGR Energy Systems has bagged a 2,168-crore balance of plant (BoP)contract from Hyderabad-based Thermal Powertech Corporation of IndiaLtd. The project is funded by Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) as thelead lender with consortium of banks.

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Automobile

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•Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) is planning to ramp up its service centres by amassive 1,500 outlets by 2015 in line with its expansion of productioncapacity to over 17 lakh units annually. This enhancement is expected toresult in additional employment of about 22,000 people by the servicenetwork operators.Information Technology

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•Wipro Ltd, India’s No 3 software services provider, secured an IT servicescontract from Electricity North West Ltd, which operates the electricitydistribution network in north-west England.

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•Tata Consultancy Services announced an ASP (application service provider)initiative with Strate, the licensed Central Securities Depository (CSD) inSouth Africa. This joint venture with TCS, for the TCS BaNCS SecuritiesProcessing solution, will provide best-in-class and leading-edgetechnology to mid-tier players in the South African market.

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Pharmaceuticals

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•Strides Arcolab has received tentative approval from US Food and DrugAdministration (FDA) for one new drug application (ANDA) for fixed dosecombination of Lamivudine and Zidovudine tablets 150mg/300mg underthe expedited review provisions of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDSRelief (PEPFAR).

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•Biocon will invest $161 million in a facility in Malaysia, joining a number ofIndian companies that have chosen to establish facilities in the South-EastAsian country.

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Oil & Gas

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•Petronet LNG plans to set up a 1,200-MW gas-based power plant linked toits Dahej terminal and will seek the approval of its board in a month. Theproject would be financed through internal accruals and debt. Thecompany has already acquired about 50 hectares of land for the project.

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INTERNATIONAL NEWS

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•US third quarter GDP expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized pace, followinga 1.7 percent rise the prior quarter. The latest figure matched analysts’projections for a 2.0 percent gain. Year-on-year, real GDP in the secondquarter is up 3.1 percent, compared 3.0 percent in the second quarter.

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•US new home sales rose 6.6 percent to an annual rate of 307,000 inSeptember from an annual rate of 288,000 in August. hile new home salesremain at relatively low levels, the annual rate has moved well off therecord low of 282,000 set in May. Nonetheless, the annual rate of newhome sales in September is still 21.5 percent below the rate seen in thesame month a year ago.

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•US New factory orders for durable goods in September rebounded 3.3percent, following a 1.0 percent decrease in August. The gain inSeptember came in significantly above the consensus forecast for a 1.6percent boost. Excluding transportation, new durables orders fell back 0.8percent, following a 1.9 percent increase in August.

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•US initial claims fell steeply to 434,000 in an October 23 week that isn’tskewed by special factors. The level is the lowest since July as is the fourweekaverage of 453,250. Given that July’s data were distorted byadjustment problems tied to auto retooling, the latest batch of data isperhaps the best so far of the recovery.

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Ace Derivatives & Commodity Exchange

Ace Derivatives & Commodity Exchange with over five decades of impeccable experience in commodity trading, has recently transformed itself and established an online multi-commodity platform with a pan-India presence. Kotak Group is the anchor investor in ACE Commodity Exchange with a 51 per cent stake, while Haryana”s Hafed has a 15 per cent interest and banks like Bank of Baroda, Union Bank and
Corporation Bank have an over 14 per cent stake. The remaining equity is held by Ahmedabad Commodity Exchange members.

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Products offered

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Ace offers futures trading the following commodity groups:

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Bullions: Gold, Silver

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Energy: Crude oil, Natural Gas

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Agri

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•Castor Seed (Ex-Warehouse Ahmedabad)

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•Mustard Seed (Ex-Warehouse Jaipur-inclusive of all taxes but exclusive of Sales tax/ VAT)

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•Soybean Ex-Warehouse Indore -inclusive of all taxes but exclusive of Sales tax/VAT)

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•Refined Soy Oil (Ex-Tank Indore-Inclusive of all Taxes and Levies)

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•Pulses

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•Chana

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•Spices

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•Turmeric

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The Kotak-anchored exchange started futures trading in soybean, soyoil, rape/mustard seed, chana and castor seed. With the launch, the first set of contracts will be available for trade for delivery on November 20, December 20 and January 20.

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The lot size of trading is fixed at 10 tonnes of each contract. According to the exchange data, the castor seed contract for December-expiry opened at `3,442 a quintal, chana at `2,440 a quintal, soyabean at `2,244 a quintal, mustard seed at `573 for every 20 kg and refined soy oil at`545.90 for every 10 kg.

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Trade Timings:

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Agri: 10:00 a.m. to 05:00 p.m. (Monday to Friday)

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10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. (Saturday)

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Bullion/Metals: 10:00 a.m. to 11.30 p.m. (Monday to Friday)

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10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. (Saturday)

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Risk Management

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The Exchange assumes the counter party risk by guaranteeing trade settlement. The Risk Management framework of the Exchange ensures timely settlement.

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More hands working on…..

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Haryana State Cooperative Supply and Marketing Federation (Hafed) is planning to set up spot exchanges of the recently launched Ace Derivatives and Commodity Exchange (ACE) in mandis soon. The association of Hafed with the ACE will help it in playing the role of an aggregator and a risk manager on behalf of thousands of farmers, who will be motivated to become participants of the ACE in the coming decade.

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In addition to its convenient trading platform, Ace provides a robust clearing & settlement infrastructure that supports the complete process of trade intermediation – including registration of trades, settlement of contracts and mitigation of counter party risk; giving traders the peace of mind in times of increased market volatility.

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Weekly Update 1-5th November 2010

Global markets saw profit booking ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on monetary easing at its meeting on 2-3 November 2010 in order to spur growth and to reduce the unemployment rate. Economists expect the Fed to buy between $80 billion and $100 billion worth of assets each month in a new program to stimulate the economy. IMF pointed out that global liquidity, by whichthey meant money supply growth in the G-4 economies of Japan, the US, the euro zone and the UK, has an impact five times as large as domestic liquidity on what it called the liquidity receiving economies, or the emerging markets.

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The U.S. gross domestic product rose at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter after a 1.7 percent increase in the previous three months. Japanese factory production fell 1.9 percent in September from August and core consumer prices saw a decline of 1.1 percent from a year earlier added to worries that stronger yen is affecting economy expansion. G-20 finance ministers and central bankers said they will refrain from “competitive devaluation” and let markets have a bigger role in setting foreign-exchange values.

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Citing Inflation a major concern, RBI has last hiked the policy rates by 25 bps in September for the fifth time. Headline inflation has come off to single digit and is likely to come down further going ahead as harvest season produce is expected to come in the market. The government recently allowed duty-free import of rice and wheat and has released grains from its stocks to rein in food price rise. On the manufacturing side, Industrial production growth dropped to 5.6 percent in August from 15.2 percent in July. The growth of six infrastructure industries has further slowed to 2.5% in September, pulled down by contraction in output of coaland petroleum refinery.Though possibility of hike of another 25 bps by RBI in its meeting on 2nd November cannot be ruled out but a large section of the market believes that this timearound RBI may not touch upon the policy rates citing inflation coming down going forward and moderation in manufacturing activity.

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Further the actions taken so far by RBI has yet to give any material affect in the economy as even after the hikes in policy, the banks have yet to make adjustments in interest rates. Nifty has support between 5930-5840 and Sensex between 19640-19200.Sea saw movements in commodities is showing the nervousness among the investors ahead of Fed meeting which is scheduled in this week. If Fed goes for second round of quantitative then it can give confidence to economy and spill over can be seen in commodity as well. On the other side, if Fed goes for less than expected money injection in economy then we can see some downside in base metals and energy.

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Dollar index slid about 6 percent since early September on the talk of same “QE2” in US. Bullions were the major beneficiary of this fall in dollar index. October was a volatile month for commodities in which commodities reacted on every speculation over quantitative easing and agricultural markets going their own way as crops forecasts were cut. Commodities end month with modest gain. Investors should adopt cautious approach ahead of meeting.

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Sensex Tumbles 216 Points on Weak Global Cues

Stocks dropped on Wednesday, triggered mainly by weak sentiments in Asian markets  on concern over rising dollar, ahead of the expiry of October series of futures and option contracts.

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European markets saw a gap-down opening, but recovered later, helping the market to gain some ground in the last half-an-hour of trade. The BSE Sensex trimmed 216.02 points, or 1.07 per cent, to close at 20,005.37. Nifty index declined 69.35 points, or 1.14 per cent, to 6,012.65.

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“Strengthening of the dollar against a basket of major world currencies dragged the market on Wednesday. The Dollar Index, which has an inverse relationship with different assets classes, is rebounding these days. Due to which, investors have turned cautious on equities markets,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of research at SMC Global Securities.

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The Dollar Index on Wednesday rose to 77.92 against 76.64 on October 14. Before this, the index was falling continuously from the middle of July.

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There was also speculation that US Federal Reserve’s asset purchase plan may be a disappointing one, said Alex Mathews of Geojit BNP Paribas.

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“Nifty has a major support at 5,963 while on the upside, it faces resistance at 6,089 level. On Thursday, we are going to see the October F&O expiry. The rollovers at the end of Wednesday’s session was around 45 per cent,” he said.

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Banking stocks continued to weigh heavy while disappointing results of heavyweight NTPC hurt sentiments on the power counter.

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Union Bank, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank fell 5.85 per cent, 2.23 per cent and 1.93 per cent, respectively. SBI inched up 0.41 per cent to Rs 3,193.45. Union Bank on Wednesday posted 40 per cent decline in September quarter PAT to Rs 303 crore compared with the same period a year ago.

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NTPC fell 3.24 per cent after the company reported 2.07 per cent drop in PAT on 20.46 per cent year-on-year rise in net sales for the September quarter. The results were announced after Tuesday’s trading hours.

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Among other stocks in news, MRPL rose 1.76 to Rs 83.95 after its Q2 net profit jumped 56.70 per cent to Rs 281.57 crore. ONGC and HPCL, the two stakeholders of the company, dipped 1.80 per cent and 1.42 per cent.

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Shriram Transport Finance hit an all-time high and rose 3.94 per cent to Rs 89.45 after its net profit surged 44.11 per cent year-on-year to Rs 298.96 crore.

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SHIFT IN GOLD DEMAND: PERFORMANCE OF ETFs

Gold’s appeal as an alternative investment option remains high. Historically equities have performed better than gold barring certain minor aberrations here and there. However, asset allocation is an important aspect of any investment strategy. By balancing asset classes of different correlations, investors hope to maximize returns and minimize risk. While many investors may believe that their portfolios are adequately diversified, they typically contain only three asset classes – stocks, bonds/fixed income instruments and cash. To counter adverse movements in a particular asset or asset class, many investors now strive to achieve more effective diversification in their portfolios by incorporating alternative investments such as commodities. While gold has shown strong returns over recent years, its most valuable contribution to a portfolio lies in the fact that it is not correlated with most other assets. This is because the gold price is not driven by the same factors that drive the performance of other assets. Demand for gold may continue to rise as investors diversify their portfolio with an asset that is not correlated with the equity markets. In the melt down seen in 2008-09, gold was not correlated with the other assets and hence saved.

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Gold’s price action in the past few months has frustrated many traders. High volatility in prices created much risk for the investors as well as for intra day traders. At this time ETFs plays a major role as Gold ETFs provides investors a means of participating in the gold bullion market without the necessity of taking physical delivery of gold, and to buy and sell that participation through the trading of a security on stock exchange. Gold ETF would be a passive investment; so, when gold prices move up, the ETF appreciates and when gold prices move down, the ETF loses value. Each unit is approximately equal to price of 1 gram gold. But, there are Gold ETFs which also provide a unit which is approximately equal to the price of ½ gram of gold.

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Gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) serve several functions in both good times and bad. These days, we’re seeing it primarily workingas a safe haven for investors. According to the World Gold Council’s (WGC) latest Gold Investment Digest (GID), the quarter Q2 2010 recorded significant net inflows into various gold backed investment vehicles, as investors sought to harness gold’s investment benefits at a time of weakness and pronounced volatility in other asset classes. Investors bought 273.8 net tonnes of gold via exchange traded funds (ETFs) in Q2 2010. This represents the second largest quarterly inflow on record with the total amount of gold held in the ETFs monitored by WGC to over 2,000 tonnes (worth US$81.6 billion).

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Till now India has been the biggest consumer of gold but gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) were not much popular in India. However, things are changing fast inIndia. With increasing popularity more and more people are now putting their money on Gold ETFs. As a sign of this, India’s gold collection under exchange-traded funds rose 76 per cent in June 2010 from a year ago to 10.453 tonnes. There has been an increase of customers by 70-80 per cent (on year). Most of the participation  was from high net worth individuals and other retail investors. The gold ETFs, instruments that trade like shares and are backed by physical gold holdings, are more than three year old and may get crowded with some other funds planning their entry.

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Over the past nine years, gold has managed to post successive increases in its annual average price, navigating the choppiest of waters.

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From the above mentioned chart it is clearly visible that gold ETF’s has given significant return on yearly basis.GOLDBEES does the best and it does quite well in volumes also, thatis due to the fact that its expenses are lower than the competitors. More competition is always good for the customer, but unless someone comes up with an ETF with expenses lower than GOLDBEES, we can imagine GOLDBEES to be the best on this chart.

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ETF have shown consistent growth in volumes both in terms of number of trade and turnover. Based on the underlying asset different types of ETFs have been identified. The turnover and price of each class of ETF listed on NSE is given below.

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Advantages of Investing in Gold ETFs

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•Potentially cheaper to have price exposure to gold price as compared to other available avenues.

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•Quick and convenient dealing through demat account.

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•No storage and security issue for investors.

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•Transparent pricing.

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•Taxation of Mutual Fund.

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•Can be traded on stock exchange like buying / selling a stock.

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•Ideal for retail investor as minimum lot size to trade is one unit on secondary market.

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•NAV of a unit tracks price of approximately ½ or 1 gram of gold.

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The above mentioned benefits make gold ETFs much better investment avenue for the investors rather than investing in gold through any other source. However as we are seeing that strong investment demand for gold is quite visible, with investors viewing gold, a real asset and as a hedge against medium-term inflationary pressures and potential US dollar weakness. While also providing important diversification benefits, investors may continue to look to gold as a safe haven asset and an alternative currency in the face of volatile currency markets in coming period. Also the rising awareness among Indian investor regarding investment through gold ETFs may boost the demand in near future.

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GLOBAL BOARD OF TRADE (GBOT)

Adding another trading floor in the whole list of numerous exchanges around the world, Global Board of Trade (GBOT) ”the first international multi-asset exchange”  based out of Mauritius, was officially launched by that country’s Prime Minister Navinchandra Ramgoolam.

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GBOT is a wholly owned subsidiary of Financial Technologies (INDIA) Limited, a leading provider of trading technology solutions and a global leader in creating and operating transparent, efficient, and liquid tech-centric exchanges transacting a broad spectrum of asset classes, including equities, commodities, fixed income, and foreign currency instruments. GBOT is also a member of leading industry associations such as Association of Futures Markets (AFM), Futures and Options Association (FOA), Swiss Futures and Options Association (SFOA), and Defra EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS).

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In the Hands of………..

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GBOT has a very strong board comprising reputed names such as Mr. Venkat Chary (Chairman), Mr. Jignesh Shah (Vice- Chairman), Mr. Mohammad A. Vayid (Director), Mr. V. Hariharan (Director) , Mr. Joseph Hadrian Bosco (Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer).

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Trade Timings

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It is proposed that the normal market trading hours on Global Board of Trade for Currency and Commodity Derivatives Segments will be 09:30 Hrs Mauritian Time (05:30 Hrs GMT) till 23:30 Hrs Mauritian time ( 19:30 Hrs GMT). Any decision about revision of the trading hours, as and when it happens, will be informed to the market participants via trading circulars.

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Value Propositions

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  • The strategic location of Mauritius (i.e. GMT +4) with respect to the rest of the world will enable the investing community to hedge price risk movements vis-à-vis the asian, Europenn and American markets.

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  • Trades will be in the form of standardized contracts and participants will be anonymous , thus ensuring the price discovery  process will be free from the influence of any vested interest or non-market forces.

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  • The commodity market segment of GBOT will enable sellers and buyers of commodities to protect their business from the adverse effects of price volatility in the terrestrial markets. The price risk management will be through the time-tested process of ‘hedging’.

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  • The advantage of a moderate tax regime prevailing in Mauritius will be of immense benefit to investors and traders alike.

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  • GBOT would offer commodity as well as currency derivative products on its state-of-the-art electronic exchange platform with efficient clearing and settlement systems to ensure counter-party guarantee for all trades.

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  • For the first time worldwide, two African currency futures will be traded.

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Products:

Bullions: Gold, Silver

Currencies: EUR/USD, GBD/USD, JPY/USD, USD/MUR, ZAR/USD

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