Archive for the ‘india’ Category

RED HERRING PROSPECTUS: A CAREFUL EXERCISE

Initial Public Offering (IPO) is an exercise done by a company for raising capital by going public. IPO is raised generally in two ways either through fixed price or through Book Building. Generally, most of the companies follow the book building process. For this purpose, the company assigns the Merchant Banker as a Book Running Lead Manager (BRLM) for the IPO to handle the responsibility of Book Building Process.

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Book Building is a mechanism through which a consensus price of IPO can be determined on the basis of bids received from the informed investors such as Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs), Non-Institutional Buyers (NIBs) and Retail Investors. The process helps in making a correct evaluation of a company’s potential and the price of its shares. In most of the IPOs generally the allocation of the total issue into these 3 categories comprises of 50%, 15%, 35% of the total issue respectively.

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However when the dilution of the promoters stake is less than 25% the minimum allocating proportion for these categories changes to 60%, 10%, 30% of the total issue,respectively. The company aspiring to be public, files Red Herring Prospectus (RHP),framed by merchant banker, to the regulatory body SEBI that is supposed to cover all the important information about the company, its promoters and its businesses with due diligence.

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RHP is supposed to be the most important document for the company as it acts as a medium of imparting all the critical information regarding the issuer company to the public.Generally prospectus spreads over 300-400 pages. However, investors can concentrate on few key chapters to have the overall understanding of the public issue. Industry Overview, Company Overview, Capital Structure, Objects of the issue, Financial Information and Management discussion and Analysis are some of the chapters that one should necessarily focus on.

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Let’s understand the relevance of each of these topics one by one:

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Industry Overview: This chapter covers the prevailing market scenario of the industry in which the company operates. We get to know that how much the particular industry contributes to the growth of the country’s economy. That is the behavior of the industry with respect to the growth momentum of the country’s economy. Moreover it entails the government plans and initiatives, budgetary allocation in accordance with five year plans for the industry. This gives the picture of potential opportunity in the industry and its key drivers. It also includes the various linkages regarding the relation of industry to the domestic and global economy.

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Business Overview: This compasses all the information related to the business domain of the company – how the business commenced its operations, grown over the period. The product details of the company and where does it lies in the value chain of the industry. The product scope,how the distribution channel works, the marketing strategy, raw material procurement, details about the vendors, clients and their relation withthe company, the revenue generation process, target market, location of operation. All these information helps in knowing the strengths and weaknesses of the company. It also gives information regarding the future aspects of the company.

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How the company is expecting to expand its business, strategies to increase the market share of the company.

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Capital Structure: It tells us about the shareholding pattern of the company. The constituents of the present equity capital of the company, since inception to the present pattern of the shareholding. The details of the how it has raised its capital under the due period. It gives us the details aboutwho are the stakeholders along with their respective stake in the company.

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Objects of the Issue: This chapter assumes high degree of significance in the RHP as it answers the very first question that comes to the mind of the investors that for what reason the company is going public. It entails the objectives of the issue as where and how the company is going to deploy the funds raised from the issue. At times the company induces the fund requirements from the internal accruals that can be from the present business profits of the company or through the debt syndication from banks along with the issue proceeds.

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Company sometimes also utilize the issue proceeds to repay its debt so as to reduce its interest burden. Thus, it contains the purposes of the issue with their respective amount being required.

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Financial Information: This includes all the financial statements of the company on the stand alone and consolidated basis viz. Profit and loss statement, balance sheet, fund flow statement. These statements show the performance of the company from past 4-5 years along with the annexure that details various heads of these statements. Financial Statements helps the investors in knowing the health of the company in numbers.Various ratios and multiples are arrived with the help of these statements.

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Management Discussion and Analysis: This chapter summarizes the company businesses and its development in due course of time. Year-on-year financial comparison is explained in this part of the document. This helps us in knowing the management’s efficiency to grow a company. Certain important events, factors affecting the operations of the company or some specific strategies of the company are explained in this part of the document.To sum up, RHP being the formal document of the company plays an integral role in assessing the company’s business prospects and thus helps investors in taking decision for subscribing an IPO or otherwise.

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However, it is generally perceived as a lengthy exercise by some section of investors.This can be achieved by going through the above discussed topics that can impart all the relevant information of the company leading to a wise investment decision. After all, “Moneywise Be wise”.

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Turmeric………Golden Spice

Turmeric is a very important spice in India from ancient times. India is the biggest producer with account of nearly 90% of the world’s total production and consume 80%of it. Turmeric, basically a tropical plant of ginger family is the rhizome or underground stem Global Trade and production The main producing countries of turmeric are India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka,Taiwan, China, Burma (Myanmar) and Indonesia.

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The total yearly consumption of Turmeric all around the globe is approximately 38 Lakh bags to 40 Lakh bags.India is largest exporter (approximately 90%) of Turmeric. Taiwan, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries are other exporter. United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the major importer accounting for 24.06 % of the total exports followed by United States of America (USA) with 12.93 %. Japan, Sri Lanka, Iran, United Kingdom and Middle Eastern countries are other major Importers of Turmeric.Production of Turmeric in India Generally, India produces almost 7 to 9 lakh ton per annum.

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The important varieties produced in India are: ‘Alleppey Finger’ (Kerala) and ‘Erode and Salem turmeric’ (Tamil Nadu), ‘Rajapore ‘and’ Sangli turmeric’ (Maharashtra)and ‘Nizamabad Bulb'(Andhra Pradesh).As per latest Statistics last year India has 185320 hectares under turmeric cultivation with a total production of 7.01 lakh tonnes. Andhra Pradesh topped both in area and production. Andhra Pradesh contributes nearly 31 per cent of the area under turmeric.Acreage under turmeric in the State has increased to 0.65 lakh hectares as on October 13th this year.

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Tamil Nadu is second largest producer state. In Tamil Nadu, the area under turmeric is expected to increase 9 per cent to 0.43 lakh hectares.India exports about 10% e.g. 40,000 to 50,000 tons of turmeric per annum. Turmeric isthe third-largest spice exported from India. In terms of quantity and value, it accounts about 12% and 5% respectively. USA, Malaysia and china are major importer of Indian turmeric.Turmeric exportswere lower in theApril-August 2010 quarter with a slip of 13%in volume to 22,500 tonnes compared to 25,500 tonnes in same period of last year.

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Prices seasonality

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Turmeric prices will be hovering lower between January and June.This could be mainly attributed to supply pressure due to new crop arrivals. From June onwards prices will start moving up as the market approaches lean season. Prices peak during October and December month of every year. As per seasonal trend,words of caution may enter into turmeric prices, as the trade may remain in a broader range with some bulk buying & festive season demand. Generally, the new crop hits the market during February-March. But this year it is expected to arrive a little early. Farmers will bring the crop early due to high returns earned last year. Therefore, increased arrivals at spot market will put pressure on the prices next year.

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Turmeric update

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•Turmeric production in 2010-11 is expected to improve by 43-45 per cent to 65-70lakh bags compared with 48 lakh bags in 2009-10.

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•Turmeric production in Andhra Pradesh in 2010/11 is expected to jump by 40 percent to 368,000 tonnes compared to 263,000 tonnes, the state horticulture department data showed.

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•Farmers considerably increased the area under the spice as prices were remunerative

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•The total stocks of turmeric are currently at 11 lakh bags against 7 lakh bags reported last in the same period.

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•The price of turmeric soared to an all time high of `15,500 a quintal in the Erode market.

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Weekly Update 18th – 22nd October 2010

Most of the world markets rallied in the week gone by on the buzz of further quantitative easing by U.S. Without giving details about the strategies on how the central bank will act its Nov. 2-3 meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said additional monetary stimulus may be warranted because inflation is too low and unemployment is too high.

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Fed is considering ways for raising inflation expectations to encourage people to believe that prices will start rising at a faster pace so that they would spend more of their money now. Retail sales in U.S.climbed more than forecast as purchases rose 0.6 percent following a 0.7 percent gain in August and manufacturing in the New York region expanded in October at a faster pace than anticipated.

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China’s Shanghai Composite Index saw gains of 8.5 percent on the anticipation that China’s banks show strong earnings growth this quarter as the lending has beaten the forecast. Moreover the strong exports growth of 25.1 percent in September mirrors the strong underlying economic momentum. The country’s foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s largest, surged by a record to $2.65 trillion at the end of September.

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India’s wholesale price index rose to rose 8.62 percent in September from a year earlier after an 8.5 percent gain in August. Manufactured product inflation and Food price inflation rose by 0.3 percent and 1.6 percent respectively in September fromthe previous month. RBI Chief Subbarao said that inflation in India is being “quite stubborn,” a sign that controlling prices remains the central bank’s priority.

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Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn signaled the central bank may intervene in the currency markets to shield exporters from the strengthening rupee. The capital account showed a surplus of $17.5 billion in the quarter to June 30, compared with a record shortfall of $13.7 billion in its current account.

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Foreign investors have so far poured approximately $23 billion in stocks and 10 billion indebt this year. Industrial production expanded by 5.6 percent in August after seeingan expansion of 15.2 percent in July.Going next week the main attraction for retail investors would be the primary market with Mega IPO of Coal India slated to open on 18th October. As Infosys has already rung the bell with positive surprise in terms of earning growth, the investors would now look forward to numbers of companies like L&T, HDFC, Bajaj Auto, etc that are scheduled to announce numbers next week.

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Nifty has support between5870-5950 and Sensex between 19200-19640 levels.With expecting second round of monetary easing, investors dumped dollar and endowed other investment avenues. Commodities extended a rally to the highest intwo years and CRB closed near the mark of 300. The dollar fell to its lowest in 10 months against a basket of currencies and breached the mark of 77. Five week continuous downfall enhanced metals and agricultural commodities.

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Gold gave heroic performance and made another life time high. It rose more than 25% in 2010.Silver is also trading near 30 year high. However, being prudent investors, one should book profit in gold and silver, considering safe trading. Base metals are expected to trade in a range. Crude oil should trade in range $80-85 in short run on mixed fundamental. OPEC has decided to keep the production quota unchanged in last meeting. Agro commodities should trade with high volatility ahead of expiry of October contract.

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Equity News Round Up 11th – 15th October

DOMESTIC NEWS

Economy

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•Food inflation eased marginally to 16.24% for the week ended September 25, from 16.44% in the previous week, as improved supplies lowered prices.

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Capital Goods

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•BHEL has bagged a `3,700-crore from Karnataka Power Corporation Ltd for setting up the 700 MW Bellary Thermal Power Station in Karnataka.

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•Lanco Infratech informed that its Vidarbha power project based in Maharashtra, has achieved financial closure. The company has raised debt to the tune of `5,549 crore to fund the project which has an estimated cost of around `6,936 crore. The rest of requirement is funded by equity of `1,387 crore.

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•Larsen & Toubro (L&T) has bagged `1,585 crore orders in July-September period from the construction segment. Of the `1,585 croreorders, `435 crore order is for construction of building projects fromleading developers while `781 crore orders is from “clients forconstruction of hotel, office building and add on orders from its ongoing airport and commercial building projects”.

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Automobile

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•Hero Honda has launched a limited edition of its 100cc motorcyclePassion Pro, priced at `46,300 (ex-showroom Delhi).

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Realty/ Construction

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•IVRCL Infrastructure and Projects said its various divisions have wonorders worth `1,120 crore from sectors including power and transportation. The company’s water division bagged the highest `451crore order, followed by `440 crore by building divisions,`136 crore by transportation division and `92 crore by power division.

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•Punj Lloyd Group has bagged a `539-crore contract from the state owned gas utility GAIL India for laying a natural gas pipeline from Dabholto Bangalore. The project will be executed over a period of 13 months.

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Pharmaceutical

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•Cadila has got approval from US health regulator to market high blood pressure treatment tablets, Losartan Potassium and Losartan Potassium and HCTZ in the American market. The US Food and Drug Administration approval has been granted to the firm’s subsidiary Zydus Cadila, for Losartan Potassium tablets in the strengths of 25 mg, 50 mg and 100 mg and for Losartan Potassium and Hydrochlorothiazide tablets in the strengths of 50/ 12.5 mg and 100/25 mg.

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Power

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•NTPC may invest over `10,000 crore to set up a 2,640 megawatt (Mw)thermal power project at Gidarbaha in Punjab. The Project shall be setup as regional power project by NTPC and would also be the company’s first in the state.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

•US Pending Home Sales Index jumped more than four percent for asecond straight month, to 82.3 in August (2001 = 100). The prior month was revised to 78.9, shaving July’s gain to 4.5 percent. The readings point to a second straight jump for existing home sales which surged nearly eight percent in August.

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•US non-farm payroll employment fell by 95,000 jobs in September following a revised decrease of 57,000 jobs in August. Economists had expected employment to come in flat compared to the loss of 54,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

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•UK output price index rose 4.4% annually in September, compared with a4.7% gain in August. The increase was a touch higher than the expected 4.3% rise. Output prices gained 0.3% month-on-month after stagnating in August. Excluding food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum, output prices increased 4.6% annually.

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•The Japanese Cabinet approved a 5.05 trillion yen ($62 billion) new stimulus package to boost the economy amid widespread concerns that it could slip back into recession. The new package, which will befinanced by an extra budget, is aimed at addressing labor market issues,social welfare and healthcare services. The government is trying to finalize this additional budget by the end of this month.

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Weekly Update 11th – 15th October 2010

Beside Indian market all global markets closed in green in the week gone by on the expectation of policy easing by developed nations. Central banks resorting to purchase of debt and currency intervention in developedeconomies is flooding markets with liquidity and funds are flowing to Asia for higherreturns. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has signaled that Fed may announce thepurchase of more Treasuries as soon as their next policy meeting in November in aneffort to boost growth and reduce an unemployment rate.

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The Bank of Japan said this week it will establish a 5 trillion yen ($61 billion) fund to buy government bondsand other assets. It also cut its benchmark overnight interest rate for the first timesince 2008, dropping it to a range of zero to 0.1 percent. Joining the league European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet too said that ECB policymakers are in the “same mood” as a month ago and for now remain committed tophasing out their unlimited lending program.With the economic activity gaining pace, it is believed that Indian market wouldcontinue to see overseas buying. Moreover Indian government plans to raise $8.9billion in the year ending March 31 selling state assets including Coal India, Steel Authority of India Ltd. and Indian Oil Corp. thereby giving more investment opportunities to investors.

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While many developed nations are intervening in the currency markets in order tostem the appreciation in the currency, Indian Finance minister is of the opinion thatthe situation has not gone to an extent at which there is a need to restrict portfolio or foreign direct investment. As a matter of fact Indian rupee gained 4.5 percent inSeptember. Finance Minister said “We should try to engage the countries innegotiations and build up a consensus through which the matter can be resolved andit cannot be resolved through confrontation.” The International Monetary Fundraised its 2010 economic growth forecast for India to 9.7 percent from 9.4 percent,citing strengthening local consumer demand.

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Since we have already seen a huge run up in the broader indices meaning moreparticipation coming from large cap stocks so now going forward we may expectmore activity in mid and small cap stocks. The result season is starting in the comingweek and corporate would give their guidance for the rest of the year which wouldset the future undertone of the markets. Nifty has support between 5950-5870 and Sensex between 19640-19200 levels.What a stunning rally gold has enjoyed recently on fear of inflation. It has hit many records in fewer days.

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Silver was not behind, it made life time high of `34898 on MCX and breached the mark of `35000 in spot market. Talk of quantitative easing by US and rate cut by BoJ are creating anxiety over currency devaluation and long-terminflation is keeping gold and silver on remarkable run up. After witnessing the bigswings of both side, we can say that trend of crude oil is little bit in indecision mode.However, bias should be on upside. Michigan Confidence, CPI and advance retailsales data of US may further provide the direction to metals and energy. Industrialmetals which have made upper trading range last week, are likely to trade up onweakening dollar index.

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NATURAL GAS……….. THE FUEL OF THE 21ST CENTURY

Natural gas has emerged as the most preferred fuel and vital component of theworld’s supply of energy due to its environmentally cleanest, safest and most useful nature, greater efficiency and cost effectiveness among all energy sources.Natural gas is a mixture of hydrocarbon gases. In its purest form, such as the naturalgas that is delivered to your home, is almost pure methane.

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Growing importance: We require energy constantly, to heat and cook food, and generate electricity. Due to clean burning and lower emission levels of potentiallyharmful byproducts into the air as compared to other fossil fuels, the importance of natural gas in our lives is growing constantly. The demand of natural gas has sharplyincreased in the last two decades at the global level. In India too, the natural gas sector has gained importance, particularly over the last decade, and is being termedas the fuel of the 21st Century.The industrial and electricity sector accounts for the greatest proportion of natural gas use across the world. The US residential sector consuming the second greatestquantity of natural gas.

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Global Production: According to U.S. Department of Energy, globally total provedreserves of natural gas is 6,254.364 trillion cubic feet (tcf) in 2009 with an increase of0.68% as compared to 2008. Russian federation has largest reserve of 1,680.00 tcffollowed by Iran and Qatar with 991.600 and 891.945 tcf reserve respectively. Russiais largest producer of natural gas with 23 tcf followed by USA with over 20 tcf. Majorexporters of piped natural gas are Russia (154 bcm), Canada (103 bcm) and Norway(93 bcm), the major importers are US (104 bcm), Germany (87 bcm) and Italy (75bcm). The major exporters of CNG are Qatar (40 bcm), Malaysia (29 bcm), Indonesia(27 bcm) and the major importers are Japan (92 bcm), South Korea (36 bcm) andSpain (30 bcm.)

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Production in India: Natural gas production in India grows at averaging 11.7percent per year. Total production is estimated to grow from 1.1 trillion cubic feet in2007 to 2.7 trillion cubic feet in 2015. Most of the production of gas comes from theWestern offshore area. The on-shore fields in Assam, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat States are other major producers of gas. Fertilizer (41%) and power (37%) are themajor users of natural gas in India.

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Factors affecting demand for Natural Gas: There are two primary drivers thatdetermine the demand for natural gas in the short term-Weather and Fuel Switching.Natural gas demand typically peaks during the coldest months for heating homes anddips during the warmest months, with a slight increase during the summer to meetthe demands of electric generators. Hurricanes and severe weather also disrupt the supply.

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While most residential and commercial customers rely solely on natural gas to meetmany of their energy requirements, some industrial and electric generationconsumers have the capacity to switch between fuels. For instance, during a periodof extremely high natural gas prices, many electric generators may switch from using natural gas to using cheaper coal, thus decreasing the demand for natural gas.

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Generally the state of the U.S. economy can have a considerable effect on thedemand for natural gas in the short term, particularly for industrial consumers. When the economy is expanding or declining, the consumption of natural gas fromindustrial sectors is generally increasing or decreasing at a similar rate.Long term demand factors reflect the basic trends for natural gas use into the future.The analysis of factors that affect long term demand across all sectors arecomplicated.

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Probably the most important long term driver of natural gas demand isfuture residential heating applications. Due to the retirement of old nuclear,petroleum, and coal powered generation plants leaves a significant requirement fornatural gas use for electric generation to meet the commercial demand forelectricity generation and transportation.

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Outlook: Currently the future prices of natural gas in MCX are trading in sidewaysmanner. It has strong support at `170. Seasonal demand from mid oct can support therecovery upto `220 in mid term.

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Equity News 27th September – 1st October

DOMESTIC NEWS

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Economy

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·Food inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), rose to 15.46 per cent for the week ended September 11, primarily due to rise in prices of potatoes and onions. Food inflation stood at 14.77 per cent during the corresponding week in 2009 and at 15.1 per cent during the previous week ended September 4.
Realty/ Construction ·IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects Ltd (IVRCL) has bagged orders worth `750
crore for four laning and improvement of Karanji-Wani-Ghuggus – Chandrapur Road Maharashtra State Highway – 6&7 in Yavatmal and Chandrapur district on DBFOT basis.


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Cement

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·J K Lakshmi Cement would invest `1,800 crore over the next three-four years to double its cement production capacity to 10 million tonnes.

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Oil & Gas

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·GAIL India will make capital investment of around `40,000 crore ($8.8 billion) by 2014-15, mainly to expand its pipeline network and boost petrochemicals capacity.

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Telcommunication

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·Kavveri Telecom has bagged a contract worth `30 crore from one of the telecom operators for the supply of equipment and antennas. The order is to be completed within a year.

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·Bharti announced its entry into the fast-growing mobile handset business as group firm Beetel launched eight handsets in the price range of `1,750- 7,000. Bharti is India’s number one mobile service provider with over 140 million subscribers and the company recently acquired Zain Telecom in Africa to expand its footprint in 16 countries.

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Capital Goods

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·BHEL said it is in talks with SAIL and Vizag Steel to tie up for manufacturing high grade steel, while Korean steel maker Posco may join the proposed joint venture company as a technology partner.

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·Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd has got a contract worth `2,665 crore ($583 million) to set up a 1,200 megawatts coal-fired power plant at Chhattisgarh in central India.

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Paint

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·Berger Paints India Limited has proposed to set up a paints manufacturing complex at Hindupur in Anantapur district of Andhra Pradesh comprising three units and involving an investment of around `350 crore.

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Pharmaceuticals

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·Aurobindo Pharma has received USFDA approvals for ampicillin and.sulbactam injections in bottle, single-use vial and bulk pack formats.

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Ampicillin and sulbactam is a sterile semi-synthetic penicillin product falling under the anti-infective segment.

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FMCG

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·Procter & Gamble India (P&G) is set to bring in one of its biggest global brands–Wella hair colour—as it looks to strengthen its health and beauty business in India. This is the first time that the detergents-to-diaper maker will enter the Indian hair colour market, which is dominated by L’Oreal India’s L’Oreal Excellence Crème and Garnier, and Godrej Consumer Products.

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INTERNATIONAL NEWS

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·US Fed left policy rates unchanged but appears to have begun preparations for additional easing-possibly at the post-election November FOMC. The fed funds target range was left unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent and, again, the Fed stated that this rate is expected to remain low for an “extended period.”

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·US Housing starts showed unexpected strength in August with even the single-family component increasing. Housing starts in August jumped 10.5 percent after rising a modest 0.4 percent in July. The August annualized pace of 0.598 million units clearly topped analysts’ expectations for 0.550 million units and is actually up 2.2 percent on a year-ago basis. The gain in August was led by a 32.2 percent surge in multifamily starts, following a 36.0 percent increase in July. The single-family component rebounded 4.3
percent after dipping 6.7 percent in July.

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·US Existing home sales rose 7.6 percent in August to a 4.130 million annual rate, up substantially from July’s 3.840 million rate (revised from 3.830).

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Gains swept regions with supply coming down a bit, at a still extremely swollen 11.6 months. Prices are softening, down 1.9 percent to a median $178,600. The gain in sales was predicted by the pending homes sales report released early in the month, data that popped higher.

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