Archive for the ‘China’ Category

YUAN …. “KNEE-JERK REACTION”

The Chinese New Year has only just started, and already trade tensions are ratcheting up. The strength of China’s Yuan gave the world a confidence to end the peg & acted as a cushion for reviving from the fears of the global financial crisis, especially with European debt worries in the background.

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China’s yuan soared at 6.7980, its highest level against the US dollar since its July 2005 revaluation after the central bank signaled it would allow the yuan to continue its rise.

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REVALUATION OR REVOLUTION???

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The yuan policy change signaled that the Chinese economy “the world’s third-biggest economy” is on a more solid footing. China has been under intense global pressure, especially from the US, to introduce more flexibility between the yuan and the dollar to encourage the cash-rich Chinese to buy more from the heavily indebted West.

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Needless to say, a stronger yuan would allow China to lower the cost of its imports, particularly commodities.

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Even a small rise in the yuan could shave billions off the cost while raising the volume of China’s commodity purchases. China’s economy is still in a cycle towards overheating.

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China’s inflation accelerated in May to 3.1%, the quickest pace in 19 months, highlighting overheating risks in the fastest-growing major economy. Inflationary pressures may convince China to allow its currency to appreciate. A stronger yuan is in China’s interest to satisfy its appetite for resources.

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Yuan appreciation should benefit China’s importers of bulk commodities like soybeans, cotton, copper and various mining products including iron ore and other metal ores as these commodities, priced in the dollar, will be cheaper. The appreciation will support commodities prices in dollar terms in global markets as China will be able to accept higher prices in the dollar terms.

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Following is a list of some likely winners and losers from any yuan appreciation.

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WINNERS

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·Foreign resource companies – On hopes China’s move would increase its resource imports.

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·Foreign heavy machinery makers – The U.S. sells billions of dollars worth of machinery and products to China each year.

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·Foreign automakers – Foreign automakers that sell cars in the world’s largest vehicle market, should also gain.

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·U.S. companies such as General Electric Co and Procter & Gamble Co are likely to make currency exchange gains when their China profits are converted into U.S.dollars.

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·Chinese airlines – China’s three top carriers, Air China China Eastern Airlines and China Southern which borrow in foreign currencies to pay for aircraft, but generate reveyuan, could benefit the most. Airlines also use dollars to buy fuel.

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·Foreign luxury firms – A firmer yuan would likely boost other Asian currencies as a strong yuan is seen by investors as a pledge of confidence for Asia’s growth. That should help luxury goods makers, whose imported products will be cheaper across the region, just as more Asians benefit from increased wealth.

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LOSERS

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·Foreign retailers- Companies signed earlier memorandum of understanding for projects to build, would have to spend more in U.S. dollars to fund investments.

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·Chinese commodity firms – Companies with dollar-linked prices for their output, but their costs are in yuan, would find their revenues falling while their costs remain steady, if yuan strengthens.

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In a nut shell, China is not shying away from commodity consumption any time soon.They still have roads to pave, factories to build, and cities to expand. China is thinking ahead in terms of commodity demand. The shift toward a stronger exchange rate may give more purchasing power to its people. Chinese consumers might buy more while their counterparts in the U.S. may have to pay more & cut back on their spending as the cost of goods imported into America rises. This move is a net plus for the world economy.

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Weekly Update 31st May – 4th June

Markets posted gains in the week gone by as the investors felt that stocks are battered down harshly in the short run. Buying came in Asian stocks on speculation that China will rein its effort to cool its economy as European debt crisis threatens a global recovery. Concerns also rose that the banks in Spain may face further losses after IMF urged Spain to do more to overhaul its ailing banking sector. The regulator is pushing ailing banks to merge with stronger partners.

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US Treasury Secretary Geithner said that US, China along with India, Brazil and other emerging economies are experiencing stronger recovery as compared to earlier anticipation and are positioned well to face the challenges from the European Nations. The OECD revised India’s GDP growth forecast for 2010 to 8.2% from its earlier estimate of 7.3%. It also raised the growth forecast for 2011 to 8.5% from its earlier estimate of 7.6%. The OECD also said that underlying inflationary pressures are likely to persist given the strong outlook for demand. IMF pegged India’s GDP growth forecast at 8.75% in calendar 2010 and 8.5% in calendar 2011 on expectations of strengthening of domestic demand. Back at home, RBI in order to ensure optimum liquidity in the system so that the public and private sector credit demands are met, eased credit lines for the banks.

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Banks can now borrow additional 0.5% of their net demand and time liabilities from the Central Bank under the repurchase agreement till 2 July 2010. In addition, RBI said that as an adhoc measure, banks can seek a waiver for any shortfall in maintenance of the prescribed 25% Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) while availing the temporary facility. This step is taken by the RBI in view of the temporary liquidity pressure in the market because of the 3G auction and advance tax payments in the coming days. Talking about the much awaited Indian monsoon, the arrival is expected to be delayed by three days after tropical cyclone laila stalled its progress.

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Inspite of the big rally in last three days, overall trend of world stock markets is still down. Even the base metal commodities including Crude saw a rally but could not sustain at higher levels. Rupee which had crossed 47.70 levels intraday week came down to 46.30. Volatility is expected to remain high. Nifty faces resistance between 5100-5150 levels and Sensex between 17000-17200 levels.

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Persistent fear about the European region’s sovereign debt situation may keep buying intact in bullions. Commodity market is still volatile and jittery as crisis is still looming over EU nations. However, satisfactory first-quarter economic figures from the prominent Asian countries viz., China, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and Malaysia will try to offset steep decline in base metals and energy complex.

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Furthermore, the week is full of event risk as well as many nations are coming with their first quarter GDP data, if any improvement occurs, it will stimulate buying in base metal and energy section. Dollar index, which is on track to give its best monthly performance since October, 2008 is likely to trade in a range in short run.

Weekly Update 19th – 23rd April 2010

After nine consecutive weeks of gains, domestic markets ended in the negative terrain in the week gone by on the concerns over interest rate tightening by the RBI in its monetary policy scheduled on 20th April coupled with weak cues from the Asian markets.

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Moreover increase in unemployment numbers in US and China’s measures to cool its real estate market raised the uncertainty over the global economic growth. Now, Investors are much wary over the signs of overheating in China as its economy grew almost 12%, the biggest expansion since 2007, Industrial production grew 18.1% in March & retail sales increased 18%. Closer home IIP numbers for the month of February grew by 15.1% as against an annual gain of 16.7% in January, and 17.6% in December. While India’s inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index (WPI), surprisingly stayed almost unchanged in March at 9.90% as compared to 9.89% in February. However, it is expected that after the strong Industrial numbers, improving trade, healthy credit off take in the last fortnight of last financial year & high Inflation, RBI may take steps to suck liquidity by increasing Cash Reserve Ratio & give signals of higher interest rates to the banking system & industry as well by increasing both policy rates. The other concern emerging for the manufacturing growth is appreciating rupee.

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As a major proportion of manufactured goods are meant for exports, the rise in domestic currency will arrest exporters’ margin & may result in lower export.

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FII’s also were a bit cautious to actively participate in the market ahead of RBI’s policy review. In the current CY, FIIs have so far pumped in more than $5.42 billion, while in the month of April; they have been net buyers at $ 1.05 billion in the Indian markets. Expectation of the good corporate results is likely to play a catalyst role for the next direction of the market. World stocks & commodity markets fell across the board after the revelation of SEC announcing civil fraud charges against Goldman Sach’s. This incident is likely to have its effect on the markets in the coming week.

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After 9 weeks of continuous rally in Indian stock markets, the rally ended last week after Nifty closed down 1.85% for the week. With world stock markets including the commodities taking a sharp correction on Friday, it seems that temporarily a top has been made in the market and one should be careful.

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Nifty has support between 5200-5100 levels and Sensex between 17400-17200 levels.

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On the commodity front, a range trading is expected in metals and energy.

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Since last few weeks, bullions and base metals have been trading in upper zone but are unable to break the resistance. Once they break their resistance then only, traders’ can see a new trading range. Back at home, sharp appreciation in rupee is also locking the movements. Data from European Union is important for the week apart from PPI and housing data of US. If improvement continues then only commodities will trade in upper trading range or vice a versa. Agro commodities could be more volatile ahead of expiry of April contract on NCDEX. In agro commodities, guar could see further rise on improved fundamentals as well as technical.

Weekly Update of The Market (08th-12th February)

Hello Friends, here, we bring you the weekly overview of the Indian as well as of the Global economy and  latest global business and industry updates.

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Weekly Update of The Market (08th-12th February)

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After starting the year on a good note & Indices making fresh highs within few weeks many Asian markets have corrected between 7 to 10%.

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The global sell off over sovereign debt problems in Europe and an unexpected rise in jobless claims in US put investors on the defensive mode.

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The anxiety about sovereign debt in Greece, Portugal and Spain sparked a sell-off in the Euro & has led strength to US dollar.

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Foreign investors sell off is an outcome of dollar-carry-trade unwinding as when they borrowed the dollar was cheap & now it is recovering.

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Investors viewed the markets in year 2010 with confidence in view of recovery gaining momentum is now shaken over the debt problems, nascent economic recovery & confidence of the governments that stand behind the euro.

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Efforts of China to curb lending preventing overheating in economy also pose a risk to derail the global recovery.

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Back at home, the effect of turmoil in the international market also made government to think its strategy on ambitious disinvestment programme.

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🙂

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Lukewarm response to the NTPC, the much awaited issue managed to get subscription of just 1.2 times on its closing day.

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The maximum bid of 20.87 crore shares was put by Indian institution under the first time adopted French Auction route.

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This has challenged the finance Ministry hopes on the proceeds from disinvestments to make up the sliding revenue & rising expenditure.

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While it looks that PSU disinvestment may not yield desired results on market weakness, the 3G auction i.e. expected to garner Rs. 35,000 crore could be postponed to next fiscal year.

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🙂

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The fate of some of the IPO’s like NMDC, Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Ltd and Rural Electrification Corporation that are on the disinvestment agenda before March 31, looks tough to sail through, if the stock markets do not rise and big investors do not come back.

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On the contrary, Banks like Bank of Baroda & Indian Bank that were expected to raise money overseas have put now their plans on hold.

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🙂

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The good news from the external sector continued as the data showed a 9.3% annual increase in exports in December to $14.6 billion, a second consecutive month rise.

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While imports increased by 27.2% from a year earlier to $24.75 billion.

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Food inflation remained at high levels & rose to 17.56% in the week ended 23 January 2010 from 17.40% in the previous week on the back of rising pulses & potato prices.

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Markets are likely to take a closer view of the advance estimates on economic growth for the current fiscal ending March 2010 scheduled to be released on Monday.

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🙂

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In the days to come an activity in the sectors like railways, fertiliser, textiles, pharma, education, power and infrastructure may be seen on expected positive policy announcements and budgetary sops.

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It was clearly mentioned last week that world markets are going in downtrend and one should be careful in such a scenario and that one should be moving in cash.

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Now the markets have taken a very sharp fall last week due to rise in Dollar Index and fall in all asset classes.

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🙂

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The coming week might see some counter rally from lower levels.

Nifty faces resistance between 4900-5000 levels and Sensex between 16400-17000 levels.

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🙂

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If we talk about commodity markets then one can see that strengthening dollar and lack of firm global cues had pressurized commodities prices to move southward.

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Investors are selling riskier assets and putting their money in dollar as a safe haven buying.

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Debt concerns facing Greece, Portugal and Spain coupled with dollar index which is trading above the mark of 80 is most likely to compel commodities to trade lower.

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French and euro zone GDP, USD advance retail sales, USD U. of Michigan Confidence will give further direction to commodities.

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Investors should keep an eye on gold – silver ratio.

It was 58:1 few months back, now reached to 67:1 on MCX, heading towards the level of 70:1.

It is demonstrating more selling in silver.

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🙂

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Stay Tuned for More on weekly updates.

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please click here

Weekly Update of The Market (1st – 5th February) Part 1

Hello Friends, here, we bring you the weekly overview of the Indian as well as of the Global economy and along with the latest global business and industry updates.

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Weekly Update of The Market (1st - 5th February) Part 1

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A bout of volatility was witnessed in the domestic market throughout the week due to

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1.  F&O expiry,

2.  unfavorable global cues because of gloomy earnings forecast,

3.  anxiety about China‘s monetary tightening,

4.  the deteriorating finances of countries ranging from Greece to Japan and

5.  India’s central bank‘s decision to raise the CRR to 5.75.

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🙂

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But on later days of the week, US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged boosted sentiments of global markets.

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Closer home, investors also heaved a sigh of relief as the central bank kept key interest rates unchanged at the quarterly policy review indicating that it would maintain a balance between price stability and growth and raised its GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.5 %.

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The RBI at its quarterly monetary policy review raised CRR by 75 basis points to suck out excess liquidity from the banking system to the tune of Rs 36000 crore.

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On the flip side, the challenges that RBI foresees for the economy is fiscal consolidation.

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The central bank lifted its wholesale price index inflation forecast for the end of the fiscal year in March 2010 to 8.5% from its earlier forecast of 6.5%.

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RBI also said it expected inflation to moderate starting in July 2010, assuming a normal monsoon and global oil prices holding at current levels.

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Moreover, US Federal Reserve too maintained interest rates at near zero levels and vowed to do so for an extended period of time.

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Additionally, it also signaled its intention of unwinding the massive monetary stimulus that it had undertaken during the peak of the crisis.

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🙂

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Stay Tuned for More on weekly updates.

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please click here

Wise Money Weekly Update of The Market (Week: 25th – 29th January)

Hello Friends, here, we bring you the weekly view of the Indian as well as of the Global markets and latest global business and industry updates..

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Wise Money Weekly Update of The Market (Week: 25th - 29th January)

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A sell-off in global stocks, disappointment from key corporate earnings like L&T, possibilities of further monetary tightening by China and US president‘s proposal to put new restrictions on big banks weighed heavily on the domestic markets.

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In the forthcoming week, domestic markets are expected to remain volatile as traders roll positions in the derivative segment from January 2010 series to February 2010 series.

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Markets will also take cue from monetary policy which is scheduled to come out on January 29.

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Though tightening is largely expected by way of Cash Reserve Ratio hike as RBI has already started the first phase of ‘exit’ in its October 2009 policy statement but there is a belief if the RBI sucks out some liquidity, it may not raise interest rates, since liquidity is excess in the system.

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The Indian food price inflation is largely due to supply constraints.

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But going ahead anticipation of decline in food price inflation & lower borrowing from government in future because of huge money raising plans through disinvestment are some of the factors that are likely to determine RBI stance on increasing policy rates.

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The widely watched wholesale price index rose an annual 7.3% in December 2009, its highest since November 2008 and accelerating from a 4.8 % rise in November 2009.

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Food prices rose 16.81 % in the 12 months to 9 January 2010, easing from nearly 20 % in early December.

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On the Global economic front, GDP of China returned to double-digit growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 at 10.7 percent, and over the full year GDP surpassed the government’s target of eight percent.

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Back at home, domestic economy, which grew at 7.9% in the September quarter, is expected to grow 6-6.5% in the December quarter.

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The World Bank has raised its forecast at 2.7% for global growth in 2010.

Moreover it has raised its forecast for US growth in 2010 to 2.5% growth, after predicting 1.8% in June.

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Japan’s gross domestic product will expand 1.3% this year, more than the 1% predicted in June.

The euro area’s economy is forecasted to grow 1%, compared with the earlier estimate of 0.5% expansion.

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🙂

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Stay Tuned for More on this..

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please click here

Hello Friends, here, we bring you the weekly view of the Indian as well as of the Global markets and latest global business and industry updates.

China May Become World Largest Economy by 2030 : Report

China May Pip USA to Become World largest Economy by 2030

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As per the latest report by Deutsche Bank, the economic and financial status of emerging market economies such as India and China will continue to do well in the future and the recent downturn will help accelerate the trend.

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Report also suggests that the (BRIC) economies” increasing size will be making itself increasingly felt in the world markets, ranging from trade and investment to commodity markets.

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Meanwhile, the BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China are likely to achieve significant growth in future.

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Meanwhile, BRIC nations are already ranked among the top 10 on a PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) basis.

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The impressive economic growth rates and greater participation in global trade and financial flows by the BRIC economies are re-shaping the global economic and financial architecture of these economies.

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It is expected that with the constant present growth of the BRIC economies, political, economic and financial realities  of the world is going to change to the extent that China will replace the US as the World’’s largest economy by 2030.

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All the four big BRIC economies carry at least one investment grade rating, currently, at the same time.

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Moreover, China’’s and Russia’’s international status has been enhanced due to their substantial holdings of government controlled foreign assets.

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