Archive for the ‘Asset management’ Category

Market Experts Expect IT Stocks to Do Well During 3rd Quarter

Market Experts Expects IT Stocks to Do Well During 3rd Quarter

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With IT Biggy Infosys showing up with better-than-expected results and revenue guidance, IT stocks have turn out to be hot picks.

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This is owing to the factor that market participants are now anticipating good third quarter results on improved global demand scenario.

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Month-to-date, the BSE IT index has returned 4.16 per cent against a marginal 0.51 per cent advance in the BSE Sensex.

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Where IT biggies have climbed as much as 5 per cent during the period, mid-cap and small-cap IT stocks have followed the cues even better.

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“The Infosys numbers have set the tone for the IT sector. The numbers posted by the sector for the third quarter of financial year 2009-10 are encouraging and even the guidance is optimistic.

The analysis shows that revenue visibility has gone up,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of research at SMC Capitals.

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Financial Technologies shot up 20.55 per cent. Tech Mahindra climbed 14.77 per cent.

Patni Computer jumped 7.20 per cent followed by Polaris Software, Rolta India, MindTree and MphasiS, which climbed 4.67 per cent, 4.11 per cent and 0.33 per cent respectively.

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However, MphasiS and Redington India inched down 0.41 per cent and 0.45 per cent respectively.

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“We expect IT service companies to be more optimistic regarding the macro environment compared with the stance in the previous few quarters.

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While 2010 IT budgets are likely to be flat with a positive bias, managements might not provide significant clarity on them,” the brokerage added.

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The years 2009 and 2010 underline a significant recovery in business optimism and economic conditions.

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Thunuguntla feels signs of recovery have also started appearing in the US and in the global financial sector, which was the genesis of the financial crisis.

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In such a situation, there is no reason why the Indian IT sector shouldn’t do well during the third quarter.

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Understandably, the sector’s fortunes are linked to the value and fluctuation in the dollar.

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A strengthening dollar can put pressure on the profitability margins of IT companies.

But, IT volumes still remain strong, and sector should see healthy performance.

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🙂

India’s Total External Debt Touched $243 Billion

India’s Total External Debt Touched $243 Billion

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India’s total external debt rose by 8.1% to $242.8 billion at the end of September 2009 from $224.6 billion at March-end 2009.

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The long term debt increased by 10.6% to $200.4 billion, while short term debt declined by 2.3% to $42.4 billion.

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Most of the increase in the debt ($8.3 billion or 45.6%) is due to depreciation of dollar against major global currencies, out of total increase of $18.2 billion, according to a finance ministry statement.

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The total external financial assets increased by $21 billion to $378.6 billion at September end 2009 over the previous quarter.

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Total external financial liabilities increased significantly by $32.7 billion over the previous quarter and stood at $476.4 billion at Septemberend 2009.

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Direct investment and Portfolio investment in India increased by $11 billion and $10.2 billion respectively over the previous quarter.

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Long-term debt at $ 220.4 billion accounted for 82.5% of the total debt.

As a positive development, India’s short term debt, which had increased sharply between March 2005 and March 2008, went down by $985 million to $42.4 billion at September-end.

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The decline was seen in all the components of short-term debt except trade related credits for period above six months and up to one year

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Short-term credit, that is a credit of less than 180 days, short-term liabilities of banking system and investment of foreign central banks and other global financial institutions in government’s treasury bills is considered bad for economy.

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🙂

FLASHBACK 2009


For India, 2009, been a great year with the return of a stable government at centre, good FII inflow, 80% increase in the Indian stock market and less terror attacks. But globally, H1N1 influenza and a series of bankruptcy by some big international giants are some events, which we never want to happen again.

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Putting behind the worst annual performance ever, Indian equities were on a roll in 2009, catapulting a key index by more than 80 percent, to close the year with one of the best gains among emerging markets.

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At closing bell Thursday, the 30-share benchmark sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) was ruling at 17,464.81 points with an impressive gain of 7,817.5 points, or 81.03 percent, over the previous year’s close at 9,647.31 points.

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This was the best annual performance since 1999 and was in sharp contrast to 2008, when the Sensex ended with a hefty loss of 10,639.68 points or 52.45 percent making it the third-worst performing equities index among emerging markets.

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The story was no different at the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the other major bourse in the country, where the broader 50-scrip S&P CNX Nifty gained a hefty 2,241.9 points or 75.76 percent when it closed at 5,201.05 points Thursday.

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The main factors that made key indices rise like a Phoenix was resilience of the Indian economy and impressive growth despite global slowdown that also reflected in corporate earnings and the return of the foreign institutional funds.

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According to markets watchdog, the Securities and Exchange Board of India, such overseas funds pumped about $17.46 billion into the Indian stock markets in 2009, as opposed to a net sale worth $13.135 billion for the first time in over a decade..

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‘The performance in 2009 surpassed the expectations of even the most optimistic person. There were not many places left for foreign funds to invest and India was among the few attractive destinations,’ said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capitals.

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Even as the Sensex gained 7,817.5 points, some of the 13 sector-specific indices stood out because of their performance — the metals index appreciated the most, up 233.68 percent, while auto followed with a gain of 204.16 points..

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Similarly, the indices for information technology was up 132.78 percent, capital goods gained 104.26 percent, consumer durables rose 97.8 percent, banking gained 83.9 percent, state-run enterprises inflated 80.54 percent, power moved up by 74.3 percent.

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On the whole, the year started on a promising note with the government unveiling a second dose of fiscal stimulus to help the economy weather the adverse impact of a slowdown in the global economy — touted as the worst in eight decades.

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As a result, the Sensex rallied till Jan 6 and gained 7.13 percent in just three days of trading. But then came the confession of a multi-million dollar fraud by Satyam Computer founder B. Ramalinga Raju, triggering a 7.25 percent fall in just one session.

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Till February, the barometer index was oscillating between 9,000-odd points and 10,300-levels. But as signs of a prolonged economic recession receded the world over, Indian equities found more takers and reflected in steady rise in the index.

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By the beginning of May it was trading comfortably around the 12,000-point mark and gave a thumping welcome to the electoral victory of the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance — that even saw suspension of trading as indices hit the upper circuit twice.

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On that eventful day of May 18, the Sensex stood at 14,284.21 points, gaining 2,110.79 points, or 17.33 percent, over the previous close, while Nifty also rose 17.3 percent, or 636.4 points, to close at 4,308.05 points.

The remaining months of the year saw a steady rise in the index with interim corrections even as events like the presentation of an industry-friendly national budget and a high growth for the economy during the second quarter boosted investor sentiments.

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Looking at individual stocks that go into the Sensex basket, the top five gainers during 2009 were Tata Motors, up 398.33 percent at Rs.792.60; Mahindra and Mahindra, up 293.23 percent at Rs.1,080.80; Sterlite Industries, up 230.45 percent at Rs.861.65; Hindalco, up 211.23 percent at Rs.160.75; and Maruti Suzuki, up 199.88 percent at Rs.1,559.65.

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Only three stocks ended lower — Bharti Airtel was down 54.02 percent at Rs.328.80; Reliance Communications was down 23.92 percent at Rs.172.90; and Reliance Industries which ended lower since the company declared a 1:1 bonus.

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Looking ahead, the markets expect some more action once the government’s divestment programme gets underway even as investors have their fingers crossed on when the Sensex will breach the magical 21,000 mark.

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So, overall, the year 2009 has been one of the most significant chapters in the stock market growth with an increase of 80% in its value. Further, we keep our spirits high on FM’s comment that Indian economy can grow at 7.75% in FY10.

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GST set to reduce the burden of Indirect Taxes on people.

GST set to reduce the burden of Indirect Taxes on people

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The Finance Ministry maintained that the net burden of indirect taxes on the people would reduce by 25-30% when the proposed Goods and Services Tax (GST) is introduced from April 1, 2010.

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However, it is said that real estate would also be brought under the GST scanner and deliberations in this regard between the Centre and the States were almost conclusive.

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The draft legislation on GST had been referred to legal experts and would be finalized in order to facilitate the government to achieve target of implementation of Goods and Services Tax as has been promised by April, 1, 2010.


Meanwhile, it is said that there were divergent views expressed by the Empowered Committee of State Finance Ministers    and the Thirteenth Finance Commission (TFC) on certain issues relating to GST,  but noted that these were on the verge of finding a solution.

On the other hand, according to the implementation programme,

the government plans to introduce the GST regime from the new fiscal to replace excise duty and service tax at the Central level

and the VAT at the State level, apart from others levies like cess, surcharges and local taxes as currently applicable on good and services.

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🙂

IRDA Allows Banks to Sell Insurance Products of Multiple Companies

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The Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority (IRDA) is likely to permit banks to sell insurance products of more than one company.

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The move will allow banks to retail insurance products and not just be distributor for one insurer.

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A panel, set up by the IRDA to look into bancassurance, is finalizing its report, an IRDA official said.

From 2002, IRDA had allowed bancassurance.

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A bank was allowed to act as an agent for only one life and one general insurer according to the norms.

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Bancassurance is a delivery channel in which an insurance company uses a bank”s sales channel to sell its products.

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At present, bancassurance garners more than a quarter of the entire premium collected by the insurance industry.

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Combining scheduled commercial banks, co-operative banks and regional rural development banks, India has close to 1,70,000 bank branches.

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IRDA has been concerned about tie-ups between banks and insurance companies and is considering a regulatory framework for an open architecture for such arrangements

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🙂

Mid-cap and Small-cap Shares Outperformed Blue Chips in 2009

mid-cap and small-cap shares outperformed blue chips

2009 was a year when stock market minnows beat the big boys of Dalal Street.

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🙂

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This year, mid-cap and small-cap shares outperformed blue chips, setting the momentum for 2010.

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Stocks of companies with medium and small market capitalisations shot up more significantly than the scrips with larger valuations.

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This was all happening when stock market  was witnessing a recovery across the board in the year.

Market experts said the smaller capitalization stocks do not need huge amounts of investments to rally and so managed to outperform their peers in the benchmark index, Sensex in the year.

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According to an analysis of the performance of mid-cap and small cap indices on the Bombay Stock Exchange, the small-cap index has given a return of as much as 115 per cent, while the mid-cap index has gained nearly 100 per cent so far in 2009.

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In comparison to the performance of its smaller peers, the 30-share benchmark index, Sensex, gave a return of 75.3 per cent to investors.

“The rally in the mid-cap and small-cap have been stronger than that of the large cap index of Sensex.

Mid-cap and small-cap indices comprise stocks require relatively smaller investment as they are available at cheap rates in the market,”

SMC Capitals Ltd Equity Head Jagannadham Thunuguntla said.

The mid-cap and small cap indices track the performance of companies with market capitalisations that are a fifth or tenth of that of blue chip firms.

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🙂

Domestic Realty Companies Faces Challenges Post Dubai Storm

Domestic Realty Companies faces Challenges Post Dubai Debt fallout

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Domestic realty companies which are planning to tap the primary markets may not see a smooth sailing as the Dubai debt crisis is likely to undermine investor confidence in the sector.

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As many as nine realty companies, including Emmar MGF, have filed their draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the market regulator Sebi aiming to raise about Rs 15,000 crore.

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“It will not be surprising if some realty companies defer their share sale plan.

The Dubai debt crisis will not give any positive signal to investors in realty companies and IPOs of companies like Emmar MGF will face huge challenge,”

SMC Capitals‘ equity head Jagannadham Thunuguntla said.

🙂

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As per the DRHP filed with the Sebi, nine relators are planning to raise an estimated Rs 15,000 crore through the initial public offers (IPOs).

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This includes Emmar MGF’s Rs 4,000 crore issue, followed by Sahara Prime City (Rs 3,400 crore), Lodha Developers (Rs 2,700 crore), BPTP (Rs 2,000 crore), and Godrej Properties (Rs 500 crore).

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Last month, the Dubai government-owned investment company Dubai World asked for a six-month delay on repaying its $ 59 billion debts.