Archive for the ‘Asset management’ Category

HOW IMPORTANT IS INTEREST RATE?

Essentially, interest is nothing more than the cost someone pays for the use of someone else’s money. In India, an individual willing to purchase a home uses bank’s money (through a mortgage) and in return pays interest to the bank for the privilege or the credit card user borrows money for the short term in order to buy something right away. But the very question that comes to everyone’s mind is how to determine where the rates are heading & what impact will it have?

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So in order to find where the interest rates are heading all one needs to do is to look at the deposits & loans advances of the banks. If banks credit growth is more than its deposits then banks may raise the deposit rates or may increase the lending rates in order to match the asset & liability mismatch. When the Central Bank (RBI) feels that the credit growth has started picking up & is higher than its target levels, RBI tinkers with its policy rates gives signals to the commercial banks to review the interest rates be it on the deposit front or on the lending front.

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Effects of the rising interest rates On individuals

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The first indirect effect of an increased rate is that banks increase the rates that they charge their customers to borrow money. Individuals are affected through increases to credit card and mortgage interest rates, especially if they carry a floating interest rate. This has the effect of decreasing the amount of money consumers can spend. After all, people still have to pay their EMI’s, and when these installments become more expensive, households are left with less disposable income.

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On the Corporates financials

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Corporates too borrow money from banks to run and expand their operations. When the banks make borrowing more expensive, corporates may  not borrow at all or may not borrow at the same pace that they were doing when the rates were lower. Less business spending can slow down the growth of a company, resulting in decreases in profit.

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Even businesses are also indirectly affected as a result of the actions of the individual consumers as individuals are left with less disposable income which affects the company’s top & bottom lines (that is, revenue and profits). Apart from having an indirect affect businesses are affected in a more direct way as well.

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On GDP Growth

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The government essentially has two weapons in its arsenal to help guide the economy towards a path of stable growth without excessive inflation; monetary policy and fiscal policy. Fiscal policy comes from the government in the form of taxation and federal budgeting policies. While fiscal policy can be very effective in specific cases to spur growth in the economy, most market watchers look to monetary policy to do most of the heavy lifting in keeping the economy in a stable growth pattern. Monetary policy is defined as any action to limit or increase the amount of money that is circulating in the economy. That means the central bank (RBI) can make money easier or harder to come by, thereby encouraging spending to spur the economy and constricting access to capital when growth rates seem to be approaching unsustainable levels.

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Stock Price Effects

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Clearly, changes in the rates affect the behavior of consumers and business; hence the stock market is also affected. Remember that one method of valuing a company is to take the sum of all the expected future cash flows from that company discounted back to the present. To arrive at a stock’s price, take the sum of the future discounted cash flow and divide it by the number of shares available. This price fluctuates as a result of the different expectations that people have about the company at different times and are willing to buy or sell shares at different prices. If the company is seen as cutting back on its growth spending or is making less profit – either through higher debt expenses or less revenue from consumers then, the estimated amount of future cash flows will drop. All else being equal, this will lower the price of the company’s stock.

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Investment Effects

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With a lowered expectation in the growth and future cash flows of the company, investors will not get as much growth from stock price appreciation, making stock ownership less desirable. Furthermore, investing in stocks can be viewed as too risky as compared to other investments. When the central bank raises its rate, newly offered government securities, such T- bills and bonds, are often viewed as the safest investments and will usually experience a corresponding increase in interest rates. In other words, the “risk-free” rate of return goes up, making these investments more desirable.

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Conclusion

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We should keep in mind, however, that these factors and results are all interrelated. What we described above are very broad interactions, which can play out in innumerable ways. Interest rates are not the only determinant of stock prices and there are many considerations that go into stock prices and the general trend of the market – an increased interest rate is only one of them. Therefore, one can never say with confidence that an interest rate hike will have an overall negative effect on stock prices.

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Stay Tuned for More Updates :)

NEWS ROUND UP 22nd – 26th March

Hello Friends here we come up with the News Round Up from various categories.

Economy

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·The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly raised interest rates from record-low levels for the first time since it began cutting in 2008, citing intensifying inflationary pressures and a steady economic recovery. The central bank raised the repo rate, the rate at which it lends to banks to 5.00 percent from 4.75 percent and reverse repo rate, the rate which it absorbs funds from the system to 3.50 percent from 3.25 percent with immediate effect.

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·India’s Wholesale price inflation accelerated to 9.89 percent in February from a year ago, above the Reserve Bank of India’s end March projection of 8.5 percent and higher than the 8.56 percent level recorded in January this year.

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·India’s food price index rose 16.30 percent in the 12 months to March 6, while the fuel index was up 12.68 percent. The rise in the food price index was lower than an annual rise of 17.81 percent in the previous week.

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Pharmaceutical

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·Elder Pharmaceuticals had increased its stake in Bulgarian subsidiary Elder Biomeda AD to 61 per cent from the present 51 per cent, as part of its strategy to strengthen its presence in the European market. The Rs 600- crore turnover Elder Pharma did not disclose the deal size. In April 2008, Elder had formed Biomeda AD in Bulgaria, to acquire three Bulgarian healthcare companies belonging to the local Biomeda group.

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Metal

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·Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren unit will acquire a 75 per cent stake in MSK Projects, marking its foray into infrastructure. Welspun will invest a total of Rs 400 crore, of which Rs 200 crore will be infused directly into MSK.

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Realty/ Construction.

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·Punj Lloyd has bagged a project worth $40 million (nearly Rs 181 crore) from Abu Dhabi Gas Industries (GASCO) for infrastructure related works.

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The company has secured a letter of award for engineering, procurement and construction works in UAE from GASCO.

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·Subhash Projects & Marketing has bagged two orders worth Rs 475.34 crore for infrastructure related works. The company, along with Kirloskar Brothers Ltd, has bagged a contract worth Rs 439.35 crore from Bangalore Water supply Sewerage Board for civil and electromechanical works.

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·· Hindustan Construction Company (HCC) acquired a controlling stake in Swiss real estate firm Karl Steiner AG in an all-cash deal for around Rs 150 crore (Swiss Francs 35 million), a move that will pave way for the company to enter the European and Gulf markets.

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·PT Madhucon Indonesia, a subsidiary of the Hyderabad-based infrastructure company Madhucon Projects Ltd, has been granted a new coal mining business permit for exploration of 30,970 hectares at Mauraduwa in south Sumatra, Indonesia.

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Oil & Gas

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·GAIL India plans to transit 21 per cent more natural gas through its pipelines at 114.8 million cubic meters per day in 2010-11 fiscal. The company in a press statement that it has set a target of transmitting 114.8 mmscmd of natural gas from domestic fields and imported LNG in 2010-11 fiscal as opposed to moving 94.8 mmscmd during current fiscal.

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Capital Goods

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·McNally Bharat Engineering Company has bagged an order worth Rs 173.2 crore for works at Mahanadi Coalfields in Sambalpur, Orissa. This is the third order that the company has bagged within a week, the first two being from NPCC and SAIL.

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·Larsen & Toubro (L&T) has bagged a project worth Rs 2,035 crore from ONGC Mangalore Petrochemicals Ltd to set up an aromatics complex at Mangalore special economic zone.

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Automobile.

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·Mahindra & Mahindra has joined the long list of corporate houses looking to obtain a banking licence after the finance minister’s budget speech revealed that banking regulator RBI was planning to allow more players in the sector. A top executive of the $6.3-billion group that it was planning to seek a banking licence for its non-banking finance company Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services (MMFSL).

Take Control Of Your Golden Years Financial Planning Final Part:)

Continuing the final part 🙂

Sumit’s colleague, Ankit, who is 30 years old, commences his retirement planning at the same time. Given that he also aims to retire at the age of 60 years, he has an investment horizon of 30 years. Assuming, like Sumit, he invests Rs 50,000 every month @ 10% per annum, he will accumulate Rs 11.30 crore at retirement. On the same lines, Piyush, Sumit’s other colleague, commences investing at the age of 35 with an investment horizon of 25 years to accumulate Rs 6.63 crore at the age of 60 years (at Rs 50,000 per month @ 10% per annum).

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Given that all three of them have the same monthly investment (Rs 50,000), which is invested at the same rate (10% per annum), the difference can be attributed completely to Sumit’s early start vis-à-vis his colleagues. Ankit who has an investment tenure that is lower than Sumit’s by only 5 years accumulates a corpus that is nearly 40% lower than Sumit’s. Piyush, whose investment tenure is lower than Sumit’s by 10 years, accumulates approx 65% lower than him on retirement. A 5-Yr delay in retirement planning sounds like a small difference, but the power of compounding magnifies it to gigantic proportions.

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CHALK OUT YOUR CORPUS 🙂

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You’ll have to keep a realistic goal that you can realise in the time you have. Don’t expect that the zeroes will multiply automatically in your savings. See how much you can afford to save every month. Of course, if you start at a late age you will have to increase your savings substantially, so cut down on any superfluous expenses.

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Prepare a budget which lists what you spend on necessities so that you know how much your monthly/annual expenditure will be in the future. Account for inflation too. Keep a rough estimate of 7-8% inflation every year. Also, consider expenses that are bound to increase, such as medical and transport expenses. Then again, calculate the expenses that may cease to exist, such as your children’s education.

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DON’T TOUCH THOSE SAVINGS

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More often than not, people have combined savings, that is, they save money for all their financial goals together— retirement, children’s education, their marriage, buying a home, etc. Invariably, you spend more on your initial financial goal and end up depleting your savings. By the time you retire, you have barely any money left. Overcome this obstacle.

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Build your retirement corpus separately, and do not touch it. It’s always better to earmark the time period for your goals and make separate portfolios for each of these goals. For instance, your children’s education may be a short-term goal (compared with retirement, that is). Since retirement is a long-term goal, if you are starting early you can afford to take risks and invest primarily in equities. But if retirement is a short-term goal, that is, only 5 years away, you won’t be able to take any risks. You’ll be more concerned about security. In that case, invest primarily in debt instruments.

MAKE A PLAN

Before you embark on saving for retirement, you must have a plan in place. While a plan may sound fancy and even intimidating, rest assured it is not all that complicated. Your retirement plan is simply your wish list of how you wish to spend your twilight years. Among other expenses, when you plan for retirement, you must make it a point to set aside money for medical expenses and contingencies, as any retirement plan without them is incomplete.

While you have to decide how you wish to lead your life in retirement, your financial planner will help  you translate that dream in numbers. He will put a number to everything i.e. your dream house, vehicle, post-retirement income, medical expenses and contingencies among other inputs. He will tell you how much you need to save and where to invest your savings so as to achieve your retirement corpus. In other words, he will outline a roadmap and more importantly, will implement the same for you.

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TRACK AND REVIEW YOUR PLAN

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Once the plan is outlined and implemented you have to still ensure that you are on track at all times to meet your targeted return at the desired level of risk. This calls for a periodic review of your investment plan. Over time as you approach retirement; reduce allocation to risky assets like stocks and/or equity funds in favour of more conservative avenues like fixed deposits.

The future is closer than you think. Pick targets early and give them the right kind of support to take control of those golden years.

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For any financial planning queries, email us at financialplanning@smcwealth.com

COMMODITY NEWS DIGEST

  • Farmers raising the Rabi crop under Krishna Delta this year will fall due to short of water by 16 tmcft (thousand million cubic feet).

  • Government has decided to temporarily wind up its sale of wheat for bulk consumers by March-end in states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.

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  • Monsanto’s Bt cotton fails to control pests in 4 Gujarat districts.

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  • The validity period for sale and delivery/dispatch of nonlevy sugar has been extended on a weekly basis to the weeks ending March15, 22, 31 and April 7 respectively.

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  • The Centre could extend the ban on pulses exports until March 31, 2011 besides allowing duty-free imports for another year.

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  • The data received from States reveal that about 278.17 lakh hectares wheat has been sown as compared to last year’s coverage of 275.89 lakh hectares.

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  • Rice procurement by state-run agencies has dropped by just 3.25% to 23.8 million tonnes till now in the 2009-10 crop marketing season.

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  • British retail sales recovered last month from January’s snow-related slide.

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  • Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly declined for a second month in March, 2010.

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Stay Tuned for More updates

Domestic Economy Rolls as Corporate India Offers 40% More Bonus Shares

Domestic Economy Rolls as Corporate India Offers 40% More Bonus Shares

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Issue of bonus shares by Corporate India to its shareholders in the first 10 months of the fiscal has shot up 40% over the total during the fiscal ended March ‘09, after declining for two straight years.

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This interesting jump in bonus issues indicates positive sentiment of the corporate sector to serve a larger equity base.

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Companies like Britannia, TCS, Reliance Industries, Adani Enterprises, Jindal Steel, Divi’s Lab, JP Associates etc  have  issued bonus shares in the April ‘09-January ‘10 period.

There are as many as 61 companies which have done so.

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Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head with Delhi-based merchant bank SMC Capitals, said:  “The increase in companies doling out bonus equity to its shareholders reflects that the domestic economy is on the path of recovery.”

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Corporate India has got the confidence to expand equity capital base and issue bonus shares owing to the fact that they have performed very well this fiscal.

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Bonus issue is an offer of free additional shares to existing shareholders.

This is one of the ways of rewarding shareholders, who largely benefit from capital gains.

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A company may decide to distribute further shares as an alternative to increasing the dividend payout.

It is also known as a “scrip issue” or “capitalization issue”.

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The number of companies issuing bonus shares declined more than a quarter after hitting a peak in 2006-07 to 72 firms in 2007-08 and shrunk further to just 44 companies for the year ended March ‘09.

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This came after three consecutive years of rise in number of bonus issues, when more listed firms announced a bonus bonanza in line with the bull run of the stock market.

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Bonus shares are issued by companies through capitalization of their free reserves.

When a company announces bonus issue, it is an indication of its management’s confidence to serve a larger equity base.

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Mutual Funds : Marginalise Your Investment Risk

Hello Friends here we come up with another write up on “SMC Gyan Series”.

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Mutual Funds : Marginalise Your Investment Risk

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Topic is “Mutual Funds : Marginalise Your Investment Risk
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Mutual funds are the best investment tool for the retail investor as it offers the twin benefits of good returns and safety as compared with other avenues such as bank deposits or stock investing.

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Choose the wrong fund and you would have been better off keeping money in a bank fixed deposit.

Keep in mind the points listed below and you could at least marginalize your investment risk:

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1) Past performance –

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While past performance is not an indicator of the future it does throw some light on the investment philosophies of the fund, how it has performed in the past and the kind of returns it is offering to the investor over a period of time.

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Also check out the two-year and one-year returns for consistency.

How did these funds perform in the bull and bear markets of the immediate past?

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Tracking the performance in the bear market is particularly important because the true test of a portfolio is often revealed in how little it falls in a bad market.

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2) Know your fund manager

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The success of a fund to a great extent depends on the fund manager.

The same fund managers manage most successful funds.

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Ask before investing, has the fund manager or strategy changed recently?

For instance, the portfolio manager who generated the fund’s successful performance may no longer be managing the fund.

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3) Does it suit your risk profile?

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Certain sector-specific schemes come with a high-risk  high-return tag.

Such plans are suspect to crashes in case the industry loses the market men fancy.

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If the investor is totally risk averse he can opt for pure debt schemes with little or no risk.

Most prefer the balanced schemes which invest in the equity and debt markets.

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Growth and pure equity plans give greater returns than pure debt plans but their risk is higher.

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4) Read the prospectus

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The prospectus says a lot about the fund.

A reading of the fund’s prospectus is a must to learn about its investment strategy and the risk that it will expose you to.

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Funds with higher rates of return may take risks that are beyond your comfort level and are inconsistent with your financial goals.

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But remember that all funds carry some level of risk.

Just because a fund invests in does not mean it does not have significant risk.

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Thinking about your long-term investment strategies and tolerance for risk can help you decide what type of fund is best suited for you.

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5) How will the fund affect the diversification of your portfolio?

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When choosing a mutual fund, you should consider how your interest in that fund affects the overall diversification of your investment portfolio.

Maintaining a diversified and balanced portfolio is key to maintaining an acceptable level of risk.

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6) What it costs you?

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A fund with high costs must perform better than a low-cost fund to generate the same returns for you.

Even small differences in fees can translate into large differences in returns over time.

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Finally, don’t pick a fund simply because it has shown a spurt in value in the current rally.

Ferret out information of a fund for at least three years.

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The one thing to remember while investing in equity funds is that it makes no sense to get in and out of a fund with each turn of the market.

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Like stocks, the right equity mutual fund will pay off big — if you have the patience.

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Similarly, it makes little sense to hold on to a fund that lags behind the total market year after year.

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SMC Global Securities : Money Wise Be Wise !

Market Experts Expect IT Stocks to Do Well During 3rd Quarter

Market Experts Expects IT Stocks to Do Well During 3rd Quarter

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With IT Biggy Infosys showing up with better-than-expected results and revenue guidance, IT stocks have turn out to be hot picks.

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This is owing to the factor that market participants are now anticipating good third quarter results on improved global demand scenario.

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Month-to-date, the BSE IT index has returned 4.16 per cent against a marginal 0.51 per cent advance in the BSE Sensex.

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Where IT biggies have climbed as much as 5 per cent during the period, mid-cap and small-cap IT stocks have followed the cues even better.

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“The Infosys numbers have set the tone for the IT sector. The numbers posted by the sector for the third quarter of financial year 2009-10 are encouraging and even the guidance is optimistic.

The analysis shows that revenue visibility has gone up,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of research at SMC Capitals.

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Financial Technologies shot up 20.55 per cent. Tech Mahindra climbed 14.77 per cent.

Patni Computer jumped 7.20 per cent followed by Polaris Software, Rolta India, MindTree and MphasiS, which climbed 4.67 per cent, 4.11 per cent and 0.33 per cent respectively.

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However, MphasiS and Redington India inched down 0.41 per cent and 0.45 per cent respectively.

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“We expect IT service companies to be more optimistic regarding the macro environment compared with the stance in the previous few quarters.

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While 2010 IT budgets are likely to be flat with a positive bias, managements might not provide significant clarity on them,” the brokerage added.

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The years 2009 and 2010 underline a significant recovery in business optimism and economic conditions.

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Thunuguntla feels signs of recovery have also started appearing in the US and in the global financial sector, which was the genesis of the financial crisis.

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In such a situation, there is no reason why the Indian IT sector shouldn’t do well during the third quarter.

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Understandably, the sector’s fortunes are linked to the value and fluctuation in the dollar.

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A strengthening dollar can put pressure on the profitability margins of IT companies.

But, IT volumes still remain strong, and sector should see healthy performance.

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🙂

India’s Total External Debt Touched $243 Billion

India’s Total External Debt Touched $243 Billion

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India’s total external debt rose by 8.1% to $242.8 billion at the end of September 2009 from $224.6 billion at March-end 2009.

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The long term debt increased by 10.6% to $200.4 billion, while short term debt declined by 2.3% to $42.4 billion.

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Most of the increase in the debt ($8.3 billion or 45.6%) is due to depreciation of dollar against major global currencies, out of total increase of $18.2 billion, according to a finance ministry statement.

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The total external financial assets increased by $21 billion to $378.6 billion at September end 2009 over the previous quarter.

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Total external financial liabilities increased significantly by $32.7 billion over the previous quarter and stood at $476.4 billion at Septemberend 2009.

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Direct investment and Portfolio investment in India increased by $11 billion and $10.2 billion respectively over the previous quarter.

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Long-term debt at $ 220.4 billion accounted for 82.5% of the total debt.

As a positive development, India’s short term debt, which had increased sharply between March 2005 and March 2008, went down by $985 million to $42.4 billion at September-end.

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The decline was seen in all the components of short-term debt except trade related credits for period above six months and up to one year

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Short-term credit, that is a credit of less than 180 days, short-term liabilities of banking system and investment of foreign central banks and other global financial institutions in government’s treasury bills is considered bad for economy.

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FLASHBACK 2009


For India, 2009, been a great year with the return of a stable government at centre, good FII inflow, 80% increase in the Indian stock market and less terror attacks. But globally, H1N1 influenza and a series of bankruptcy by some big international giants are some events, which we never want to happen again.

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Putting behind the worst annual performance ever, Indian equities were on a roll in 2009, catapulting a key index by more than 80 percent, to close the year with one of the best gains among emerging markets.

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At closing bell Thursday, the 30-share benchmark sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) was ruling at 17,464.81 points with an impressive gain of 7,817.5 points, or 81.03 percent, over the previous year’s close at 9,647.31 points.

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This was the best annual performance since 1999 and was in sharp contrast to 2008, when the Sensex ended with a hefty loss of 10,639.68 points or 52.45 percent making it the third-worst performing equities index among emerging markets.

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The story was no different at the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the other major bourse in the country, where the broader 50-scrip S&P CNX Nifty gained a hefty 2,241.9 points or 75.76 percent when it closed at 5,201.05 points Thursday.

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The main factors that made key indices rise like a Phoenix was resilience of the Indian economy and impressive growth despite global slowdown that also reflected in corporate earnings and the return of the foreign institutional funds.

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According to markets watchdog, the Securities and Exchange Board of India, such overseas funds pumped about $17.46 billion into the Indian stock markets in 2009, as opposed to a net sale worth $13.135 billion for the first time in over a decade..

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‘The performance in 2009 surpassed the expectations of even the most optimistic person. There were not many places left for foreign funds to invest and India was among the few attractive destinations,’ said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capitals.

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Even as the Sensex gained 7,817.5 points, some of the 13 sector-specific indices stood out because of their performance — the metals index appreciated the most, up 233.68 percent, while auto followed with a gain of 204.16 points..

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Similarly, the indices for information technology was up 132.78 percent, capital goods gained 104.26 percent, consumer durables rose 97.8 percent, banking gained 83.9 percent, state-run enterprises inflated 80.54 percent, power moved up by 74.3 percent.

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On the whole, the year started on a promising note with the government unveiling a second dose of fiscal stimulus to help the economy weather the adverse impact of a slowdown in the global economy — touted as the worst in eight decades.

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As a result, the Sensex rallied till Jan 6 and gained 7.13 percent in just three days of trading. But then came the confession of a multi-million dollar fraud by Satyam Computer founder B. Ramalinga Raju, triggering a 7.25 percent fall in just one session.

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Till February, the barometer index was oscillating between 9,000-odd points and 10,300-levels. But as signs of a prolonged economic recession receded the world over, Indian equities found more takers and reflected in steady rise in the index.

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By the beginning of May it was trading comfortably around the 12,000-point mark and gave a thumping welcome to the electoral victory of the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance — that even saw suspension of trading as indices hit the upper circuit twice.

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On that eventful day of May 18, the Sensex stood at 14,284.21 points, gaining 2,110.79 points, or 17.33 percent, over the previous close, while Nifty also rose 17.3 percent, or 636.4 points, to close at 4,308.05 points.

The remaining months of the year saw a steady rise in the index with interim corrections even as events like the presentation of an industry-friendly national budget and a high growth for the economy during the second quarter boosted investor sentiments.

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Looking at individual stocks that go into the Sensex basket, the top five gainers during 2009 were Tata Motors, up 398.33 percent at Rs.792.60; Mahindra and Mahindra, up 293.23 percent at Rs.1,080.80; Sterlite Industries, up 230.45 percent at Rs.861.65; Hindalco, up 211.23 percent at Rs.160.75; and Maruti Suzuki, up 199.88 percent at Rs.1,559.65.

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Only three stocks ended lower — Bharti Airtel was down 54.02 percent at Rs.328.80; Reliance Communications was down 23.92 percent at Rs.172.90; and Reliance Industries which ended lower since the company declared a 1:1 bonus.

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Looking ahead, the markets expect some more action once the government’s divestment programme gets underway even as investors have their fingers crossed on when the Sensex will breach the magical 21,000 mark.

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So, overall, the year 2009 has been one of the most significant chapters in the stock market growth with an increase of 80% in its value. Further, we keep our spirits high on FM’s comment that Indian economy can grow at 7.75% in FY10.

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