Archive for October 13th, 2010

SUGAR……. “Ambas as extremidades de cana de açúcar não pode ser doce”

In Portuguese language “Ambas as extremidades de cana de açúcar não pode ser doce” means both ends of sugar cane cannot be sweet. Sugar travelling though its notorious cycle has always been continuously gathering news & issues all along these years. Starting with the sugar cycle, it follows a 3-4 years cycle with a bumper harvest resulting in higher inventory levels. Declining prices pressurizes the profits of sugar companies. Going around the downtrend in the sugar cycle starts with increased availability of sugars, decline in sugar prices. This prompts the farmers to switch over to other crops resulting in lower cane production. All these leads to higher sugar prices and the cycle turns around.

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FOREIGN NEWS

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•Mexico published a quota to import 100,000 tonnes of sugar to cover a shortfall in supply until the end of the year.

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•Tight supply supports raw sugar.

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•The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has pegged India’s sugar production at 23.6 million tonnes, marking an increase of over 26 per cent from last year.

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•Brazil crops shrivel as Amazon dries up to lowest in 47 years.

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•Brazil will harvest 639 million tons in the year started May 1, 3.2 percent less than estimated in April.

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•Australia’s 2010/11 sugar output is being threatened by heavy rain in the northeastern cane growing state of Queensland, disrupting this year’s cane crush.

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•Liffe front-month, December white sugar ends $24.20 higher at $649.80 per tonne after earlier setting a 7-month high for the front month of $661.80 a tonne.

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•Market buoyed by a fresh wave of fund buying and crop concerns in South Africa, Argentina, Mexico and Australia.

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DOMESTIC NEWS

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•Sugar production in Uttar Pradesh, may rise to 6.2 million tonnes from 5.18 million tonnes in the review period.

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•Sugar output in Karnataka is likely to decline marginally to 2.3 million tonnes this year from 2.53 million tonnes last year.

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•Sugar output in Tamil Nadu may jump sharply to 2.1 million tonnes in the 2010-11 crop year from 1.25 million tonnes last year.

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•The output in Gujarat is pegged at 1.3 million tonnes against 1.19 million tonnes last year.

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•Cane growers seek higher prices of 200 rupees ($4.49) per 100 kilograms.

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•NCDEX seeks permission to do futures trading in sugar.

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•The Government has declared lower October sugar quota at 17.50 lakh tonnes (lt) against September’s 19 lt.

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•Sugar imported from India will be tested before its sale in Pakistan, said a minister who rejected the impression that Indian sugar was substandard.

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Seasonality – Indian Scenario

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Analyzing the seasonal index of Indian sugar prices, the prices remain under the pressure till the third quarter of the year. The fourth quarter is a seasonal buying period, as the market witness a recovery because of the festive season.As far as the medium to long-term outlook is considered, the price trends in international markets would be the key determinants of future profitability with the crude oil price trends, which determine the diversion of cane crop to ethanol.

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