Weekly Update 3rd- 7th May 2010

The week started on a positive note on the back of good global tidings. Markets worldwide have gained after Greece decided to tap into the EU- IMF loan, but the rally could not be sustained and fell like nine pins as heightened sovereign debt troubles in Europe sent global markets in a bit of a tizzy.

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On the global front, FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent as the economy is still seeing high unemployment, modest income growth, employers reluctance to add to payrolls & bank lending contraction. It said that it would continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and would employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability. Japan saw unemployment rate climbing to five percent indicating job rebound may moderate. Europe equity markets fell after Standard & Poor’s downgraded three Eurozone members.

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Investors withdrew money from the Europe equity funds & debt funds saw net inflow. Closer home too, markets witnessed volatility as traders rolled over their positions in the derivatives segment from the April 2010 series to the May 2010 series. On the flip side the Q4 March 2010 corporate earnings announced so far have been good with net profit of a total of 441 companies rose 28.70% to Rs 29125 crore on 36.40% rise in sales to Rs 249959 crore in the quarter ended March 2010 over the quarter ended March 2009. The IMF is optimistic about the growth of Indian Economy. It has estimated that India’s $1.2 trillion economy will expand 8.8% this year and 8.4% next year, higher than it projected in January. While RBI expects India’s economy to expand 8% in the year ending March 2011 (FY 2011) with an upward bias expecting normal monsoon this year and sustenance of good performance of the industrial and services sectors on the back of rising domestic and external demand. The IMD has predicted normal monsoons in 2010 at 98% of Long Period Average subject to an error of (+/- 5%). Besides the passing of the Finance Bill 2010 by FM on Thursday with some minor changes in tax proposals may boost sentiment as the government has pledged to the path of fiscal consolidation rather than political opportunism.

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Overall the world markets were quite volatile in the week gone by with wild swings on both sides. Shanghai and Hang Seng could not recover from the fall though other markets recovered. Base metals also took a sharp correction. The strength in the stock markets is there more in cash stocks rather than front line heavy weight index stocks. Nifty has support between 5200-5150 levels & Sensex between 17400-17300 levels.

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Recent moves in commodities are showing that they are moving in different directions. It is indicating the state of uncertainty, where commodities are moving on their own fundamentals. Safe haven buying may keep gold in upper range. While after a steep fall, base metals may try to trade in a range.

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Approaching summer demand amid availability of ample crude stocks can keep crude oil in a range. Some agro commodities viz., pepper, jeera, chilli, cardamom, mentha etc., may surge on good overseas as well as domestic demand.

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