Archive for April, 2010

INDIAN ECONOMY – GAINING STRENGTH Part 1

Stock market reflects & discounts the overall conditions in the economy.Besides, stock prices in the market are also governed by the investor behavior & valuations. Sometimes investor’s optimism takes the market valuation to a level that it does not matches up with the actual future growth, thus becoming the basis for correction & vice- versa. It is said that “ markets may remain irrational till the life of human being”. Now let us have a look at the economy to see what lies in the future & how it is shaping up for the next leg of growth.

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Indian economy is expected to grow by 7.2% in the fiscal ended on 31st march 2010 & is projected to expand by 8.55 in the current fiscal year and 9% in the next year. The continued improvement in the sentiments of the manufacturing sector which currently contributes around 15% in GDP is likely to play a major role in taking GDP growth to double digits.

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Strong industrial recovery has been the key underlying strength behind the recovery of GDP. During April- December 2009, the index of industrial production (IIP) increased by 8.6% over the corresponding period. Factors that will drive the growth in the industrial production are:

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  • Improvement in agriculture output- Tokyo-based Research institute for global change has predicted normal monsoon rains in india for the current year. On the belief of climatic conditions will remain normal during the year we expect the improved availability of agricultural output to push up production of manufactured food products..

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  • Rising consumer demand – as the business conditions are improving & corporate are giving wage hikes, we believe this will strengthen the sense of financial security in the minds of urban middle-class. A rise in purchasing power and availability of easy and affordable loans are expected to increase the demand for durable goods like auto, consumer appliances.

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  • More availability of mining products- we expect natural gas & crude oil output would increase as the result of the efforts that are being done by companies like Reliance & Cairn India. Coal Production will also rise owing to the allocation of new coal blocks by the government. Fertilizer & Electricity sector would be the key & direct beneficiary with the improvement in the gas & coal availability.

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    Stay tuned for more on this 🙂

    Weekly Update 19th – 23rd April 2010

    After nine consecutive weeks of gains, domestic markets ended in the negative terrain in the week gone by on the concerns over interest rate tightening by the RBI in its monetary policy scheduled on 20th April coupled with weak cues from the Asian markets.

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    Moreover increase in unemployment numbers in US and China’s measures to cool its real estate market raised the uncertainty over the global economic growth. Now, Investors are much wary over the signs of overheating in China as its economy grew almost 12%, the biggest expansion since 2007, Industrial production grew 18.1% in March & retail sales increased 18%. Closer home IIP numbers for the month of February grew by 15.1% as against an annual gain of 16.7% in January, and 17.6% in December. While India’s inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index (WPI), surprisingly stayed almost unchanged in March at 9.90% as compared to 9.89% in February. However, it is expected that after the strong Industrial numbers, improving trade, healthy credit off take in the last fortnight of last financial year & high Inflation, RBI may take steps to suck liquidity by increasing Cash Reserve Ratio & give signals of higher interest rates to the banking system & industry as well by increasing both policy rates. The other concern emerging for the manufacturing growth is appreciating rupee.

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    As a major proportion of manufactured goods are meant for exports, the rise in domestic currency will arrest exporters’ margin & may result in lower export.

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    FII’s also were a bit cautious to actively participate in the market ahead of RBI’s policy review. In the current CY, FIIs have so far pumped in more than $5.42 billion, while in the month of April; they have been net buyers at $ 1.05 billion in the Indian markets. Expectation of the good corporate results is likely to play a catalyst role for the next direction of the market. World stocks & commodity markets fell across the board after the revelation of SEC announcing civil fraud charges against Goldman Sach’s. This incident is likely to have its effect on the markets in the coming week.

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    After 9 weeks of continuous rally in Indian stock markets, the rally ended last week after Nifty closed down 1.85% for the week. With world stock markets including the commodities taking a sharp correction on Friday, it seems that temporarily a top has been made in the market and one should be careful.

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    Nifty has support between 5200-5100 levels and Sensex between 17400-17200 levels.

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    On the commodity front, a range trading is expected in metals and energy.

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    Since last few weeks, bullions and base metals have been trading in upper zone but are unable to break the resistance. Once they break their resistance then only, traders’ can see a new trading range. Back at home, sharp appreciation in rupee is also locking the movements. Data from European Union is important for the week apart from PPI and housing data of US. If improvement continues then only commodities will trade in upper trading range or vice a versa. Agro commodities could be more volatile ahead of expiry of April contract on NCDEX. In agro commodities, guar could see further rise on improved fundamentals as well as technical.

    Equity News Round UP

    Economy

    •The annual rate of inflation based on the wholesale price index of food articles shot up to 17.70 per cent during the week ended 27 March 2010 from 16.35 per cent during the previous week.

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    •India’s automobile industry reported a 26.41 per cent growth in sales in 2009-10 riding on the government’s stimulus packages that perked demand, making it the second fastest growing market in the world after China.

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    •India’s first-ever auction of spectrum for third generation (3G) telephony services began on a cautious note. For a pan-India licence, the highest offer was Rs 3,919 crore on the first day, just 12 per cent higher than the base price of Rs 3,500 crore. There are six companies in the race for a pan- India licence, which spans 22 circles. These are Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Essar, Reliance Communications, Idea Cellular, Tata Teleservices and Aircel.

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    Capital Goods

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    •Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited is setting up a centre of excellence for nanotechnology with an investment of Rs 8.27 crore to explore applications in power systems and products relevant to the company.

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    •Suzlon Energy said its subsidiary REpower Systems AG has bagged a contract from an Italian company for supplying 18 wind turbines. RE power has concluded a contract for the supply of 18 wind turbines to Daunia Savignano, a subsidiary of Italian Tozzi Group.

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    •Elecon Engineering Company has bagged an order worth Rs 49.90 crore from Sical Logistics for material handling equipment. The scope of the contract includes design, engineering and commissioning of material handling equipments for New Mangalore Iron Ore Terminal.

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    •BGR Energy Systems has entered into an agreement with the Orissa government for setting up a 1,320-MW power project at an investment of Rs 6,287 crore. The company has signed a MoU with Orissa government for setting up a 1,320 MW independent power producer at Bhapur in Nayagarh district of the state at an investment of about Rs 6,287 crore.

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    Pharmaceutical

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    •Aurobindo Pharma announced that it has received final approval for Venlafaxine Hydrochloride Tablets 25 mg, 37.5 mg, 50 mg, 75 mg and 100 mg from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA).

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    •Cipla Limited, among the largest pharmaceutical companies in the country, is understood to be closing in on a strategic investment in Bangalore-based Stempeutics Research, a stem cell company developing stem cell-based medicinal products. Stem cells are used to replace or initiate the production of other cells that are damaged or missing.

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    •Biocon has fully acquired the joint venture Biocon Biopharmaceuticals from its Cuban partner CIMAB. Under the business restructuring plan, Biocon will pick up CIMAB’s 49% stake and will make Biocon Biopharmaceuticals (BBPL) a wholly owned subsidiary of Biocon.

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    Media & Entertainment

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    •PVR Ltd, a retail entertainment company, has earmarked around Rs 120 crore for setting up 60 multiplex screens across the country. Of this, 14 are already operational and the remaining will be opened by the end of this fiscal.

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    Realty & Construction

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    •IVR Prime Urban Developers has raised Rs 63 crore by selling land near Pune and Chennai. The company has sold 87.52 acres of land near Loanavala and 28 acres of land near Chennai.

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    Oil & Gas

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    •Reliance Industries (RIL) has announced that its subsidiary, Reliance Marcellus LLC has executed definitive agreements to enter into a joint venture with United Sates based Atlas Energy, Inc, of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania under which Reliance will acquire a 40% interest in Atlas’ Core Marcellus Shale acreage position.

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    •Aban Offshore has bagged a contract valued at $159 million (about Rs 716 crore) from Brunel Shell Petroleum Sendirian Berhad for the deployment of the jack-up rigs.

    COPPER…WHAT’S REALLY DRIVING THE PRICE?

    Copper is a reddish brown non-ferrous mineral which has been used for thousands of years by many cultures. The metal is closely related with silver and gold, with many properties being shared among these metals. With world population and development on the increase, demand for copper is expected to continue to build well beyond current annual consumption to:

    •conducting electricity and heat

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    •communications

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    •transporting water and gas

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    •roofing, gutters and downspouts

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    •protecting plants and crops, and as a feed supplement and

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    •Making statues and other forms of art.

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    World copper consumption is expected to grow 5.4 per cent this year, led by China which is expected to buy nearly 40 per cent of global output, industry experts told the World Copper Conference on 8th April, 2010.

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    Primary copper production starts with the extraction of copper bearing ores. There are three basic ways of copper mining: surface, underground mining and leaching.

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    Open-pit mining is the predominant mining method in the world. These are the top ten ranked mining countries.

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    IN THE GLOBALEXCHANGES

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    Three commodity exchanges provide the facilities to trade copper: The London Metal Exchange (LME), the Commodity Exchange Division of the New York Mercantile  Exchange (COMEX/NYMEX) and the Shanghai Metal Exchange (SHME). In these exchanges, prices are settled by bid and offer, reflecting the market’s perception of supply and demand of a commodity on a particular day. Exchanges also provide for warehousing facilities that enable market participants to make or take physical delivery of copper in accordance with each exchange’s criteria.

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    FACTS

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    The average LME futures price for March 2010 was US$7,790 per tonne, almost double from the March 2009 average of US$4,040 per tonne. The 2010 high and low copper prices through the end of March were US$7,870 and US$7,265 per tonne, respectively. As of the end of March 2010, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges LME, totalled 514325 tonnes.

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    ICGS PREDICTIONS

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    As per ICSG press release on 1st February 2010 & based on existing facilities and announced project developments, annual mine production capacity in the period 2009-2013 is expected to grow at an average rate of around 4.3% per year (%/yr) to reach 23.1 Mt in 2013, an increase of around 3.6 Mt (19%) from that in 2009.

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    CURRENT SCENARIO

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    Copper hit a 20-month high above $8,000 a tonne on 6th April,2010, after reports showed manufacturing expanded in India, the US and Europe, as well as China, and after US payrolls expanded by the most in three years. Most gains were driven by upbeat employment data out of the U.S., which led markets to view the state of the world’s largest economy in a more positive light. Slow but sure decreases in LME inventories provided added signs of a recovering physical market. Again, pulling back from a 20-month high copper looks uncomfortable at $7850 along with copper futures at MCX tracking overseas markets and a firm rupee.

    Weekly Update 12th-16th April 2010

    The markets continued with their upward momentum despite the concerns arising that Greece may default on 304.2 billion euros ($405.2 billion) of its debt. Trichet expressed confidence that Greece won’t default & many believe that IMF may come in for a bailout.

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    Concerns also arose over the huge gains that markets world over has seen in a year. All in all the optimism about the strength of the recovery in global economy suggested by various positive economic data kept the market pace intact. According to National Institute of Economic and Social Research, UK GDP expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter matching the increase seen in the last quarter of the previous calendar year.

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    Huge bank credit offtake in the last fortnight ending 26 March 2010 to the tune of Rs. 1.15 lakh crore after the continuous signs of Industrial,service & external sector recovery will increase the faith among the investors about the economy. The recent run up in the markets hassomewhat discounted the expected good corporate results & the increase in policy rates by the RBI to avoid the danger of generalised inflation in the economy. From the market activity, it looks that the Midcap & small cap would remain the favorites among the investors due to relative valuations. In the coming week, focus of the market would be on the Infosys results & guidance & market would also look on to the IIP numbers, especially the capital goods to gauge the momentum in the Industrial activity.

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    Trend of all world markets is up and so have the Indian Stock Markets posted a 9 week continuous rally. The falling dollar index and the rising rupee gave steam to various asset classes which all moved up. The debate between the problems of Greece or other European nations will be unending but till the trend is up, one should look at longs. Nifty has support between 5250-5150 levels and Sensex between 17700-17300 levels.

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    Recent buoyancy coupled with projected tightness in the supply of various commodities is signifying the bottoming out of global economy.

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    Improvement in housing, job and retail sales data are stimulating fresh buying in commodities, especially in metals and energy. Remarkable jump in dollar index is unable to give much impact on commodities as they are trading on their own fundamentals. Nevertheless, several commodities hit multi months high, hence cautious approach is advised here. Appreciating rupee, which gained more than 5% in just nine weeks, is most likely to eat up the volatility in domestic exchanges. Price movements could be locked in agro commodities as well, particularly in spices, as export activities have become subdued due to the same reason of appreciation in rupee.

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    Stay Tuned for More Updates :)