Archive for November 19th, 2009

Precious Metals are on Record Setting Spree :)

Precious Metals are on Record Setting Spree

 

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As gold rallied by Rs 80 per ten grams to Rs 17,095 and silver firmed up by Rs 110 per kilo to Rs 28,510 due to constant demand from stockiest on account of rising trendย  in global market, both gold and silver resumed at a record high on the bullion market.

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However, due to worries about future inflation and economic uncertainties,ย  another record high in the Asian marketgold hit , while Asian stocks bounced back as the bearish dollar kept assets in demand.

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Meanwhile, spot gold increased as high as $1,143.95 per ounce in early Asia trade, settling just above $1,140 while standard gold rose by Rs 80 per ten grams to resume Rs 17,095 from the overnight closing level of Rs 17,015.

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On the other hand, pure gold also firmed up to Rs 17,185 from Rs 17,105 while silver ready too hardened by Rs 110 per kilo to Rs 28,510 from Rs 28,400 previously.

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Earlier due to frantic buying by jewellers in the midst of firming global trend, gold prices touched a record high of Rs 17,300 per 10 gram in the bullion market and Silver coins also set a record by adding Rs 400 to Rs 33,900 for buying and Rs 34,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

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Moreover yesterday silver also rose by Rs 1,000 to Rs 28,350 per kg.

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Sudden Surge and the record setting spree in the precious metals can be attributed to frantic buying of gold in marriage season.

In between, gold in international markets too has climbed to a record high along with the weakening of dollar.

After 20 Years, India to Import Rice

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the country.

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After 20 Years, India to Import Rice

After 20 years, India to import rice:

India, a traditional rice exporter, will import the grain for the first time in 20 years to meet a projected shortfall of the crop hit by drought and floods, government said yesterday.

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The government estimates that there would be a shortfall of over 15 million tonnes in the 2009-10 Kharif (summer) season due to drought and floods in several states.

Thailand’s Foreign Trade department announced that the world’s biggest rice exporter is expected to release part of its huge stock of almost six million tonnes of rice stockpile to India, besides eight other countries, through g-to-g sales programmes.

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In Other major Commodities Updates we can see that the demand-supply gap for natural rubber in the country is set widen.

Demand-supply gap for rubber stretches:

The demand-supply gap for natural rubber in the country is set widen as production is expected to fall and demand set to rise above earlier stimates.

Rubber production for April-October period was 9.4 per cent lower at 4,35,125 tonnes against 4,80,230 tonnes last year.

Consumption grewn three per cent to 5,36,100 tonnes (5,20,375 tonnes).

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The production-consumption mismatch resulted in a sharp rise in imports and a corresponding fall in exports.

Imports increased 133 per cent to 1,26,472 tonnes (54,283 tonnes), while exports plunged 92 per cent to 3,859 tonnes (34,000 tonnes), sources in the Rubber Board said.

The Rubber Board has scaled down the production target for the current fiscal by 2.8 per cent to 8.40 lakh tonnes from the earlier estimates of 8.67 lakh tonnes announced in April.

The forward estimates of production has moved up 6.8 per cent to 9.31 lakh tonnes from the earlier estimate of 8.81 lakh tonnes.

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CORN- The Un-discovered Legend Part 2 :)

Hello Friends here we come up with an extension of our previous blog, CORNโ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆ. โ€œThe Un-discovered Legendโ€ Part 1

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CORN- The Un-discovered Legend Part 2

In previous Blog we had touched upon few points related to importance of Maize crop in Indian commodity market and its relevance in the context of Indian Scenario ๐Ÿ™‚

In this blog, we would get to know of Potential sources of demand for Maize crops and industrial demand of maize crop. ย ย Also read about the PVO (Price-volume-open Interest) Analysis of the Crop.

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Potential sources of demand:

The apparent increase in consumption demand has been sourced from the preference for corn based food products for human consumption as well as increased use in feed industries.

Human consumption – corn flakes, corn oil, corn flour, etc.,

Feed industry – poultry & animal feed

Ethanol – maize has already proved to be a potential source of ethanol.

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Corn consumption has seen a rapid growth during last few years.

Indeed, consumption patterns have changed at an accelerating pace especially during the winter season; from the time when it has
been introduced in numerous shopping malls around the world in the form of popcorns, baby corns etc.

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Industrial demand:

This commodity has placed itself in an advantageous position & made its presence felt in the industry.

Maize is a key ingredient in animal feed mix, & being the animal feed sector growing at a healthy pace with increasing demand for
meat and milk and milk products, coupled with stagnation in cattle population, there is a rising need to feed the existing population
of cattle with quality feeding.

Therefore, this has opened a window of opportunity for strengthening of global corn prices, which in turn is triggering enormous
demand for Indian maize in the Asian regions.

With the growing demand & expansion of starch sector, the overall demand for maize is likely to grow at a brisk pace.

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Change in % from 2008-09 to 2009-10 (India) Source: USDA

Area Harvested: 11.44%

Beginning Stocks: 51.72%

Production: 0.10%

Total Supply: 1.60%

Total Consumption: -1.1%

Ending stocks: 12.55%

Total Distribution: 1.60%

These positive figures indicate that India has sufficient & comfortable stocks of maize.

In 2009-10 the area harvested (India) is expected to increase by 11.44%, while the consumption is expected to remain almost flat or marginally down in next year.

The ending stocks are also quite high which can pressurize the prices in long term.

In a monthly update on 10th November 2009, USDA cut the corn forecast by 1 percent to 12.921 billion bushels (328 million tonnes).

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PVO (Price-volume-open Interest) Analysis:

Maize futures have proved the old saying โ€œSlow & steady wins the raceโ€.

The prices, volume & open interest in maize futures both in NCDEX & CBOT which had taken a backseat during the beginning of the
year 2009, have been rising again without much volatility in their behaviour.

The prices have been rising from the levels of Rs.795 to Rs.965 during January to November’09, which resulted into bull-run and resultantly futures made a high of 1015 levels on 3rd November ’09, giving a return of 21% till now.

Since the month of March ’09 prices have been seen rising witnessing some corrections during their journey; however factors like
higher international prices & continuous demand from starch & poultry industries have supported the prices.

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