Archive for November 7th, 2009

RBI’s Monetary Policy – Analyst View

Hello Friends, last month we witnessed loads of action with the RBI’s monetary policy being laid down.

Just an extension of our previous blog “RBI’s Monetary Policy Stance – Part 3.

 

 

Analyst View RBI policy

RBI Monetary Policies and Projections Part 4

 


In this Blog we would read the Analyst views with respect to the monetary point of view.

Analysis from the Analyst from monetary point of view:

Though there is a hike in SLR to 25 % but we think it will not have much more impact because the total investment book of commercial banks is already at 30.4% of total NDTL.

Although key rates of CRR, reverse repo and repo rates have been left unchanged, special repo facilities have been withdrawn.

Real estate loans provisioning are set to become more expensive.

NPA norms for banks have been tightened while liabilities of scheduled banks arising from transactions in CBLO with Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. (CCIL) will be subject to maintenance of CRR.

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The RBI is thus attempting to withdraw liquidity from areas where excess liquidity had reached a point it was more than comfortable with, while also targeting better quality management of credit.

Another point is that in the policy stance, RBI has given first priority to keep a vigil on trends in inflation and to be prepared to respond swiftly and effectively through policy adjustments to stabilize inflation expectations.

Second, it will monitor the liquidity situation closely and manage it actively to ensure that credit demands of productive sectors are adequately met while also securing price stability and financial stability.

Lastly, RBI will maintain a monetary and interest rate regime consistent with price stability and financial stability, and supportive of the growth process.

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In conclusion, it bears emphasis that the Reserve Bank is mindful of its fundamental commitment to price stability.

It will continue to monitor the price situation in its entirety and will take measures as warranted by the evolving macroeconomic conditions swiftly and effectively.

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To conclude all the factors it seems that with the withdrawal of special liquidity measures together with an imposition of CRR in borrowing in CBLO market, RBI has taken a first to step towards controlling liquidity.

 

With prioritizing inflation it is expected that the next step of RBI could hike in CRR as it has also reduced the indicative growth of Broad money to 17% from 18%.

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Wheat Sowing Starts, to Gather Pace After Cane Fields Vacated

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Major Agri-Commodities updates from various parts of the globe.

Wheat sowing starts, to gather pace after cane fields vacated

Wheat sowing starts, to gather pace after cane fields vacated

 

Wheat sowing starts, to gather pace after cane fields vacated:

Sowing of wheat, the biggest foodgrain grown during the rabi season, has started in some parts of the country.

The crop has been planted in around 25.7 lakh hectare till November 5, almost 9.4% less than the same period last year.

Though wheat sowing has got off to a slow start this year, but still there is not much concern as the delay is mainly due to late harvesting of kharif crops.

Sowing of rapeseed has also started on a weak note and till Thursday, around 3.48 lakh hectares of land has been brought under the crop as against 6.65 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year.

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In Other major Commodities Updates we can see that Mentha oil futures have turned weak and Corn and soybeans have fell for the third straight day.

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Mentha oil futures turn weak:

Mentha oil futures prices fell by 0.30 per cent today as traders indulged in profit-booking at higher prices amid fall in demand in the spot market.

Increased arrivals from producing belts in Uttar Pradesh also put pressure on the prices.

At the MCX counter, mentha oil for November contract declined by 0.30 per cent to Rs 533.60 a kg clocking business volume in 201 lots.

Similarly, mentha oil for delivery in December contract eased by 0.26 per cent to Rs 540.20 a kg in business turnover in 53 lots.

Fall in mentha oil prices was mostly due to profit-taking by speculators and subdued trend in spot markets.

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Corn, Soybeans Fall as Warm, Dry Weather May Speed U.S. Harvest:

Corn and soybeans fell for the third straight day on speculation that warm, dry weather will hasten U.S. harvesting, boosting supplies for food and feed producers.

Weather conducive to field work is expected across the Midwest in the next 15 days.

About 49 percent of U.S. soybeans and 75 percent of the corn remained to be gathered as of Nov. 1, according to government estimates.

Grain and oilseed markets also fell on reduced investment demand for raw materials as an inflation hedge.

The rising unemployment rate is not good news for demand.

Corn futures for December delivery fell 9.5 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $3.67 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

The decline pared the week’s gain to 0.3 percent, the fourth increase since Oct. 2.

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Indian Stocks Rose After Govt Approved Disinvestment Plans

Indian Stocks Rose After Govt Approved Disinvestment Plans

Indian Stocks Rose After Govt Approved Disinvestment Plans

Indian stocks rose, extending the benchmark index’s longest string of gains in five weeks, after the government approved a plan to sell more shares in state- controlled companies, helping it raise funds to boost spending.

MMTC Ltd., India’s biggest state-owned trading company, surged 20 percent, the most in 10 months.

Rico Auto Industries Ltd., an auto component maker that supplies General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co., climbed 5.1 percent after workers ended a 45-day strike.

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The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, rose 94.38, or 0.6 percent, to 16,158.28.
The measure this week gained 1.7 percent, snapping two weeks of losses.

The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange rose 0.6 percent to 4,796.15.
The BSE 200 Index added 1.1 percent to 2,011.08.

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“The disinvestment move will help moderate India’s fiscal deficit,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of equities at SMC Capitals Ltd. in New Delhi.

“Also, it may help in higher GDP growth led by increased government spending.”

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MMTC soared 20 percent to 36,146.85 rupees, the most since Dec. 17.
State Trading Corp., the No. 2, leapt 15 percent to 353.6 rupees.

NMDC Ltd., India’s largest iron-ore producer, climbed 10 percent to 338 rupees. 

Hindustan Copper Ltd., India’s biggest copper miner, 99.59 percent state-owned, gained 10 percent to 256.35 rupees.

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Budget Deficit

The government owns 99.33 percent in MMTC and 91.02 percent in State Trading, while it holds 98.38 percent in NMDC, according to filings to the Bombay Stock Exchange.

The government will use the money raised from the sale of shares of state companies for social spending.

India’s fiscal deficit reached 6 percent of gross domestic product in the year ended March 31, surpassing the 2.5 percent government target.

The key Sensitive stock index has more than doubled from this year’s lowest level, in March.

Govt’s stand to sell state assets and accept more overseas funds into insurance and banking, has strengthened, after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh resounding re-election victory in May.

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