Archive for November 6th, 2009

RBI’s Monetary Policy Stance – Part 3

Just an extension of our previous blog “RBI, Monetary Projections And Indian Economy

RBI’s Monetary Policy Stance - Part 3

RBI’s Monetary Policy Stance - Part 3

In this Blog we would touch upon the aspects as that of RBI’s Monetary Policy Stance and few more facts which carries direct or indirect connection with the RBI Policies.


For example, business confidence index ,industrial recovery status, overall consumption and investment, export-imports status etc;

The True Facts:

So far business confidence has also improved, and demand conditions seem to have picked up, as seen by better order book and increased capital finance requirements.

Industrial recovery seems to be on its way with 5.8% growth in IIP during April-August ’09.

A revival in capital flows, and stronger performance of the core infrastructure sector (4.8% for April-August ’09) seems to be indicating a slight recovery in the economy.

However, there has been a deceleration in growth of private consumption and investment demand, and raw material prices are expected to rise on account of inflationary pressures.

The deficient monsoon could also reduce rural demand.

First quarter earnings of corporates reflect a decline in sales, and non-food credit growth has decelerated, with credit card and consumer durables related credit turning negative.

Exports have continued to decline as external demand dependent services remain sluggish.

The economy is showing some signs of recovery, while a rising CPI has now pushed WPI into the positive territory, mainly on account of higher food prices.

The RBI’s stance will thus have to manage the trade-off inflationary pressures between supporting growth and controlling .


Monetary Policy Stance

On the basis of the above overall assessment, the stance of monetary policy for the remaining period of 2009-10 will be as follows:

– Keep a vigil on the trends in inflation and be prepared to respond swiftly and effectively through policy adjustments to stabilize inflation expectations.

Monitor the liquidity situation closely and manage it actively to ensure that credit demands of productive sectors are adequately met while also securing price stability and financial stability.

-Maintain a monetary and interest rate regime consistent with price stability and financial stability, and supportive of the growth process.


Stay Tuned for more on the topic.

We would cover Analysis view from the Analyst with respect to the monetary point of view.

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RBI to Assess Affairs of Foreign Banks Operating in India

RBI to Assess Affairs of Foreign Banks Operating in India

RBI to Assess Affairs of Foreign Banks Operating in India

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to run a detailed assessment of the risk-management capabilities and evaluate the transparency in financial affairs of all foreign banks operating in India with an aim to ensure that they do not pose any systemic risk to the banking sector.


However, until this process is finished, foreign banks are doubtful to be permitted to open more branches in India while India has committed to allowing 12 new branches to foreign banks in a year, but has been more liberal.

Moreover, this has resulted in a high presence of foreign banks in India as their WTO commitment allows them to deny licenses to foreign banks once their share in the total assets of the banking system exceeds 15%.

Additionally, as it comes in the aftermath of the financial crisis, the audit reflects concerns over an unduly large presence of foreign banks creating risks for Indian financial markets.

Meanwhile, the finance ministry and the central bank had always supported allowing foreign banks to operate in India as they thought that increased presence of foreign banks boosts the efficiency of the domestic banking sector.

Northern Region – Largest Contributor to the GDP :)


North India - Largest Contributor to the GDP

CII report states that although the economic growth in the region has underperformed the national average, the Northern Region continued to be the largest contributor to the GDP at 27.5% in 2007-08.

However, it said that it clocked a CAGR of 6.2% against 6.5% nationally while the under performance had been witnessed across primary and tertiary sectors.

Moreover, the northern region has not been able to capitalize on its traditional stronghold –agriculture while it has also not been able to capitalize on the opportunities in the service sector like the other regions.

One of the key reasons of under performance in the primary sector has been slow growth rates witnessed by two of the largest agrarian states in the region – Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, which contribute 57.5 per cent to the region’s primary sector.


Performance of the northern region has been reasonably good in the secondary sector, driven to a large extent by growth in the construction sector.

Construction, on the other hand, is also the fastest growing sub sector for the region, CAGR of 12.6% over 1999-00 to 2007-08

Other fastest growing sub sectors for the region are transport, storage and communication; Banking & insurance, real estate, ownership of dwellings & business services.

Discussing the state economies, CII offical said that Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi are the three largest economies in the region.

Chandigarh, Uttarakhand and Haryana are the three fastest growing economies in the region.

All northern region state economies have witnessed declining contribution from the primary sector.

The greatest increase in percentage contribution of the secondary sector has been in Uttarakhand, 15 per cent points.

Similarly the contribution of the tertiary sector has witnessed greatest increase in Haryana, 10 per cent points, he said.