Archive for November, 2009

Dubai Woes to Hit India Hard? “No” Says India’s Think Tank :)

 

Dubai Woes to Hit India Hard? "No" Says India's Think Tank


Indian policy-makers
are not really worried over the potential adverse impact on the country’s economy because of the multi-billion-dollar debt default risk faced by Dubai World, ranked among the largest conglomerates in the region.

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Commerce Minister Anand Sharma said “India is a very large economy. It is a resilient economy”.

“I don’t think some development in real estate in Dubai will have an impact on the Indian economy” he added.

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He also said “As far as India is concerned, the housing, real estate sector and construction industry are all doing well.

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This is confirmed by the increasing demand for construction materials, cement and steel,”

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Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla also saw little impact of the Dubai World’s woes on the country’s economy.

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Though he was a trifle more circumspect and preferred to watch the situation before hazarding a guess.

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“We will have to study what the issue is, what is the problem, what will be the possible implication if any for the Indian economy, the people and corporates,” Chawla told.

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Asked if the crisis will impact money flows into India,since the Gulf region accounts for over half the total inward remittances worth over $25 billion annually from expatriate Indians,

Chawla said: “It’s unlikely.”

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The state-run Dubai World stunned the global financial world Thursday when it announced it would need to restructure its debt, estimated at $59 billion, to preempt default and asked creditors for a six-month deferment.

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The conglomerate, which has a host of companies under its fold, has interests in a wide range of businesses such as realty, infrastructure, logistics and economic zones.

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And that is not just in the region but across a clutch of countries including India.

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Indian equities reacted adversely to the development, with the benchmark sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) down as much as 634.16 points, or 3.76 percent, midway into the trading session Friday.

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It later recovered and closed with a loss of some 220 points, or 1.3 percent over the previous close.

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Indian markets have rallied more than 100 percent from the lows a year ago,mostly backed by news of recovery and not necessarily on fundamentals,”

said Jagannadham Thunuguntla of brokerage firm SMC Capital.

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“This is why such news will have a negative impact on our markets and we will be dragged down,” Thunuguntla, who heads the equities division of SMC Capital told.

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Even some Gulf-based companies, like Emmar, which have business interests in India, said there will be virtually no impact on their ongoing projects in India.

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The response was similar from India’s leading engineering and construction major Larsen and Toubro Ltd, which said its exposure in Dubai was around $20-$25 million.

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India’s Wealth Lies in Its Cities

It was once believed that India lives in its villages.

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Now it is clear that India’s wealth lies in its cities, or more specifically, Mumbai.

 

India's Wealth Lies in Its Cities

A study conducted by Delhi-based SMC Global classified companies geographically on the location of their registered offices.

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It reveals that Mumbai-registered companies account for 36.28% of the total BSE 500 market cap.

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Some of the prominent names based out of Mumbai are Reliance Industries, L&T, HDFC and SBI.

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Also, out of the market capitalisation ascribed to Maharashtra which has the highest market capitalization among the states — more than 90% originates from Mumbai.

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In fact, Mumbai and six other cities account for 85.71% of the total market capitalisation of BSE 500.

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With Delhi NCR (National Capital Region, which includes satellite cities such as Gurgaon and Noida along with the capital) contributing 27.82%.

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After the financial and political capitals, state capitals take the fore.

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Bangalore lays claim to 7.10%,

Hyderabad to 4.86% and Kolkata accounts for 3.83%,

while Ahmedabad and Chennai account for 3.35% and 2.47%, respectively.

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On a state-wide basis, five states in combination with Delhi NCR and Maharashtra account for 94.20% of the total market cap.

A total of 66.17% of the index’s market cap can be traced to Maharashtra and Delhi NCR.

While the latter accounts for 38.35%, Delhi accounts 27.82%.

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Karnataka accounts for 7.74%, Gujarat, 7.48%, Andhra Pradesh is at 4.95% and Tamil Nadu at 4.02%, while Bengal has 3.83%.

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Though the big Indian companies have a pan-India presence with factories or plants located across the country, they tend to have registered offices in metros.

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That is because of the ease of operations and presence of other corporate houses, suggested the study.

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“The traditional metro cities have accumulation advantage.

Its ultimately the money which brings in more money.

As the Indian economy keeps evolving, tier-2 and tier-3 cities may catchup gradually, to bring-in more equitable distribution of wealth across the country.”

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…said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capitals.

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Seasonal Index – “Time is Money” Final Part

Hello Friends here we come up with an extension of our previous blog, “Seasonal Index……“Time is Money” Part 2

In previous Blog, we had touched upon the aspect like analysis part of seasonal patterns in predicting the future prices of the commodity.

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Seasonal Index - “Time is Money” Final Part

In this Blog, we would read about that how an annual average method can be used to generate a seasonal pattern in predicting the future prices of the commodity and seasonal pattern in the year 2009.

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Annual Average Method

The annual average method can be used to generate a seasonal pattern as well as predicting the future prices of the commodity.

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This seasonal price index is derived by calculating the annual average price, and then by expressing the price for each month during the year as a percent of the annual average.

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Here, the data which is used to derive the seasonal price patterns are the monthly prices taken between the year April’2004 & November’2009.

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The monthly indexes over the years are averaged to derive a price index that represents those years.

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An example of the technique is presented in Table 1.

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The seasonal price index table suggests that the index increases from the month of June, the time the buyers enter the market with full potential & reaches the highest till the end of the year.

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In The Year 2009

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The prices movement of this year almost followed the seasonal pattern, except few months.

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The supply constraints of lower output, as farmers opted for cotton, worked as a high base effect for the futures with a flat production figure of 8.5 lakh tonnes in 2008-09.

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The recovery in prices was noticed owing to the unforeseen failure of monsoons & comfortable stocks of 25-30 lakh bags from last year for which guar prices traded higher all through-out the year.

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This commodity created a history as it made a life time high, since the date of launch at national bourse, on reports that the output is estimated at 30-35 lakh quintals, down 62% due to factors like scanty rains in the major growing areas.

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Stronger Rupee along-with volatile Crude oil prices brought some corrections in export earnings from Guargum markets in Europe/US.

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However, upcoming demand for by-products such as churi & korma from international markets kept the millers interested in processing guar.

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In a nutshell, if investors want to spin their money safely & stabilize their net returns, using seasonal Index can prove to be a fair advantage.

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and updates, please click here

Dubai Debt News Sent a Shudder Throughout World Markets

Just a year after the global downturn  derailed  Dubai’s explosive growth, the  city is now  so  swamped  in  debt that  it’s  asking  for a  six-month  reprieve  on  paying  its bills.

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Dubai Debt Fears Grip World Markets

 

This has cast a shadow on a world only just emerging from the worst economic crisis since the 1930s,  knocking markets  from Sydney to Sao Paulo and raising questions about Dubai’s reputation  as a magnet for international investment.

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For India, which has tens of thousands of its citizens living  and working in the emirate,  the concerns are more direct:  thousands of its expats staring at job losses and  the economy, sharply reduced trade.

India, which gets nearly a quarter of the remittances from the United Arab Emirates and  has lakhs of laborers working in the region, could be worse off than most other nations  if the crisis escalates into a full-blown one  like the Russian or Argentinean crises of the past.🙂

India’s exports to the UAE stood at $23.92 billion in FY09.

It is very likely that we may see one more leg of job losses in Dubai.

The only consolation for the region is that Abu Dhabi is booming.

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Indian shares and the rupee fell in sync with other global markets where investors are fleeing for safety after Dubai debt trap concerns.

The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex on Friday tumbled over 451.63 points to 16,403.30 points in the first ten minutes of trading on hectic selling by funds in line with weak global cues and concerns over Dubai’s debt.

Similarly, the wide-based National Stock Exchange index Nifty dropped by 140.50 points to 4865.05 points.

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Brokers said the selling focus was more on banking and realty stocks after Dubai’s debt problems revived concerns about the global financial system and rattled markets across Europe and Asia.

Indian rupee fell 24 paisa to 46.55 against the dollar.  The MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 1.4%.

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Most European indices were about 2% lower after Asia tumbled.

The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 3.6%, its biggest drop since August, and Brazil’s Bovespa Index slipped 1.1%. U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Credit-default swaps tied to debt sold by Dubai rose as much as 131 basis points to 571.

“Dubai isn’t doing risk appetite any favours at all and the markets remain in a vulnerable state of mind,” said Market analysts.

“We’re still in an environment where we’re vulnerable to financial shocks of any sort and this is one of those.”

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Uncertainty over stocks leads to price volatility in turmeric futures

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the globe.

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Uncertainty over stocks leads to price volatility in turmeric futures:

In an unusual situation this week, far-term turmeric contracts were trading much below near-term ones, offering a big arbitrage opportunity for hedgers and speculators, on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX).

The price difference was 39 per cent.

Last year’s carryover stock is estimated to have declined steeply, at around 150,000 bags (a bag is 70 kg) as of today, as compared to around 700,000 bags around the same time last year.

Arrivals at the Erode market were 2,000 bags and sold at Rs 10,900-11,000 a quintal.

In Duggirala, prices were placed at Rs 9,800-10,500 a quintal and in Warangal at Rs 9,900-10,500 a quintal.

Turmeric exports climbed seven per cent to 4,000 tonnes in October 2009 from the same period last year.

Weak turmeric futures put downward pressure on spot markets, to send the product down by Rs 800 a quintal.

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In Other major Commodities Updates also read Soybeans and Wheat Drop as Dubai Default Risk Dents Confidence of the Investors.

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Soybeans, Corns and Wheat Drop as Dubai Default Risk Dents Confidence:

Soybeans, corn and wheat slumped after Dubai’s bid to reschedule debt sent equities tumbling and eroded investor confidence in commodities.

Soybeans for January delivery dropped as much as 2.7 percent to $10.2625 a bushel, the lowest level since Nov. 19, in electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade and were at $10.385 at of 10:50 a.m. Tokyo time.

The contract has lost 0.7 percent this week, the first such drop in three weeks.

Wheat for March delivery in Chicago lost as much as 2.4 percent to $5.5775 a bushel before trading at $5.595.

The grain dropped 3.7 percent this week, falling for the first time in four weeks.

Production may be around 21 million metric tons, down 2 percent from last harvest and lower than the 23 million tons forecast in October,2009.

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please Click Here

“Seasonal Index – “Time is Money” Part 2

Hello Friends here we come up with an extension of our previous blog, Seasonal Index……“Time is Money” Part 1

In previous Blog, we had touched upon the aspect like what is seasonal pattern and reasons for studying seasonal variation.

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Seasonal Index……“Time is Money”


Now we would see the analysis part of seasonal patterns in predicting the future prices of the commodity.

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The Analysis

Crop prices tend to follow a general seasonal pattern of their own, identifying the major turning points in prices, setting their seasonal low at harvest followed by a post-harvest rally, where the supply of the crop is fixed and consumption gradually takes that supply, causing prices to rise.

However, major market shocks or powerful influencing factors like monsoon, production figures, stock levels & demand may significantly alter seasonal patterns & the prices may experience the special condition.

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This is what happened with the Guar prices.

The ‘Guar’ legume plant is rain-fed monsoon crop.

Monsoon has been the decisive factor for the trend in guar futures.

The sowing period is July and August right after the first shower of the monsoon and the harvesting period is September and November.

Fresh arrivals of the crop from Haryana and Punjab begin immediately after the first week of September and continue till the month of December.

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One example would be redeploying capital in Guar futures in two phases by taking selling positions from April as monsoon sets in – boosting the production levels, and buying in the month of June when the rally begins.

If we follow the price index & compare it with the actual, then it is seen that the prices have followed the path of the seasonal trend many times in this year & have given their best highs from month of June to August.

The seasonality shown in the below graphs depicts that the positive wave has given a satisfying return on investment in both of these commodities, & the strategy adopted of “Sell in April” makes this clear.


Guar Seed Seasonal Index vs Actual

Guar Seed Seasonal Index vs Actual



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Again, the investors taking fresh buying positions from the end of June & holding till the end of the year have had always hard-earned profits.

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Stay Tuned for more on this.

In next blog we would read about that how an annual average method can be used to generate a seasonal pattern in predicting the future prices of the commodity and seasonal pattern in the year 2009.

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please click here

Global Slowdown Caused Slump in Growth Rate of the Demat Accounts

Global Slowdown Caused Slump in Growth Rate of the Demat Accounts

 

Despite the blistering pace kept by the equities market in the past 10 months, the rise in the number of new retail investors has slowed down.

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According to the data from National Securities and Depositories Limited, the growth rate of demat accounts has declined to 6 per cent, compared with 13 per cent last year.

Experts attribute this to the overall slowdown in the economy.

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As per experts a prolonged, dull phase in 2008 made investors jittery about investing in the equities market.

Also, as many individuals were scared of losing their jobs, so they did not intend to invest more.

There has been an average growth of 14.75 per cent in investors opening demat accounts till 2008.

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Financial intermediaries such as broking companies, whose fortunes are directly linked to the markets, have witnessed subdued sentiments in the equity space from retail investors.

Experts cited 2008 market crash and the global financial meltdown as the reason for this negative development.

Moreover recession of last year had demotivated and scared the retail investors good enough to drive them away from the further investing.

This caused enormous loss for Financial intermediaries and most of the brokerage houses had to shut shop and retrench many staff too.

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“The confidence of the retail investors is yet to be restored. Even in the case of new initial public offerings, only the institutional part is getting oversubscribed,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of research at SMC Capitals.

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