Archive for August, 2009

Weekly Equity Update 21st-28th August :)

Weekly Update

After closing almost flat in penultimate week, in the week gone by markets closed in green terrain following the global markets which rallied to 10-month highs buoyed by renewed hopes that the global economic recovery is gathering pace and is pulling out of its deepest recession since the 1930s.

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Closer home, revival of monsoon rains, fresh buying by FIIs and firm European market boosted sentiment.

Moreover the statement made by FM that government expects GDP growth to accelerate to over 8% in 2010-11, with the economy showing signs of recovery, acted as a booster to markets.

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However it is expected that higher food prices will lead to WPI inflation accelerating to 6% in the fiscal year to March 2010.

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On the world economic front, the US economy shrank at an annual pace of 1% between April and June 2009, unchanged from an initial estimate released last month.

From the United Kingdom, its economy contracted 0.7% in the second quarter as the recession prompted companies to cut investment and inventories while consumers scaled back spending.

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Japan‘s exports tumbled and stood at 35.7% for a tenth straight month in July as demand from all of the nation’s major markets deteriorated.

Trend of all markets is up though Shanghai has topped out and moving down which is a cause of concern.

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Nifty has support between 4600-4500 and Sensex between 15500-15000.

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Once again commodities have shown the buoyancy that they can hold the support.

One or two day’s correction in the prices couldn’t break the trend of commodities. However upside is limited.

Resembling last week, current week as well is jam-packed of event risk as GDP data of many countries will release which will make commodities volatile throughout the week accordingly.

Precious metals may trade in a range with upward bias.

Back at home, to see more upside it has to trade above the level of 15000 in MCX.

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In agro commodities, buying may return in spices as recent fall in the prices has made Indian parity more competitive in international market.

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MARKET OUTLOOK

Trend of all markets is up though Shanghai has topped out and moving down which is a cause of concern.

It seems that currently US markets are determining the overall trend and our markets might be linked up with US markets now as we have broken above 4730 Nifty.

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If US markets don’t react, then we should be seeing higher levels ahead.

Nifty has support between 4600-4500 and Sensex between 15500-15000.

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EQUITY TABLES :

1. Indian and Sectoral Indices :

weekly indices update

2. BSE Movers and Shakers & IA Equity Figures

BSE Movers and Shakers & IA Equity Figures

3. NSE Movers and Shakers :

NSE Weekly Movers and Shakers

4. MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS :

MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

5. GLOBAL INDICES :

Weekly GLOBAL INDICES


From the United Kingdom, its economy contracted 0.7% in the second quarter as the recession prompted companies to cut investment and inventories while consumers scaled back spending.

Where Are We Heading To? Part 2

Indian Stock Market Growth

From the positive happenings in the economy, let’s see how the stock markets have behaved amidst all this?

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The price charts of many companies reflected that the investors were in a catch-up mode.

This was evident from the stock price trajectory of most stocks, which saw a sharp spike in few days.

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In many cases, the stock prices nearly doubled in a matter of few trading sessions.

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It’s a kind of emotion that grips a commuter when he/she loses a train or bus by a fraction of a second.

When we see a bus/train departing in front of our eyes, we rush towards to it without caring about the risks involved.

What if you hurt yourself badly in the process? But who cares?

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Those days seem to be back where most of the frontline stocks are at their 52-week highs or better, but, still their valuations, measured by various ratios such as price-to-earning multiples or price-to-book value among others are far from the highs of 2008.

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Valuations come with expectations. ๐Ÿ™‚

Higher the valuations, greater is investor expectation from that particular stock.

To justify the elevated valuations, corporate earnings have to grow at a significant rate.

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Companies also have to improve the quality of earning i.e. the profit growth has to be accompanied with an equally rapid rise in cash flows and dividends payouts.

But can this really happen? To support this, we have the World Bank statement, who said that India would grow 8.1 per cent in 2010, ahead of China (7.5 per cent).

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The numbers in the survey also suggest India is finally ready to rub shoulders with its northern neighbour.

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The point is, India is better placed to face the economic slowdown as compared to other large economies because of the diversified nature of the economy in which some sectors witness robust demand to mitigate the impact of a demand slowdown in other sectors.

It is clear that the Indian economy is recovering from the clutches of the world economic crisis.

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Even the performance of the stock market has shown signs of revival of investor interest and confidence, both domestic and

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The confidence of FIIs in India started to built up in the last few months which is evident from the FII figure mentioned above and tends to be in upbeat mood going forward.

Therefore, even if economic growth does recover in India, it would be a different than what we have seen in the past.

And to gain, investors will have to offload baggage of the past and look at the future afresh.

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Where are we heading to? Part 1

Growth in Indian Industry

The Indian economy’s business sentiment has improved indicating a path of recovery.

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Let’s see, why do we say this?

A surprise improvement was witnessed in the IIP numbers for June 2009 at 7.8%.

The WPI based inflation has softened to below zero level.

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However, the prices of items of mass consumption (food articles) show no signs of softening and have risen substantially due to supply side constraints.

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The performance of inward investments has been fairly well.

The Foreign Direct Investment flows surged 13% at $4.3 bn for April-May 2009-10.

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Painting a picture of a resilient economy, Finance Minister believes the economy will grow by more than 6% despite a fear of drought and the decline in the sowing of the kharif crop, such as rice.

The strength of the economy in the slowdown is the large services sector, which has, historically, been less affected by cyclical downturns than manufacturing, a strong farm sector, robust savings rate, ambitious infrastructure development programme and upbeat foreign investors.

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The 224-million-tonnes cement industry is yet again set to strike a growth of 10 per cent in June.

The production numbers from the top cement makers are anything to go by, the continuous robust growth will be maintained.

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The Rs 82,000 crore Indian FMCG industry primarily seeking the implementation of the GST (Goods & Services Tax) by April 1, 2010 in the upcoming Union Budget, expects fiscal measures will spur growth of the FMCG sector in rural as well as urban India.

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Further, in a sign of confidence in the Indian markets, Foreign Institutional Investors pumped in over $6 billion, or about Rs. 29,940 crore this year, with over $1 billion coming in July alone.

An analysis of FIIs activity shows that overseas investors are the net purchasers of Indian stocks worth $6.18 billion (Rs 29,940.30 crore) from January to July this year.

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Also, with the India-Asean (Association of South-East Asian Nations)ย  that inked the long awaited Free Trade Agreement (FTA) for duty-free import and export of 4,000 products over a period of eight years at the Asean economic ministers meeting held in Thailand, the India-Asean trade is likely to surpass $50 billion by 2010.

The Indian economy’s business sentiment has improved indicating a path of recovery. Let’s see, why do we say this?

A surprise improvement was witnessed in the IIP numbers for June 2009 at 7.8%. The WPI based inflation has softened to

below zero level. However, the prices of items of mass consumption (food articles) show no signs of softening and have

risen substantially due to supply side constraints. The performance of inward investments has been fairly well. The

Foreign Direct Investment flows surged 13% at $4.3 bn for April-May 2009-10.

Painting a picture of a resilient economy, Finance Minister believes the economy will grow by more than 6% despite a fear

of drought and the decline in the sowing of the kharif crop, such as rice. The strength of the economy in the slowdown is

the large services sector, which has, historically, been less affected by cyclical downturns than manufacturing, a strong

farm sector, robust savings rate, ambitious infrastructure development programme and upbeat foreign investors.

The 224-million-tonnes cement industry is yet again set to strike a growth of 10 per cent in June. The production

numbers from the top cement makers are anything to go by, the continuous robust growth will be maintained.

The Rs 82,000 crore Indian FMCG industry primarily seeking the implementation of the GST (Goods & Services Tax) by

April 1, 2010 in the upcoming Union Budget, expects fiscal measures will spur growth of the FMCG sector in rural as well

as urban India

Further, in a sign of confidence in the Indian markets, Foreign Institutional Investors pumped in over $6 billion, or about

Rs.29,940 crore this year, with over $1 billion coming in July alone. An analysis of FIIs activity shows that overseas

investors are the net purchasers of Indian stocks worth $6.18 billion (Rs 29,940.30 crore) from January to July this year.

Also, with the India-Asean (Association of South-East Asian Nations) Free Trade Agreement (FTA) that inked the longawaited

Free Trade Agreement (FTA) for duty-free import and export of 4,000 products over a period of eight years at the

Asean economic ministers meeting held in Thailand, the India-Asean trade is likely to surpass $50 billion by 2010.

SEBI releases guidelines for interest rate futures :)

Interest Rate Futures

Market regulator SEBI on Friday issued guidelines for trading in interest rate futures under which the 10-year government securities can be traded on bourses, a development that will deepen the debt market.

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As per the guidelines, the contract size for futures trading would be Rs 2 lakh with a maximum maturity period of 12 months.

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The contract cycle, it added, would consist of four fixed quarterly contracts expiring in March, June, September and December.

The notional coupon rate for such trade, the guidelines said, would be 7 per cent to be compounded every six months.

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Welcoming the move SMC Capitals Equity Head Jagannadham Thunuguntla said, “It is a right step by SEBI. This will activate the debt market in the country.”

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The guidelines further said stock exchanges will have to seek approval of the SEBI before starting trading in interest rate futures in their currency derivative segment.

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The clearing system for the interest rate futures, it added, would be the same as for the currency derivatives segment.

The exchanges will also be required to disclose upfront the composition of the basket of deliverable grade securities and the associated conversion factors for each of the quarterly contract.

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Sebi’s Another Jolt to the Fund Houses – MF Exit Load for 1st Year !!

MF Exit Load Charges


Within weeks of shaking up the mutual fund industry by abolishing entry load in all schemes and moving to a uniform exit load regime, Sebi has given another jolt to the fund houses.

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The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), in a meeting with mutual fund heads, has recommended that the tenure for charging of exit loads be made uniform at one year.

This move is seen as Beneficial for Investors.

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Sebi suggested fund houses to move to a regime of charging exit loads only for the first year of investments.

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After Sebi mandated that all entry loads should go and exit loads should be uniform across-the-board, fund houses had gone into a rejig mode with their finances so that they could compensate MF distributors.

The change in the compensation structure was done with the assumption that exit loads could be there for perpetuity.

But โ€œthe recent Sebi suggestion on exit load has sent all those changes to the compensation structure for a toss,โ€™โ€™ said a top official at a fund house.

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The Sebi chairman C B Bhave advised that increasing the exit tenure beyond a year would not be in keeping with investor interest.

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MF industry officials said that limiting exit load to a year could lead to increased inclination among investors to move out of a scheme if the returns over one year are good.

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Earlier, as part of the rejig exercise to change the compensation structure, a host of fund houses had increased exit load period.

Now if Sebiโ€™s advice becomes a rule, all those will have to be reversed, industry players said.

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However, as the CEO of a fund house pointed out that so far Sebi has not come out with any formal letter. โ€œItโ€™s still evolving. I believe a lot of things can happen before it is formally notified,โ€™โ€™ said the fund house CEO.

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Within weeks of shaking up the mutual fund industry by abolishing entry load in all schemes and moving to a uniform exit load regime, Sebi has given another jolt to the fund houses.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), in a meeting with mutual fund heads held on Tuesday, has recommended that the tenure for charging of exit loads be made uniform at one year.

In a late evening meeting on Tuesday, Sebi suggested fund houses to move to a regime of charging exit loads only for the first year of investments.

After Sebi mandated that all entry loads should go and exit loads should be uniform across-the-board, fund houses had gone into a rejig mode with their finances so that they could compensate MF distributors.

The change in the compensation structure was done with the assumption that exit loads could be there for perpetuity.

But โ€œthe recent Sebi suggestion on exit load has sent all those changes to the compensation structure for a toss,โ€™โ€™ said a top official at a fund house.

โ€œOur capacity to pay to the distributors will reduce substantially,โ€™โ€™ said the head of a local fund house.

“The Sebi chairman C B Bhave advised that increasing the exit tenure beyond a year would not be in keeping with investor interest,”

MF industry officials said that limiting exit load to a year could lead to increased inclination among investors to move out of a scheme if the returns over one year are good.

Earlier, as part of the rejig exercise to change the compensation structure, a host of fund houses had increased exit load period.

Now if Sebiโ€™s advice becomes a rule, all those will have to be reversed, industry players said.

However, as the CEO of a fund house pointed out that so far Sebi has not come out with any formal letter. โ€œItโ€™s still evolving. I believe a lot of things can happen before it is formally notified,โ€™โ€™ said the fund house CEO.

Indian Stocks Rise; Bharti, Telecom Companies Lead Advance

Bull & Bears

Indian stocks rose for the seventh day, driving the benchmark index to its highest monthly gain in more than a year. Telecom shares led gains after the government said it aims to auction high-speed mobile phone service permits.

Bharti Airtel Ltd., the largest mobile operator, jumped to a three-month high on news that so-called 3G licenses will be auctioned off at a starting price of 35 billion rupees ($716 million).

The Bombay Stock Exchangeโ€™s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, added 108.66, or 0.7 percent, to 15,889.73, according to preliminary closing prices. The gauge gained 4.3 percent this week. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange advanced 0.8 percent to 4,723.85. The BSE 200 Index rose 0.7 percent to 1,945.33.

Building your Financial Future After a Divorce

financial-planning-after-divorce

You need to do long term financial planning when you are goingย through a divorce. It’s important that you recover from the split by assessing your situation as singles and setting up new financial plans with a focus on longevity. Here are five simple steps for building your financial future after a divorce:

1. Start with a plan.

Take a look at your finances before the divorce and then subtract what you’ve lost to give you a good perspective on your fiscal situation. Be realistic with yourself and set a budget that you can easily manage with your new single status.

2. Check your credit.

Maintaining your credit is an important step in walking away from a divorce financially intact. Examine your credit reports and ensure that any name changes or card closures are accurate and taken care of.

3. Ensure your retirement.

Confirm that all of your retirement arrangements are intact and that any assets or funds you are entitled to have been taken care of. Division of savings and accounts should be paramount in your review.

4. Obtain the necessary insurance.

Examine your insurance policies and make sure that you and your property are still covered.

5. Review your taxes.

Understanding the tax ramifications of your divorce is a key part of planning for your financial future. Confirm that all tax responsibilities between you and your spouse are coordinated appropriately.

Private Equity Funds Shying Away from PIPEs

Private equity-money-indian-rupees

Indian private equity firms are currently disinclined to conduct private investments in public equity (PIPE) deals, according to a report in the Business Standard. Their reticence is thought to be due to the recent secondary market crash, and the uncertainty that ensued.

According to the report, which cites a study by Venture Intelligence, private equity firms announced 24 PIPE deals in H1 2009, which were worth around $349m โ€“ a massive 68 percent decline on H1 2008โ€™s $1.58bn, across 68 deals.

In addition, PIPE deals comprised 12 percent of the total private equity deal value โ€“ $2.89bn โ€“ for H1 2009.

For instance, in 2008, the value of Pipe investments worth $1.67 billion eroded to $1.22 billion, an absolute loss of $0.45 billion (26.85 per cent), said an SMC Capital report.

Vishal Tulsyan, chief executive officer of Motilal Oswal suggested to the Business Standard that losses arising from mark-to-market accounting may be partially to blame for this trend.

โ€œPEs are staying away from PIPE deals due to the mark-to-market issue. PEs invest for a time-frame of four-six years. Since the market is uncertain, one would not like to take risk,โ€ he said.

Furthermore, valuations have risen in the last nine months or so. โ€œPIPE deals are not cheap anymore. The capital market makes sense for people who are looking at quick appreciation. The market has been range-bound and very volatile,โ€ said Alok Gupta, the chief executive officer of Axis Private Equity, speaking to the Business Standard.

To set 25 pct public equity float is tough task for India

equity

India faces an uphill task to reimpose a rule requiring listed companies to have at least a 25 percent public float, with resistance seen from controlling shareholders in private sector firms.

The finance ministry’s effort to bring in a uniform public float minimum comes after a similar push by the capital markets regulator was waylaid by the collapse in markets last year.

Market players say reimposing a minimum float is a good idea but would work only if it were rolled out gradually in order to prevent flooding the market with shares.

A total of 174 firms would need to offload stakes worth roughly 1.61 trillion rupees ($33 billion) if the minimum float rule was imposed, a study by deal tracking firm SMC Capitals showed. Of that, 28 state-run firms, primarily in energy, steel and banks, account for 83 percent.

By comparison, Indian firms have raised $10 billion in share sales so far this year, surpassing the $7.2 billion raised in all of 2008, according to Thomson Reuters data.

PROPOSAL TO HELP PLUG SHORTFALL

India, facing its highest fiscal deficit in 16 years, can use the sale of stakes in government companies to meet the shortfall. A minimum float rule would mean the sale of larger stakes in state firms than might otherwise be considered.

The mandatory share of huge blocks of stock could also be a boon to investment banks managing the sales.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee noted in his July 6 budget speech that the average public float in Indian firms was less than 15 percent.

“Deep, non-manipulable markets require larger and diversified public shareholdings. This requirement should be uniformly applied to the private sector as well as public sector companies,” he said.

Recent media reports have said the finance minister has approved a minimum public float plan in phases from 2010/11.

There will be pulls and pressures especially from some private sector firms but this time the authorities are banking on pulling it off given the government finances,” said Arun Kejriwal, director at research firm KRIS.

However, several market insiders were sceptical of the plan’s success, given the huge amount of stock the market would need to absorb, as well as the reluctance of controlling shareholders to trim their stakes.

“It is just impractical from an execution point of view. India just does not have the capacity,” said a top executive at a foreign investment bank. He did not want to be named given the sensitivity of the matter.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India tried implementing the 25 percent rule in phases from 2006 on firms with a market value of under 10 billion rupees ($204 million).

How to choose a Mutual Fund?

mutualfunds

Mutual funds are the best investment tool for the retail investor as it offers the twin benefits of good returns and safety as compared with other avenues such as bank deposits or stock investing.

Choose the wrong fund and you would have been better off keeping money in a bank fixed deposit. Keep in mind the points listed below and you could at least marginalise your investment risk:

1) Past performance –

While past performance is not an indicator of the future it does throw some light on the investment philosophies of the fund, how it has performed in the past and the kind of returns it is offering to the investor over a period of time.

Also check out the two-year and one-year returns for consistency.

How did these funds perform in the bull and bear markets of the immediate past?

Tracking the performance in the bear market is particularly important because the true test of a portfolio is often revealed in how little it falls in a bad market.

2) Know your fund manager

The success of a fund to a great extent depends on the fund manager.

The same fund managers manage most successful funds. Ask before investing, has the fund manager or strategy changed recently?

For instance, the portfolio manager who generated the fundโ€™s successful performance may no longer be managing the fund.

3) Does it suit your risk profile?

Certain sector-specific schemes come with a high-risk high-return tag. Such plans are suspect to crashes in case the industry loses the marketmenโ€™s fancy.

If the investor is totally risk averse he can opt for pure debt schemes with little or no risk. Most prefer the balanced schemes which invest in the equity and debt markets. Growth and pure equity plans give greater returns than pure debt plans but their risk is higher.

4) Read the prospectus

The prospectus says a lot about the fund. A reading of the fundโ€™s prospectus is a must to learn about its investment strategy and the risk that it will expose you to.
Funds with higher rates of return may take risks that are beyond your comfort level and are inconsistent with your financial goals.

But remember that all funds carry some level of risk. Just because a fund invests in does not mean it does not have significant risk.

Thinking about your long-term investment strategies and tolerance for risk can help you decide what type of fund is
best suited for you.

5) How will the fund affect the diversification of your portfolio?

When choosing a mutual fund, you should consider how your interest in that fund affects the overall diversification of your investment portfolio. Maintaining a diversified and balanced portfolio is key to maintaining an acceptable level of risk.

6) What it costs you?

A fund with high costs must perform better than a low-cost fund to generate the same returns for you.

Even small differences in fees can translate into large differences in returns over time.

Finally, donโ€™t pick a fund simply because it has shown a spurt in value in the current rally.

Ferret out information of a fund for atleast three years. The one thing to remember while investing in equity funds
is that it makes no sense to get in and out of a fund with each turn of the market.

Like stocks, the right equity mutual fund will pay off big โ€” if you have the patience.Similarly, it makes little sense to hold on to a fund that lags behind the total market year after year.