Sensex Tumbles 216 Points on Weak Global Cues

Stocks dropped on Wednesday, triggered mainly by weak sentiments in Asian markets  on concern over rising dollar, ahead of the expiry of October series of futures and option contracts.

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European markets saw a gap-down opening, but recovered later, helping the market to gain some ground in the last half-an-hour of trade. The BSE Sensex trimmed 216.02 points, or 1.07 per cent, to close at 20,005.37. Nifty index declined 69.35 points, or 1.14 per cent, to 6,012.65.

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“Strengthening of the dollar against a basket of major world currencies dragged the market on Wednesday. The Dollar Index, which has an inverse relationship with different assets classes, is rebounding these days. Due to which, investors have turned cautious on equities markets,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of research at SMC Global Securities.

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The Dollar Index on Wednesday rose to 77.92 against 76.64 on October 14. Before this, the index was falling continuously from the middle of July.

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There was also speculation that US Federal Reserve’s asset purchase plan may be a disappointing one, said Alex Mathews of Geojit BNP Paribas.

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“Nifty has a major support at 5,963 while on the upside, it faces resistance at 6,089 level. On Thursday, we are going to see the October F&O expiry. The rollovers at the end of Wednesday’s session was around 45 per cent,” he said.

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Banking stocks continued to weigh heavy while disappointing results of heavyweight NTPC hurt sentiments on the power counter.

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Union Bank, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank fell 5.85 per cent, 2.23 per cent and 1.93 per cent, respectively. SBI inched up 0.41 per cent to Rs 3,193.45. Union Bank on Wednesday posted 40 per cent decline in September quarter PAT to Rs 303 crore compared with the same period a year ago.

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NTPC fell 3.24 per cent after the company reported 2.07 per cent drop in PAT on 20.46 per cent year-on-year rise in net sales for the September quarter. The results were announced after Tuesday’s trading hours.

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Among other stocks in news, MRPL rose 1.76 to Rs 83.95 after its Q2 net profit jumped 56.70 per cent to Rs 281.57 crore. ONGC and HPCL, the two stakeholders of the company, dipped 1.80 per cent and 1.42 per cent.

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Shriram Transport Finance hit an all-time high and rose 3.94 per cent to Rs 89.45 after its net profit surged 44.11 per cent year-on-year to Rs 298.96 crore.

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Weekly Update 25th – 29th October

Losses due to profit taking in the Indian markets during initial part of the week were recouped seeing the huge response for Coal India offering especially from the overseas investors. The issue attracted bids that exceeded the combined gross domestic product of Latvia and Iceland. However most of the Asian markets corrected in the week gone by after China unexpectedly raised interest rates to curb inflation and to prevent an asset price bubble in the economy on concerns over regions economic growth.

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The move indicates that the consensus has been reached for lower growth. Albeit past experience has shown that initial interest rate hikes does not give much harm to economic growth. China’s economy expanded by 9.6 percent in the third quarterless than the growth experienced in the prior quarter but higher than the median estimates of 9.5 percent.

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Results of companies from Europe to U.S. supported markets. According to Bloomberg data of the 132 companies in the S&P 500 that reported results since Oct. 7, more than 85 percent have topped analysts’ per- share earnings estimates.Whereas in Europe, of the 46 companies in the Stoxx 600 that have posted results since Oct. 7, 32 have beaten estimates for per-share income.

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The result season has so far been good in India. Banks have posted decent to strong earnings growth. In the Information technology sector TCS and Infosys surprised positively while Wipro surprised negatively. Auto companies are expected to deliver strong set of numbers on the back of higher volumes with price increase. Higher metal prices are likely to provide good earnings to manufacturer of base metals. Cement companies are likely to post bad set of numbers on the back of lower realization and good monsoon season.

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Market is eyeing over G-20 finance chiefs meet to try to resolve differences over countries that are devaluing their respective currencies in order to spur economic growth and to endorse market-based exchange rates in a fresh effort to defuse mounting trade tensions before they hurt the world economy. We may see some volatility in domestic markets on account of expiry week.

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Stock specific activity is likely to play out as the results season is still going on. Nifty has support between 5950-5870 and Sensex between 19640-19200.Good corporate earnings amid falling dollar index are offering opportunities to bulls to keep the momentum in their favour, especially in base metals. 19-commodity Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, which serves as a broad benchmark for commodities investors, was up for a ninth straight week since Aug. 22.

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Monetary tightening by China could not give much impact on base metals prices. In case of bullions, trend is little different. Bullions prices retreated across the board as dollar index grew stronger and investors opted to sell some of their holdings for aprofit. For the time being bullions should move in a range. Market players appears cautious to some extent ahead of next month’s decision from the Federal Reserve about whether to take steps to stimulate the economy. Even energy pack is moving in a range on mixed fundamentals. Bulls are more active in agricultural commodities owing to the ongoing festive fever.

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Weekly Update 18th – 22nd October 2010

Most of the world markets rallied in the week gone by on the buzz of further quantitative easing by U.S. Without giving details about the strategies on how the central bank will act its Nov. 2-3 meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said additional monetary stimulus may be warranted because inflation is too low and unemployment is too high.

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Fed is considering ways for raising inflation expectations to encourage people to believe that prices will start rising at a faster pace so that they would spend more of their money now. Retail sales in U.S.climbed more than forecast as purchases rose 0.6 percent following a 0.7 percent gain in August and manufacturing in the New York region expanded in October at a faster pace than anticipated.

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China’s Shanghai Composite Index saw gains of 8.5 percent on the anticipation that China’s banks show strong earnings growth this quarter as the lending has beaten the forecast. Moreover the strong exports growth of 25.1 percent in September mirrors the strong underlying economic momentum. The country’s foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s largest, surged by a record to $2.65 trillion at the end of September.

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India’s wholesale price index rose to rose 8.62 percent in September from a year earlier after an 8.5 percent gain in August. Manufactured product inflation and Food price inflation rose by 0.3 percent and 1.6 percent respectively in September fromthe previous month. RBI Chief Subbarao said that inflation in India is being “quite stubborn,” a sign that controlling prices remains the central bank’s priority.

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Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn signaled the central bank may intervene in the currency markets to shield exporters from the strengthening rupee. The capital account showed a surplus of $17.5 billion in the quarter to June 30, compared with a record shortfall of $13.7 billion in its current account.

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Foreign investors have so far poured approximately $23 billion in stocks and 10 billion indebt this year. Industrial production expanded by 5.6 percent in August after seeingan expansion of 15.2 percent in July.Going next week the main attraction for retail investors would be the primary market with Mega IPO of Coal India slated to open on 18th October. As Infosys has already rung the bell with positive surprise in terms of earning growth, the investors would now look forward to numbers of companies like L&T, HDFC, Bajaj Auto, etc that are scheduled to announce numbers next week.

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Nifty has support between5870-5950 and Sensex between 19200-19640 levels.With expecting second round of monetary easing, investors dumped dollar and endowed other investment avenues. Commodities extended a rally to the highest intwo years and CRB closed near the mark of 300. The dollar fell to its lowest in 10 months against a basket of currencies and breached the mark of 77. Five week continuous downfall enhanced metals and agricultural commodities.

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Gold gave heroic performance and made another life time high. It rose more than 25% in 2010.Silver is also trading near 30 year high. However, being prudent investors, one should book profit in gold and silver, considering safe trading. Base metals are expected to trade in a range. Crude oil should trade in range $80-85 in short run on mixed fundamental. OPEC has decided to keep the production quota unchanged in last meeting. Agro commodities should trade with high volatility ahead of expiry of October contract.

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Weekly Update 11th – 15th October 2010

Beside Indian market all global markets closed in green in the week gone by on the expectation of policy easing by developed nations. Central banks resorting to purchase of debt and currency intervention in developedeconomies is flooding markets with liquidity and funds are flowing to Asia for higherreturns. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has signaled that Fed may announce thepurchase of more Treasuries as soon as their next policy meeting in November in aneffort to boost growth and reduce an unemployment rate.

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The Bank of Japan said this week it will establish a 5 trillion yen ($61 billion) fund to buy government bondsand other assets. It also cut its benchmark overnight interest rate for the first timesince 2008, dropping it to a range of zero to 0.1 percent. Joining the league European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet too said that ECB policymakers are in the “same mood” as a month ago and for now remain committed tophasing out their unlimited lending program.With the economic activity gaining pace, it is believed that Indian market wouldcontinue to see overseas buying. Moreover Indian government plans to raise $8.9billion in the year ending March 31 selling state assets including Coal India, Steel Authority of India Ltd. and Indian Oil Corp. thereby giving more investment opportunities to investors.

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While many developed nations are intervening in the currency markets in order tostem the appreciation in the currency, Indian Finance minister is of the opinion thatthe situation has not gone to an extent at which there is a need to restrict portfolio or foreign direct investment. As a matter of fact Indian rupee gained 4.5 percent inSeptember. Finance Minister said “We should try to engage the countries innegotiations and build up a consensus through which the matter can be resolved andit cannot be resolved through confrontation.” The International Monetary Fundraised its 2010 economic growth forecast for India to 9.7 percent from 9.4 percent,citing strengthening local consumer demand.

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Since we have already seen a huge run up in the broader indices meaning moreparticipation coming from large cap stocks so now going forward we may expectmore activity in mid and small cap stocks. The result season is starting in the comingweek and corporate would give their guidance for the rest of the year which wouldset the future undertone of the markets. Nifty has support between 5950-5870 and Sensex between 19640-19200 levels.What a stunning rally gold has enjoyed recently on fear of inflation. It has hit many records in fewer days.

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Silver was not behind, it made life time high of `34898 on MCX and breached the mark of `35000 in spot market. Talk of quantitative easing by US and rate cut by BoJ are creating anxiety over currency devaluation and long-terminflation is keeping gold and silver on remarkable run up. After witnessing the bigswings of both side, we can say that trend of crude oil is little bit in indecision mode.However, bias should be on upside. Michigan Confidence, CPI and advance retailsales data of US may further provide the direction to metals and energy. Industrialmetals which have made upper trading range last week, are likely to trade up onweakening dollar index.

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Binani Inds to Buy Public Holding in Cement Unit

Binani Industries Ltd said on Wednesday it received board approvals to acquire the entire public holding in its unit Binani Cement, sending shares of both companies soaring.

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In a separate statement, Binani Cement said it will voluntarily delist equity shares from both BSE and NSE, after getting shareholders’ approval. Its shares rose as much as 20% on the news, while the parent’s stock rose 16%.

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Traders expect that the purchase price would be decided using a reverse book-building method, which pushed up the stock price, said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capitals.

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In reverse book-building, shareholders can indicate the price at which they will tender the shares, he added.

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As on June 30, promoters hold 51.28% stake, while non-institutions hold 41.75%, institutions 6.97% and foreign institutional investors hold 2.10%, BSE data showed.

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Binani Group is into manufacturing of cement, zinc, glass fibre and downstream composites.

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Binani Industries would have to spend over Rs 700 crore to acquire the entire shareholding at the current share price, Thunuguntla said, adding that this would be part of Binani Industries internal restructuring plan.

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Shares of the Binani Cement closed up 14.41% at Rs 95.65, while that of Binani Industries closed 11.4% up at Rs 121.45 in a strong Mumbai market.

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Source:Moneycontrol

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BHEL trades in red despite bagging order worth Rs 3700 crore

Bharat Heavy Electricals(BHEL)is currently trading at Rs. 2,661.50, down by 4.95 points or 0.19% from its previous closing of Rs 2,648.60 on the BSE.

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The scrip opened at Rs 2,668.40 and has touched a high and low of Rs 2,695.00 and Rs 2,655.75 respectively. So far 77,003 shares were traded on the counter.

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The BSE group ‘A’ stock of face value Rs 10 has touched a 52 week high of Rs 2,695.00 on 07-Oct-2010 and a 52 week low of Rs 2,105.00 on 04-Nov-2009.

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Last one week high and low of the scrip stood at Rs 2,695.00 and Rs 2,489.00 respectively. The current market cap of the company is Rs 1,30,334.70 crore.

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The promoters holding in the company stood at 67.72% while Institutions and Non-Institutions held 26.19% and 6.09% respectively.

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State run, Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) has bagged an order from Karnataka Power Corporation (KPCL) valued at Rs 3700 crore. The order bagged is for setting up the 700 MW Supercritical Unit-3 at Bellary Thermal Power Station (TPS) in Karnataka, on turnkey basis. Bellary TPS is already equipped with a BHEL-built 500 MW thermal set (Unit-1) while Unit-2 also of 500 MW, is presently under execution by BHEL.

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With the present order, BHEL has maintained its track record of bagging most of the orders for power generating equipment in Karnataka. The company for bagging this order outbid domestic rival Larsen & Toubro (L&T) under the stiff International Competitive Bidding (ICB).

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In Karnataka, BHEL is also executing the 2×800 MW Yeramarus supercritical TPS of Raichur Power Corporation (RPCL), a joint venture between KPCL and BHEL, which has been set up to build, own and operate supercritical thermal power plants in Karnataka. The company, in total, has commissioned about 5,000 MW of power generating sets in the state, which include thermal as well as hydro units of various ratings.

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Biocon leads the gainers of group ‘A’ on BSE

Biocon is currently trading at Rs 402.75 , up by 22.10 points or 5.81% from its previous closing of Rs 381.85 on the BSE.

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The scrip opened at Rs. 380.65 and has touched a new high of Rs 412.00 and low of Rs 380.65 respectively. So far 820961 shares were traded on the counter.

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The BSE group ‘A’ stock of face value Rs. 5 has touched a 52 week high of Rs 412 on 04-Oct-2010 and a 52 week low of Rs 230.10 on 03-Nov-2009.

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Last one week high and low of the scrip stood at Rs 412.00 and Rs 362.40 respectively. The current market cap of the company is Rs. 8192.00 crore.

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The promoters holding in the company stood at 60.92% while Institutions and Non-Institutions held 17.03% and 22.05% respectively.

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The other top gainers of BSE group ‘A’ were Adani Enterprise up by 4.05%, IRB Infra up by 3.95%, Tata Global Beverages up by 3.80% and Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Service up by 3.69%.

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COMMODITY WEEKLY COMMENTARY 4th – 8th October

Once again international gold prices tested their new highs last week as prices breached the psychological level of $1300 and silver marked the 30 year high on COMEX division. However local gold prices were mostly remained sideways during the week amid stronger rupee and profit booking which limited the upside in prices.

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Nevertheless, silver once again overshadowed gold movements and surged high to claim 33000 mark on MCX. In base metal pack copper along with nickel, zinc and lead started the week with positive energy but dull economic data from U.S and Europe economies pressurized the prices in later part. However improved Chinese  manufacturing data once again underpinned the prices and supported copper and nickel to end the week in green zone.

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Earlier, shanghai copper dropped to its lowest in more than a month last week as China’s move to curb property prices dented sentiment, but losses were limited by improving demand prospects and ongoing weakness in the dollar. In energy counter crude oil settled up last week helped by data showing a drop in U.S. crude and product inventories.

Further fall in dollar index also helped the prices to move up. U.S. crude stocks fell 475,000 barrels last week, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. U.S. distillate inventories fell by 1.27 million barrels in the week to Sept. 24, counter to analyst expectations for a 300,000 barrel build.

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In agro commodities spices pack witnessed see saw moves during the week and remained volatile. Pepper futures ended the week with negative impression amid weak exports and low trading activity. As per Spices Board data, pepper exports from India have gone down by 5% in volume term during April-August 2010 as compared to same period last year. Jeera futures also traded on a negative note during the week on extended selling pressure backed by weak domestic and export demand. Expectations of rise in acreage under jeera crop this season have also supported the down side.

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In oil seeds section soya bean and mustard remained under pressure as factors like bumper soya crop expectation and pick up in fresh arrivals to the spot market led the market to show a negative trend. The chana futures traded on a positive note for most part of the week retreating from previous losses on fresh buying from retail sector.

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Weekly Update 4th – 8th October 2010

Global markets closed on a mixed note in the week gone by, with Indian markets closing in positive on weekly basis. To send a message to China to raise value of its currency, the U.S. House of Representatives this week approved a bill that would let domestic companies petition for duties on imports from China to compensate for the effect of weak yuan. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said he is confident that tensions over China’s currency, the yuan, won’t lead to escalating trade sanctions or feed into a broader global currency conflict.

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European confidence in the economic outlook unexpectedly improved this month. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 euro nations rose to 103.2, the highest since January 2008, from a revised 102.3 in August. The European Commission forecasted a more “moderate” expansion in the second half of the year as governments from Ireland to Portugal step up spending cuts to push down deficits. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said that there is “continuing uncertainty” about the outlook.

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China’s manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in four months in September. According to China’s logistics federation and statistics bureau, the purchasing managers’ index rose to 53.8 from 51.7 in August. The data is viewed very positively by the market as it shows that China’s economic momentum may counter weakness in the global recovery. It is believed that growth may be further aided in coming months as government plans to speed the completion of stimulus projects and boost public housing construction.

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In Japan, the jobless rate fell to 5.1 percent from 5.2 percent. After intervening few days back in the foreign exchange market in order to stem the yen appreciation, Japan’s Finance Minister reiterated that Japan is ready to keep intervening after selling yen for the first time in six years last month.

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Core infrastructure industry that account for 26.7 percent of industrial output in India slowed to 3.7 per cent in August, as compared to 6.4 per cent in the same month last year. Going forward we expect the markets would remain firm as it is supported by strong portfolio investments. The best strategy to ride the tide would be stay invested. Nifty has support between 5940-5870 and Sensex between 19640-
19200 levels.

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Bullions may continue to lead the charge in the commodities counter as both silver and gold recently tested life time highs in MCX. The latest boon to the metal has been increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will further ease monetary policy with measures including the purchase of Treasuries. Jitters about European sovereign debt problems have also supported gold higher as a safe-haven investment. Better jobless claims data and a revised upward GDP in US supported the crude counter which can make further gains in next coming week. Base metals will take cues from LME as China markets will remain closed for a week. In agro counter pulses along with oilseeds may trade in range while spices can get some support from upcoming festive season. Mentha oil firm export demand and low crop will assist the prices to make fresh high in MCX.

IDFC leads the gainers of group ‘A’ on BSE

Infrastructure Development Finance Company (IDFC) is currently trading at Rs 204.80, up by 9.15 points or 4.68% from its previous closing of Rs 195.65 on the BSE.

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The scrip opened at Rs 197.00 and has touched a high and low of Rs 205.30 and Rs. 196.00 respectively. So far 1985833 shares were traded on the counter.

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The BSE group ‘A’ stock of face value Rs 10 has touched a 52 week high of Rs 201.05 on 16-Sep-2010 and a 52 week low of Rs 139.80 on 04-Nov-2009.

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Last one week high and low of the scrip stood at Rs 205.30 and Rs 191.10 respectively. The current market cap of the company is Rs 29243.72 crore.

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The Institutions holding in the company stood at 86.68% and Non institution were holding 13.32% of stake respectively.

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The other top gainers of BSE group ‘A’ were DLF up by 4.86%, Centeral Bank up by 4.58%, Aban Offshore up by 4.57%, Federal Bank up by 4.48% and Everest Kanto up by 4.38%

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The Institutions and Non-Institutions holding in the company stood at 86.68% and 13.32% respectively.

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Infrastructure Development Finance Company (IDFC) is planning to mop up about Rs 3,400 crore via issue of long-term bonds which is expected to open in the first week of October. In this regard, the company has already filed the draft papers with the market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).

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According to the Draft Shelf Prospectus, the said bonds will have the face value of Rs 5,000 and some part will be utilized for infrastructure lending. This will be the first public issue under the new rule that allows tax benefits for investment in long-term infrastructure bonds.

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The company has reported a net profit of Rs 319.71 crore for the quarter ending on June 30, 2010 against Rs 243.49 crore for the quarter ending on June 30, 2009, up 31.30%.

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The company provides financial assistance to various segments such as power, roads, ports, telecommunications, information technology, urban infrastructure, healthcare, education infrastructure, food and agri-business infrastructure, healthcare and tourism.

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